CEO Anzalone: Q4 Book Value Per Share Increases to $8.72
CEO John Anzalone said, "During Q4, financial conditions improved, underpinned by two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, robust corporate earnings and strong economic growth. This supportive backdrop, along with lower interest rate volatility and broadening investor demand, drove notable outperformance in Agency RMBS relative to Treasuries across the coupon stack. Additionally, swap spreads continued their widening trend, providing an additional positive contribution to performance. These factors led to a 3.7% increase in book value per common share to $8.72 at quarter end, and when combined with our increased dividend of 36c, resulted in a positive economic return of 8.0% for the quarter. We modestly increased our debt-to-equity ratio to 7.0x as of quarter end, up from 6.7x as of September 30, 2025, reflecting the improved investment environment and enabling the company to further benefit from positive Agency RMBS performance...Given the meaningful decline in interest rate volatility, we remain constructive on Agency RMBS, though we view near-term risks as balanced following the sector's strong performance, reinforced by the recent announcements that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will purchase $200B in Agency RMBS. In addition, Agency CMBS continues to offer attractive risk-adjusted yields and diversification benefits, given its stable cash flow profile and lower sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations. Longer term, the environment for Agency MBS investments is likely to remain favorable given reduced interest rate volatility and expectations for broadening investor demand and a steeper yield curve."
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- Dividend Announcement: Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.12 per share for February 2026, to be paid on March 13, 2026, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder returns amidst current market conditions.
- Financial Data Update: As of January 31, 2026, the estimated book value per share is calculated by subtracting $170.5 million in liquidation preference from total stockholders' equity of 80.7 million shares, indicating robust asset-liability management.
- Economic Debt-to-Equity Ratio: The company's economic debt-to-equity ratio, as of January 31, 2026, is based on $963.7 million in repurchase agreements and TBAs, providing investors with insights into the company's leverage and risk assessment.
- Portfolio Composition: As of January 31, 2026, the total fair value of the investment portfolio is $7,088,797 thousand, with 86.4% in MBS investments, showcasing the company's strong presence and diversified strategy in the mortgage-backed securities market.
- Dividend Declaration: Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. announced a cash dividend of $0.12 per share for February 2026, to be paid on March 13, 2026, which reflects the company's ongoing ability to generate stable cash flows and enhances investor confidence.
- Portfolio Size: As of January 31, 2026, the company's total investment portfolio reached $7.1 billion, including $510.7 million in unrestricted cash and investments, indicating robust liquidity management that aids in navigating market fluctuations.
- Leverage Metrics: The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 6.1x, with an economic debt-to-equity ratio of 7.1x, reflecting a cautious approach to leveraging investments, which helps maintain financial stability.
- Portfolio Yield: As of January 31, 2026, the weighted average yield of the company's investment portfolio was 5.34%, demonstrating its ability to generate returns in the current interest rate environment, thereby strengthening its competitive position in the REIT market.
- Improved Financial Conditions: Invesco reported an 8% economic return for Q4 2025, with a 3.7% increase in book value per share to $8.72, supported by two Federal Reserve rate cuts and a solid economic growth environment, indicating strong performance amidst favorable financial conditions.
- Portfolio Expansion: By year-end, Invesco's portfolio grew to $6.3 billion, including $5.4 billion in agency mortgages and $900 million in agency CMBS, with a robust liquidity position of $453 million in unrestricted cash and unencumbered assets, ensuring future investment capabilities.
- Leverage Strategy Adjustment: The company modestly increased leverage to 7x, reflecting confidence in the current investment environment, as management believes that agency mortgages remain optimistic due to low volatility and strong supply-demand dynamics.
- Risks and Outlook: Management noted that near-term risks are balanced following strong recent performance, and they expect to continue benefiting from low interest rate volatility and further steepening of the yield curve, maintaining a positive outlook on agency mortgages.
- Earnings Performance: Invesco Mortgage Capital reported Q4 2025 earnings per share of $0.56, meeting analyst expectations but down from $0.58 a year earlier, indicating increased market competition pressures.
- Net Interest Income: Effective net interest income rose slightly to $47.7 million in Q4, above last year's $46.8 million but below the expected $48.0 million, reflecting challenges in the interest rate environment.
- Expense Control: Total expenses decreased to $4.57 million, down from $4.78 million in Q4 2024, indicating some success in cost management, which helps enhance profitability.
- Asset Value Growth: As of December 31, 2025, book value per share increased to $8.72, up from $8.41 on September 30, 2025, demonstrating the robustness of the company's assets and a recovery in market confidence.
- Financial Performance Boost: Invesco reported a 3.7% increase in book value per share to $8.72 for Q4 2025, indicating significant financial improvement supported by Fed rate cuts and strong economic growth, which is expected to enhance investor confidence.
- Dividend Increase: The company announced an increase in its quarterly dividend to $0.36 per share and plans to shift from quarterly to monthly payments, which is anticipated to attract more investors and enhance shareholder returns.
- Portfolio Expansion: As of December 31, 2025, Invesco's total investment portfolio reached $6.3 billion, with $5.4 billion in Agency RMBS and $0.9 billion in Agency CMBS, demonstrating the company's strong position in the mortgage-backed securities market.
- Leverage Increase: The company's debt-to-equity ratio rose to 7.0x at the end of Q4 2025, up from 6.7x in Q3 2025, reflecting the company's proactive use of leverage to enhance returns in an improved investment environment.
- Earnings Announcement: Invesco Mortgage Capital is set to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on January 29 after market close, with consensus estimates predicting an EPS of $0.56 and revenue of $47.99 million, indicating investor interest in the company's financial performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, IVR has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time but has not surpassed revenue estimates, reflecting volatility in the company's profitability.
- Expectation Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen three upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates have had one upward revision with no downward adjustments, suggesting increased market confidence in the company's future performance.
- Asset Value Growth: Invesco Mortgage Capital's book value has increased by at least 6% since Q3, with a 4.5% rise amid easing policies, providing a positive outlook for the company's prospects in the agency mortgage sector.










