Commodities are caught in a global trade war: How bad could it get? By Investing.com
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 20 2025
0mins
Should l Buy VALE?
Source: Investing.com
Impact of Trade War on Commodities: The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, exacerbated by Donald Trump's re-election, are causing significant volatility in global commodities markets, with RBC Capital Markets warning of potential sharp declines in prices and earnings for mining companies if the situation worsens.
Sector Vulnerability and Market Response: Many commodities are already retreating from recent highs, with base metals producers facing the most risk due to their higher cost positions; the broader market has reacted negatively, with notable declines in stock indices related to these sectors.
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Analyst Views on VALE
Wall Street analysts forecast VALE stock price to fall
13 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 17.380
Low
12.00
Averages
13.93
High
15.50
Current: 17.380
Low
12.00
Averages
13.93
High
15.50
About VALE
Vale SA, formerly Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, is a Brazil-based metal and mining company which is primarily engaged in producing iron ore and nickel. The Company also produces iron ore pellets, copper, platinum group metals (PGMs), gold, silver and cobalt. Vale is engaged in greenfield mineral exploration in five countries and operates logistics systems in Brazil and other regions in the world, including railroads, maritime terminals and ports, which are integrated with mining operations. In addition, Vale has distribution centers to support the delivery of iron ore worldwide. Vale has numerous subsidiaries, including Vale Logistica Uruguay SA, Vale Holdings BV, Vale Overseas Ltd. The Company’s operations abroad cover approximately 30 countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Vale Set to Release Q4 Earnings on February 12
- Earnings Announcement: Vale is scheduled to announce its Q4 earnings on February 12 after market close, with consensus EPS estimate at $0.63 and revenue expected at $10.87 billion, indicating strong investor interest in the company's performance.
- Earnings Estimate Revisions: Over the past three months, Vale's EPS estimates have seen two upward revisions with no downward adjustments, reflecting growing analyst confidence in the company's profitability, which could positively impact its stock price.
- Revenue Estimate Adjustments: Similarly, revenue estimates have experienced four upward revisions without any downward changes, showcasing market optimism regarding the company's future sales growth, potentially attracting more investor attention.
- Iron Ore Production Increase: Vale's iron ore output rose by 3% in 2025, surpassing Rio Tinto's Pilbara for the first time in seven years, indicating enhanced competitiveness in the iron ore market that may boost its market share and profitability.
See More
Earnings Season Trading Strategy Analysis
- Earnings Season Strategy: Traders should avoid holding positions during earnings releases, as it resembles a coin flip with high risks, and instead focus on trading opportunities before the earnings report to enhance success rates.
- Astera Labs' Strong Performance: Astera Labs (NASDAQ:ALAB) achieved a 100% win rate over the last four quarters, with an average gain of 65.06% by buying call options one week before earnings, showcasing its robust market performance and investment potential.
- Stable Returns from Petrobras: Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (NYSE:PBR) maintained a 75% win rate over the last four quarters, with an average return of 49.41%, indicating the effectiveness of pre-earnings trading strategies, although not all trades were profitable.
- Success Patterns of Vale and Oracle: Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) and Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) both demonstrated a 75% success rate during earnings season, with average returns of 45.12% and 41.95% respectively, reflecting stable profit patterns and repeatable trading strategies.
See More
Market Movements Ahead of U.S. Mining Conference
- Mining Stocks Surge: Ahead of the upcoming U.S. mining conference, MP Materials saw a 9.3% increase, with a nearly 30% rise year-to-date in 2026, indicating heightened market interest and demand for critical minerals, which may drive future investments and expansions for the company.
- Software Sector Decline: The S&P Software and Services sector dropped nearly 4% on Tuesday, with Cognizant plummeting 10%, reflecting investor concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence, which could undermine confidence in software companies and affect their growth potential moving forward.
- Walmart Hits $1 Trillion Market Cap: Walmart crossed the $1 trillion market cap for the first time on Tuesday, with shares up 25% over the past three months, indicating a strong recovery in the retail sector under new CEO John Furner, which may attract more investor interest.
