CEO Anzalone: Q4 Book Value Per Share Increases to $8.72
CEO John Anzalone said, "During Q4, financial conditions improved, underpinned by two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, robust corporate earnings and strong economic growth. This supportive backdrop, along with lower interest rate volatility and broadening investor demand, drove notable outperformance in Agency RMBS relative to Treasuries across the coupon stack. Additionally, swap spreads continued their widening trend, providing an additional positive contribution to performance. These factors led to a 3.7% increase in book value per common share to $8.72 at quarter end, and when combined with our increased dividend of 36c, resulted in a positive economic return of 8.0% for the quarter. We modestly increased our debt-to-equity ratio to 7.0x as of quarter end, up from 6.7x as of September 30, 2025, reflecting the improved investment environment and enabling the company to further benefit from positive Agency RMBS performance...Given the meaningful decline in interest rate volatility, we remain constructive on Agency RMBS, though we view near-term risks as balanced following the sector's strong performance, reinforced by the recent announcements that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will purchase $200B in Agency RMBS. In addition, Agency CMBS continues to offer attractive risk-adjusted yields and diversification benefits, given its stable cash flow profile and lower sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations. Longer term, the environment for Agency MBS investments is likely to remain favorable given reduced interest rate volatility and expectations for broadening investor demand and a steeper yield curve."
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Invesco Mortgage Capital Set to Release Q4 Earnings on January 29
- Earnings Announcement: Invesco Mortgage Capital is set to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on January 29 after market close, with consensus estimates predicting an EPS of $0.56 and revenue of $47.99 million, indicating investor interest in the company's financial performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, IVR has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time but has not surpassed revenue estimates, reflecting volatility in the company's profitability.
- Expectation Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen three upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates have had one upward revision with no downward adjustments, suggesting increased market confidence in the company's future performance.
- Asset Value Growth: Invesco Mortgage Capital's book value has increased by at least 6% since Q3, with a 4.5% rise amid easing policies, providing a positive outlook for the company's prospects in the agency mortgage sector.
Invesco Mortgage Capital Reports Q4 2025 Earnings
- Earnings Performance: Invesco Mortgage Capital reported Q4 2025 earnings per share of $0.56, meeting analyst expectations but down from $0.58 a year earlier, indicating increased market competition pressures.
- Net Interest Income: Effective net interest income rose slightly to $47.7 million in Q4, above last year's $46.8 million but below the expected $48.0 million, reflecting challenges in the interest rate environment.
- Expense Control: Total expenses decreased to $4.57 million, down from $4.78 million in Q4 2024, indicating some success in cost management, which helps enhance profitability.
- Asset Value Growth: As of December 31, 2025, book value per share increased to $8.72, up from $8.41 on September 30, 2025, demonstrating the robustness of the company's assets and a recovery in market confidence.
