The chart below shows how CNQ performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, CNQ sees a +0.30% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.50% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.58%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
Positive
Production Growth Highlights: Strong production growth of approximately 82,100 BOEs per day over the past three years, with a 7% annual production per share CAGR.
Liquids Margin Improvement: Improved liquids margins by reducing operating costs by over $3 per barrel, resulting in an incremental margin of approximately $1.2 billion based on 2024 production.
Shareholder Returns and Dividends: Returned over $11 per share to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, with a 59% increase in annualized quarterly dividend to $2.25 per share.
Record Production Milestone: Achieved record annual total production of approximately 1.36 million BOEs per day, including record liquids production of over 1 million barrels per day.
Oil Sands Production Milestone: Record annual oil sands mining and upgrading production of 472,245 barrels per day, with 99% upgrader utilization in 2024.
Duvernay Acquisition Impact: Acquired Chevron’s 70% operator working interest in the Duvernay, expected to average approximately 60,000 BOEs per day in 2025, contributing to free cash flow.
Thermal Production Efficiency: Achieved a 3% increase in thermal in-situ production, with operating costs down 16% compared to 2023, reflecting lower energy costs and higher production volumes.
Production Capacity Expansion: Increased production capacity at Albion Mines to approximately 592,000 barrels per day, with significant long-term value unlocked since 2017.
Operating Cost Reduction: Achieved a 17% reduction in operating costs on light crude oil and NGLs, averaging $13.55 per barrel in 2024, compared to 2023.
Proved Reserves Increase: Total proved reserves increased by 9% to 15.2 billion BOE, with a reserves replacement ratio of 365% on a total proved basis.
Free Cash Flow Generation: Annual adjusted funds flow of $14.9 billion, with significant free cash flow generation allowing for $7.1 billion returned to shareholders in 2024.
Strong Financial Position: Maintained a strong financial position with a low-to-mid $40 WTI per barrel break-even and strong balance sheet metrics, including debt-to-EBITDA at 1.1x.
Negative
Earnings Miss Report: Canadian Natural Resources Limited misses on earnings expectations, reporting an EPS of $0.66 against expectations of $0.69.
Market Expectations Challenges: Despite strong operational performance, the company faced challenges in meeting market expectations, which may impact investor confidence.
Capital Program Efficiency: The company reported a significant capital program that was approximately $100 million under budget, indicating potential inefficiencies in capital allocation.
Production Success vs. Earnings Miss: While the company achieved record production levels, the missed earnings expectations could overshadow these operational successes.
Acquisition-Driven Growth Concerns: The reliance on acquisitions for growth, such as the Chevron assets, raises concerns about the sustainability of growth without further external investments.
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (NYSE:CNQ) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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