- Biotech Earnings Reports Ahead: Eli Lilly and AbbVie are set to report earnings on
See More
Mining Stocks Surge as Gold and Silver Hit Record Highs
- Gold Price Surge: February gold futures hit a record high of $5,100 per ounce on Sunday, reflecting heightened investor demand for gold as a safe haven during uncertain times, which may further drive up mining stocks.
- Silver Price Highs: March silver futures reached $115.5 per ounce the following day, indicating a close correlation with gold prices that could attract more investors to the precious metals market.
- Strong Mining Stock Performance: The iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF reached an all-time high of $59.58 on Monday, demonstrating strong market interest in mining stocks, although analysts express mixed views on sustainability.
- Shifting Market Sentiment: Despite mining stocks rising 20% to 50% over the past six months, a Citi report indicates buy ratings have dropped from 70 to 60, reflecting concerns over iron ore prices and the diminishing attractiveness of valuations.
See More
Vale Reports 2.6% Increase in 2025 Iron Ore Production
- Production Growth: Vale (VALE) reported a 2.6% year-over-year increase in 2025 iron ore production to 336.1 million metric tons, surpassing rival Rio Tinto's (RIO) output for the first time since 2018, indicating a significant recovery in the company's operations.
- Quarterly Performance: In Q4, Vale's iron ore production rose 6% year-over-year to 90.4 million tons, driven by strong performance at the Brucutu mine and the ongoing ramp-up of the Capanema and VGR1 projects, showcasing the company's positive progress in capacity recovery.
- Copper and Nickel Production: Q4 copper production increased by 6% to 108.1 thousand tons, marking the highest quarterly output since 2018, reflecting record production levels at the Salobo mine, while nickel production rose by 2% to 46.2 thousand tons, further enhancing the company's metal production capabilities.
- Industry Competition: Vale lost its position as the world's largest iron ore producer in 2019 due to the Brumadinho dam collapse, and this production rebound not only boosts market confidence but also lays a solid foundation for the company's future growth.
See More
Vale Halts Operations at Two Brazil Units, Impacting Iron Ore Outlook
- Operational Halt: Vale has suspended operations at its Fabrica and Viga units in Brazil due to water overflow, which together contribute approximately 8 million tons to the company's iron ore production outlook, representing about 2% of this year's forecast.
- Regulatory Actions: The city of Congonhas has ordered the suspension of operating permits for these units and the implementation of emergency measures, although Vale has reaffirmed its FY 2026 iron ore production guidance of 335 million to 345 million metric tons.
- Short-term Stock Pressure: Analysts indicate that while the incident may negatively impact Vale's short-term share performance, this is primarily due to
See More
Vale Set to Release Q4 Earnings on February 12
- Earnings Announcement: Vale is scheduled to announce its Q4 earnings on February 12 after market close, with consensus EPS estimate at $0.63 and revenue expected at $10.87 billion, indicating strong investor interest in the company's performance.
- Earnings Estimate Revisions: Over the past three months, Vale's EPS estimates have seen two upward revisions with no downward adjustments, reflecting growing analyst confidence in the company's profitability, which could positively impact its stock price.
- Revenue Estimate Adjustments: Similarly, revenue estimates have experienced four upward revisions without any downward changes, showcasing market optimism regarding the company's future sales growth, potentially attracting more investor attention.
- Iron Ore Production Increase: Vale's iron ore output rose by 3% in 2025, surpassing Rio Tinto's Pilbara for the first time in seven years, indicating enhanced competitiveness in the iron ore market that may boost its market share and profitability.
See More
Earnings Season Trading Strategy Analysis
- Earnings Season Strategy: Traders should avoid holding positions during earnings releases, as it resembles a coin flip with high risks, and instead focus on trading opportunities before the earnings report to enhance success rates.
- Astera Labs' Strong Performance: Astera Labs (NASDAQ:ALAB) achieved a 100% win rate over the last four quarters, with an average gain of 65.06% by buying call options one week before earnings, showcasing its robust market performance and investment potential.
- Stable Returns from Petrobras: Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (NYSE:PBR) maintained a 75% win rate over the last four quarters, with an average return of 49.41%, indicating the effectiveness of pre-earnings trading strategies, although not all trades were profitable.
- Success Patterns of Vale and Oracle: Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) and Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) both demonstrated a 75% success rate during earnings season, with average returns of 45.12% and 41.95% respectively, reflecting stable profit patterns and repeatable trading strategies.
See More
Market Movements Ahead of U.S. Mining Conference
- Mining Stocks Surge: Ahead of the upcoming U.S. mining conference, MP Materials saw a 9.3% increase, with a nearly 30% rise year-to-date in 2026, indicating heightened market interest and demand for critical minerals, which may drive future investments and expansions for the company.
- Software Sector Decline: The S&P Software and Services sector dropped nearly 4% on Tuesday, with Cognizant plummeting 10%, reflecting investor concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence, which could undermine confidence in software companies and affect their growth potential moving forward.
- Walmart Hits $1 Trillion Market Cap: Walmart crossed the $1 trillion market cap for the first time on Tuesday, with shares up 25% over the past three months, indicating a strong recovery in the retail sector under new CEO John Furner, which may attract more investor interest.
- Biotech Earnings Reports Ahead: Eli Lilly and AbbVie are set to report earnings on
See More
Mining Stocks Surge as Gold and Silver Hit Record Highs
- Gold Price Surge: February gold futures hit a record high of $5,100 per ounce on Sunday, reflecting heightened investor demand for gold as a safe haven during uncertain times, which may further drive up mining stocks.
- Silver Price Highs: March silver futures reached $115.5 per ounce the following day, indicating a close correlation with gold prices that could attract more investors to the precious metals market.
- Strong Mining Stock Performance: The iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF reached an all-time high of $59.58 on Monday, demonstrating strong market interest in mining stocks, although analysts express mixed views on sustainability.
- Shifting Market Sentiment: Despite mining stocks rising 20% to 50% over the past six months, a Citi report indicates buy ratings have dropped from 70 to 60, reflecting concerns over iron ore prices and the diminishing attractiveness of valuations.
See More
Vale Reports 2.6% Increase in 2025 Iron Ore Production
- Production Growth: Vale (VALE) reported a 2.6% year-over-year increase in 2025 iron ore production to 336.1 million metric tons, surpassing rival Rio Tinto's (RIO) output for the first time since 2018, indicating a significant recovery in the company's operations.
- Quarterly Performance: In Q4, Vale's iron ore production rose 6% year-over-year to 90.4 million tons, driven by strong performance at the Brucutu mine and the ongoing ramp-up of the Capanema and VGR1 projects, showcasing the company's positive progress in capacity recovery.
- Copper and Nickel Production: Q4 copper production increased by 6% to 108.1 thousand tons, marking the highest quarterly output since 2018, reflecting record production levels at the Salobo mine, while nickel production rose by 2% to 46.2 thousand tons, further enhancing the company's metal production capabilities.
- Industry Competition: Vale lost its position as the world's largest iron ore producer in 2019 due to the Brumadinho dam collapse, and this production rebound not only boosts market confidence but also lays a solid foundation for the company's future growth.
See More
Vale Halts Operations at Two Brazil Units, Impacting Iron Ore Outlook
- Operational Halt: Vale has suspended operations at its Fabrica and Viga units in Brazil due to water overflow, which together contribute approximately 8 million tons to the company's iron ore production outlook, representing about 2% of this year's forecast.
- Regulatory Actions: The city of Congonhas has ordered the suspension of operating permits for these units and the implementation of emergency measures, although Vale has reaffirmed its FY 2026 iron ore production guidance of 335 million to 345 million metric tons.
- Short-term Stock Pressure: Analysts indicate that while the incident may negatively impact Vale's short-term share performance, this is primarily due to
See More
