Should I Buy CNQ? CNQ 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

37.100

1 Day change

1.17%

52 Week Range

37.110

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

Not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor. CNQ is in a strong uptrend but is stretched near resistance with slowing momentum, while the latest quarter showed sharp YoY profit/EPS deterioration and hedge funds have been heavy net sellers. For an impatient investor, buying here is likely a suboptimal entry versus waiting for a pullback toward ~$35.3 (pivot) or ~$33.8 (S1).

Technical Analysis

Trend is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), confirming an established uptrend. However, near-term conditions look stretched: RSI_6 is 77.3 (overbought/extended) and price (36.885) has pushed above R1 (36.72) and is approaching R2 (37.612), where upside may stall. MACD histogram is positive (0.364) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is fading even though trend remains up. Key levels: support at 35.276 (pivot) then 33.832 (S1); resistance at 37.612 (R2). Pattern-based projection is modestly positive beyond 1 day (about +0.77% next week, +2.97% next month), but the near-term risk/reward at this exact level is less attractive given proximity to resistance. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options positioning is bullish/constructive: both open interest and (especially) daily volume skew to calls (OI put/call 0.51; volume put/call 0.33). Today’s options volume is elevated versus the 30-day average (~128%), which often reflects increased trader attention and can support near-term upside follow-through. Implied volatility (30d ~28.5) is moderately above historical (~24.7) with a mid-range IV percentile (~41.6), indicating sentiment is positive but not at an extreme fear/panic level.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Technicals remain in a clear uptrend (bullish moving-average stack), which can continue to attract trend-following buyers.
Options market skew is notably call-heavy with above-average volume, consistent with bullish sentiment.
Sector backdrop can benefit from geopolitical/supply-side oil risk (noted by JPMorgan), which can keep energy cash flows supported if crude holds up.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Price is extended near resistance (already above R1 and approaching R2) with a contracting MACD histogram and RSI in overbought territory—conditions that often precede a pause/pullback.
Hedge funds are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~9618.75% last quarter), which is a meaningful sentiment/positioning headwind.
Analysts have recently turned more cautious (downgrades/neutral stances) partly due to higher capital spending that may constrain near-term shareholder returns.
Latest quarter showed major YoY declines in net income/EPS and margin compression, which can cap valuation expansion until profitability improves.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to 9.516B (+7.01% YoY), but profitability weakened sharply: net income fell to 0.6B (-73.52% YoY) and EPS dropped to 0.29 (-72.64% YoY). Gross margin declined to 27.87 (-17.42% YoY). The mix of higher revenue but much lower earnings indicates cost/price realization and/or spending pressures; for a long-term investor, this raises the bar for buying aggressively at an extended technical level.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent Street trend is cautious with targets trimmed and ratings drifting toward neutral/hold: Morgan Stanley (Equal Weight) lowered PT to C$50; JPMorgan (Neutral) lowered PT to C$48; Evercore downgraded to In Line (PT C$50) citing higher capex/headwinds to cash returns; Desjardins downgraded to Hold; Goldman kept Buy but cut PT to $35. Wall Street pros: recognized operator with scale; some analysts still see value longer-term (Goldman Buy). Wall Street cons: near-to-mid-term shareholder return pressure from higher capital spending and growth pivot; more muted cash flow expectations under updated oil price decks; overall rating tone is neutral rather than strongly bullish.

9 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CNQ stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CNQ is 39.17 USD with a low forecast of 33.83 USD and a high forecast of 62 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

5 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 36.670

Low

33.83

Averages

39.17

High

Current: 36.670

Low

33.83

Averages

39.17

High

Morgan Stanley

Equal Weight

downgrade

$51 -> $50

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$51 -> $50

AI Analysis

2026-01-23

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Canadian Natural to C$50 from C$51 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm marked its 2026-27 oil price deck for strip as of January 7 in conjunction with its Q4 preview for the E&Ps, oil majors and Canadian producers. The firm expects "fairly clean" Q4 operational updates but lighter cash flow from price realizations, the analyst tells investors in the preview.

JPMorgan

Neutral

downgrade

$49 -> $48

2026-01-20

Reason

JPMorgan

Price Target

$49 -> $48

2026-01-20

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Canadian Natural to C$48 from C$49 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the integrated oils sector as part of its 2026 outlook. The outlook for the group continues to shaped by supply side risks for oil, but a more constructive outlook downstream, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Amid the rise in geopolitical risks, JPMorgan says the U.S. majors screen more attractive than the Canadian integrateds. It cites relative valuations for the rating changes.

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CNQ Should I Buy

CNQ Should I Buy

Should You Buy Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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