Castle Biosciences Publishes DecisionDx-Melanoma Study Results
Castle Biosciences announced the publication of results from the largest prospective, multicenter study to date evaluating DecisionDx-Melanoma's integrated sentinel lymph node biopsy test result. The paper, available in Future Oncology, confirms that DecisionDx-Melanoma's i31-SLNB identifies patients below the 5% National Comprehensive Cancer Network threshold for forgoing sentinel lymph node biopsy and outperforms traditional staging criteria and other predictive gene expression profile tests. Current NCCN Cutaneous Melanoma Guidelines recommend forgoing SLNB when the likelihood of SLN positivity is less than 5%, considering SLNB when risk is between 5-10% and offering the procedure when risk exceeds 10%. DecisionDx-Melanoma's i31-SLNB integrates the independently validated 31-GEP score with established clinicopathologic factors, including Breslow thickness, ulceration, mitotic rate and age, to generate a personalized likelihood of SLN positivity that supports decision-making aligned with these guideline thresholds. In this prospective, multicenter study of 912 patients with T1-T4 cutaneous melanoma enrolled across 30 U.S. centers, 430 patients underwent SLNB and 482 did not, allowing for evaluation of both nodal positivity and recurrence outcomes. Among patients who underwent SLNB: Patients with less than 5% predicted risk of SLN positivity by DecisionDx-Melanoma's i31-SLNB had an actual SLN positivity rate of 2.6%. Patients with greater than 10% predicted risk had an SLN positivity rate of 21.4%, an 8.2-fold greater likelihood. In early-stage disease where SLNB decision-making is often most nuanced: Among patients with T1-T2a tumors, SLN positivity was only 1.8% in those with an i31-SLNB less than 5% predicted risk. In contrast, SLN positivity was 16.7% in those with greater than 10% predicted risk by i31-SLNB, a 9.3-fold greater likelihood. All patients with a low-risk i31-SLNB result who had at least two years of follow up demonstrated a 97.8% three-year RFS rate, indicating a very low risk of recurrence. Beyond nodal positivity rates, the study also evaluated performance relative to established guideline benchmarks and other predictive tests. Table 3 from the manuscript reports true-negative to false-negative ratios comparing the standard established by NCCN guidelines which uses American Joint Committee on Cancer staging criteria, DecisionDx-Melanoma's i31-SLNB and other predictive gene expression profile tests, across tumor stages. A TN:FN ratio of 19:1 corresponds to a 5% miss rate, meaning that for every 19 true-negative SLNBs, one positive SLNB would have been missed, consistent with NCCN guideline thresholds. Ratios greater than 19:1 indicate performance exceeding AJCC/NCCN guidance, while ratios below 19:1 indicate higher miss rates. In this study, the i31-SLNB demonstrated a TN:FN ratio of 55:1 in T1-T2a patients and 73:1 in the clinically important T1b-T2a subgroup, exceeding the 19:1 guideline benchmark. By comparison, previously reported data for other predictive GEP tests, including CP-GEP in T1-T2 disease, have shown lower TN:FN ratios. These findings highlight the ability of the i31-SLNB to more precisely identify patients at low risk of SLN positivity while minimizing missed positive nodes, particularly in early-stage tumors where accurate identification below the 5% threshold is critical to avoid unnecessary procedures. Overall, the published data confirm that DecisionDx-Melanoma's i31-SLNB can identify patients at sufficiently low risk of nodal positivity to safely forgo SLNB, reducing unnecessary procedures, procedure-related complications and healthcare costs while supporting risk-aligned management.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on CSTL
About CSTL
About the author

- Significant Survival Improvement: Castle Biosciences' DecisionDx-Melanoma test significantly stratifies five-year melanoma-specific survival within AJCC stages, with a 96.7% survival rate for low-risk T1 patients compared to 70.0% for high-risk patients, indicating the test's effectiveness in identifying high-risk patients and guiding clinical decisions.
- Personalized Management Decisions: By incorporating DecisionDx-Melanoma into routine risk assessment, physicians gain biological insights that enable more confident escalation of care for higher-risk patients while avoiding unnecessary interventions for lower-risk patients, thereby optimizing patient management.
- Data Supporting Clinical Application: The study, based on data from 1,868 patients across 22 SEER sites, demonstrates the test's ability to identify high-risk and low-risk patients that AJCC staging alone cannot accurately predict, supporting more precise risk-aligned management decisions.
- Future Research Directions: Castle Biosciences will present detailed findings at the 2026 American Academy of Dermatology Annual Meeting, further advancing personalized treatment and management strategies for melanoma, which is expected to have a profound impact on clinical practice.
- Significant Survival Improvement: Castle Biosciences' DecisionDx-Melanoma test significantly stratifies five-year melanoma-specific survival within AJCC stages, with low-risk T1 patients showing a 96.7% survival rate compared to 70.0% for high-risk patients, indicating the test's effectiveness in identifying high-risk individuals and guiding clinical decisions.
- Personalized Management Decisions: By incorporating DecisionDx-Melanoma into routine risk assessments, physicians gain biological insights that enable them to confidently escalate care for higher-risk patients while avoiding unnecessary interventions for those at lower risk, thereby optimizing patient management.
- Data Supporting Clinical Application: The study is based on data from 1,868 patients across 22 SEER sites, demonstrating that the test provides actionable risk stratification within AJCC subgroups, highlighting the limitations of traditional staging in accurately assessing patient risk.
- Future Research Directions: Castle Biosciences will present detailed findings at the 2026 American Academy of Dermatology Annual Meeting and plans to publish in the Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology, further advancing personalized treatment approaches for melanoma.

- New Data Presentation: Castle Biosciences will present data on the DecisionDx-Melanoma's i31-SLNB test at the 2026 Society of Surgical Oncology Annual Meeting, aiming to predict sentinel lymph node positivity and further validate the test's significance in clinical decision-making.
- Clinical Validation Results: Initial study findings indicate that the test can impact sentinel lymph node biopsy decisions and identify low-risk metastatic patients, thereby optimizing patient management strategies in line with National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk thresholds.
- Personalized Risk Assessment: The i31-SLNB algorithm integrates the 31-GEP score with key clinicopathologic factors to provide a more precise risk estimation than staging alone, supporting personalized shared decision-making and enhancing patient treatment confidence.
- Broad Application Foundation: DecisionDx-Melanoma has been clinically validated in over 10,000 patient samples and has been ordered more than 220,000 times since launch, demonstrating its association with improved patient survival and highlighting its importance in managing cutaneous melanoma.
- New Headquarters Opening: Castle Biosciences will host a grand opening celebration for its new headquarters on March 24, 2026, marking the completion of its investment in Friendswood, with local and national officials expected to attend, highlighting the company's commitment to the community.
- Facility Features: The new 23-acre headquarters includes modern, flexible workspaces and advanced technology infrastructure designed to support the company's ongoing growth and innovation, enhancing employee experience and collaboration.
- Sustainability Focus: The building incorporates energy-efficient systems and storm-rated design elements to enhance sustainability and resilience, reflecting the company's commitment to environmental responsibility while providing amenities like a fitness center and outdoor collaboration spaces for employees.
- Community Engagement: As one of the largest publicly traded companies in Galveston County with $344 million in revenue in 2025, Castle Biosciences has a long history of supporting the Friendswood community, dedicated to improving patient lives and fostering local development.
- Significant Revenue Growth: Castle Biosciences reported fourth-quarter revenue of $87 million and full-year revenue of $344.2 million, exceeding expectations and demonstrating sustained strong performance across core revenue drivers.
- Surge in Test Report Volume: The total test report volume from core revenue drivers increased by 37% to 105,053, with TissueCypher test report volume growing by 86%, indicating the company's strengthening competitive position in the market.
- Successful Product Launch: The AdvanceAD-Tx test saw over half of the initial 150 dermatological accounts placing orders within the first five weeks of clinical availability, with early results exceeding expectations, suggesting strong future market potential.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management guided total revenue for 2026 to be between $340 million and $350 million, primarily driven by continued growth in TissueCypher, reflecting the company's confidence and strategic planning for future market opportunities.
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Castle Biosciences (CSTL) is set to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on February 26 after market close, with investors keenly awaiting the results to gauge the company's future growth potential.
- Earnings Expectations: The consensus EPS estimate stands at -$0.26, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 181.3%, indicating potential profitability challenges that may affect investor sentiment.
- Revenue Forecast Changes: The revenue estimate is projected at $80.31 million, down 6.9% year-over-year; however, the company has surpassed revenue estimates 100% of the time over the past year, showcasing its resilience in the market.
- Estimate Revision Trends: Over the last three months, EPS estimates have seen four upward revisions and no downward adjustments, while revenue estimates experienced five upward revisions and one downward, suggesting analysts' growing confidence in the company's future performance.






