Canadian Natural Resources Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy CNQ?
Source: seekingalpha
- Strong Earnings Performance: Canadian Natural Resources reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of C$0.82, beating expectations by C$0.12, which underscores the company's robust profitability and enhances investor confidence.
- Record Production Levels: The company achieved a total quarterly production of approximately 1,659,000 BOE/d, an increase of 188,000 BOE/d or 13% from Q4/24, indicating significant improvements in resource development and production efficiency.
- Liquid Production Growth: Total liquids production reached approximately 1,215,000 bbl/d, up 125,000 bbl/d or 12% from Q4/24, which not only boosts the company's market share but also strengthens its competitive position in the liquid energy market.
- Capital Expenditure Adjustments: The forecast for total capital expenditures in 2026 has been revised from C$6,425 million to C$6,880 million, reflecting the company's proactive strategy in expansion and acquisitions aimed at supporting future production growth and market demand.
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Analyst Views on CNQ
Wall Street analysts forecast CNQ stock price to fall
9 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 44.130
Low
33.83
Averages
39.17
High
62.00
Current: 44.130
Low
33.83
Averages
39.17
High
62.00
About CNQ
Canadian Natural Resources Limited is a senior crude oil and natural gas production company. The Company has operations in its core areas located in Western Canada, the United Kingdom portion of the North Sea and Offshore Africa. Its Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading segment produces synthetic crude oil through bitumen mining and upgrading operations at Horizon Oil Sands (Horizon) and through the Company's direct and indirect interest in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP). Within Western Canada in the Midstream and Refining segment, the Company maintains certain activities that include pipeline operations, an electricity co-generation system and an investment in the North West Redwater Partnership (NWRP), a general partnership formed to upgrade and refine bitumen in the Province of Alberta. Its Pelican Lake asset is a large, contiguous, shallow, medium crude oil pool. It produces natural gas in western Canada and has a significant land base in both the Montney and Deep Basin.
About the author

Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
- Strong Earnings Performance: Canadian Natural Resources reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of C$0.82, beating expectations by C$0.12, which underscores the company's robust profitability and enhances investor confidence.
- Record Production Levels: The company achieved a total quarterly production of approximately 1,659,000 BOE/d, an increase of 188,000 BOE/d or 13% from Q4/24, indicating significant improvements in resource development and production efficiency.
- Liquid Production Growth: Total liquids production reached approximately 1,215,000 bbl/d, up 125,000 bbl/d or 12% from Q4/24, which not only boosts the company's market share but also strengthens its competitive position in the liquid energy market.
- Capital Expenditure Adjustments: The forecast for total capital expenditures in 2026 has been revised from C$6,425 million to C$6,880 million, reflecting the company's proactive strategy in expansion and acquisitions aimed at supporting future production growth and market demand.
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- Dividend Increase: Canadian Natural Resources has declared a quarterly dividend of CAD 0.625 per share, representing a 6.4% increase from the previous CAD 0.5875, indicating strong cash flow and profitability that boosts investor confidence.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend is payable on April 7, with a record date of March 20 and an ex-dividend date also on March 20, ensuring shareholders receive timely returns, which enhances the company's attractiveness among investors.
- Earnings Beat: The company's non-GAAP EPS of CAD 0.82 exceeded market expectations by CAD 0.12, reflecting strong operational efficiency and demand, which could drive the stock price higher.
- Outlook Update: Canadian Natural Resources has updated its FY26 outlook, demonstrating confidence in future growth, which is likely to attract more long-term investors and further solidify its market position.
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- Dividend Increase: Canadian Natural Resources Limited announces a 6.4% increase in its quarterly cash dividend from $0.5875 to $0.625 per common share, reflecting the company's confidence in its sustainable business model.
- Record of Increases: 2026 marks the 26th consecutive year of dividend increases for the company, with a compound annual growth rate of 20%, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder value supported by a robust asset base and diverse reserves.
- Payment Schedule: The new dividend will be payable on April 7, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 20, 2026, ensuring timely returns for investors and enhancing overall investor confidence.
- Operational Context: As a leading crude oil and natural gas producer, Canadian Natural operates in Western Canada, the U.K. North Sea, and Offshore Africa, showcasing its strong competitive position in the global energy market.
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- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Canadian Natural Resources is set to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on March 5 before market open, with consensus EPS estimated at $0.51, reflecting a significant 45.2% year-over-year decline, and revenue expected at $6.91 billion, indicating pressure on profitability.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Canadian Natural has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time, yet has failed to exceed revenue estimates, highlighting ongoing challenges in revenue growth despite strong earnings performance.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen two upward revisions and six downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced no upward revisions and three downward revisions, reflecting market caution regarding the company's future profitability.
- Market Analysis Perspective: Despite the declining earnings outlook, Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating still categorizes Canadian Natural Resources as a
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- Remarkable Dividend Growth: Since 2001, Canadian Natural Resources has increased its dividend by 9,300%, starting from $0.00625 per share and tripling within five years, demonstrating the company's strong profitability and commitment to shareholder returns.
- Sustained Cash Flow: The company generated $14.8 billion in operating cash flow last year, easily covering the $3.6 billion needed for dividend payments, indicating robust financial health and the ability to continue increasing dividends in the future.
- Industry-Leading Cost Structure: Even with an expected energy glut, Canadian Natural Resources can remain profitable as long as oil prices stay above $21 per barrel, showcasing its competitive advantage in the industry.
- Attractive Yield for Investors: With a current dividend yield of 4.3%, nearly quadruple the S&P 500 average, the company appeals to investors seeking fast-growing and reliable income, further solidifying its market position.
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- Acquisition Talks: Canadian Natural Resources is in discussions to acquire a portfolio of natural gas assets worth over $1 billion from Tourmaline Oil, indicating strong interest in the region's resources.
- Regulatory Approval Filing: The company filed for federal approval with Canada's Competition Bureau on December 30, although specific deal details remain undisclosed, this move underscores its firm acquisition intentions.
- Asset Background: Tourmaline Oil is a major natural gas producer in Canada's Montney Basin, which produces approximately 10 billion cubic feet of natural gas daily, accounting for about half of Canada's total output, highlighting the strategic significance of this transaction.
- Market Dynamics: Interest in the Montney Basin has surged due to the launch of the LNG Canada export terminal in British Columbia last year, further driving attention to the region's economic production potential.
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