Blackstone Shares and Alternative Managers Plummet as Software Issues Impact Private Credit
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5d ago
0mins
Source: Barron's
Impact on Business Development Companies: Fresh fears surrounding artificial intelligence are negatively affecting the stock prices of business development companies that provide high-rate, private-credit loans to technology firms.
Effect on Alternative Investment Managers: Alternative investment managers with exposure to private credit are also experiencing declines due to these AI-related concerns.
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Analyst Views on OWL
Wall Street analysts forecast OWL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OWL is 21.13 USD with a low forecast of 18.00 USD and a high forecast of 28.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 11.630
Low
18.00
Averages
21.13
High
28.00
Current: 11.630
Low
18.00
Averages
21.13
High
28.00
About OWL
Blue Owl Capital Inc. is an alternative asset management company. The Company deploys private capital across Credit, GP Strategic Capital and Real Estate platforms on behalf of institutional and private wealth clients. Its product platforms include Credit, GP Strategic Capital and Real Estate. Its credit products offer private financing solutions primarily to upper-middle-market companies. Its credit products are offered through a mix of business development companies, long-dated private funds, managed accounts and collateralized loan obligations. It is focused on acquiring equity stakes in or providing debt financing to private capital firms. Its Real Estate products are focused on acquiring triple net lease real estate occupied by investment-grade or creditworthy tenants. Its Real Estate products are offered through Permanent Capital vehicles, including its real estate investment trusts, and long-dated private funds. It offers asset management services to the insurance industry.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Asset Managers Face AI-Driven Shock Amid Software Selloff
- Market Capitalization Loss: The software sector's selloff has wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization, leading the Dow Jones US Asset Managers Index to decline nearly 5% this week, reflecting investor concerns over loan and leverage exposure.
- Declining Private Equity Deal Volumes: Morgan Stanley noted that technology services deal volumes account for nearly 21% of overall private equity activity, with TPG, Carlyle, and KKR slightly above this level, indicating weakened market confidence in software-related investments.
- Rising Loan Risks: Software borrowers are shouldering an average debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 7.4 times, significantly higher than the 5.9 times average across a $1 trillion loan pool studied by KBRA, highlighting the private credit market's heavy reliance on the software sector and its associated risks.
- Portfolio Review: Companies like Ares and KKR are reviewing their portfolios to assess the impact of AI on their software investments, demonstrating a cautious approach among asset managers in the face of market volatility.
See More
The Impact of Software Concerns on Private Credit and Recommended BDC Stocks to Consider
- Private Credit Sector: The emergence of private credit "cockroaches" indicates a shift in the market, particularly affecting the software sector.
- Investment Opportunities: This situation may present new investment opportunities in shares of business development companies that hold the debt of these affected companies.
See More
The Impact of Software Concerns on BDC Stocks: Reasons Some May Be Good Investment Opportunities
- Private Credit Sector: The private credit sector is facing challenges, likened to "cockroaches" emerging from the software industry.
- Opportunities in Business Development Companies: This situation may present investment opportunities in business development companies that hold the debt of affected firms.
See More
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- Market Impact: This adjustment may influence investor sentiment and trading strategies related to Oppenheimer's stock.
See More
Blue Owl Capital Sees No Red Flags in AI Software Disruption
- Strong Software Loan Performance: Co-CEO Marc Lipschultz stated that Blue Owl's software loan book remains robust without any performance declines, with loans averaging 30% of enterprise value and possessing 'huge' equity cushions, indicating the firm's resilience in the tech sector.
- Asset Management Growth: Blue Owl's assets under management (AUM) increased by 22% to $307 billion as of December 31, 2024, primarily driven by new capital commitments and the acquisition of IPI, showcasing the company's strong market appeal.
- Significant Capital Commitments: The firm raised $17 billion in new capital commitments in the recent quarter, totaling $56 billion for the year, reflecting Blue Owl's success in attracting investors and enhancing its financial position.
- Challenges in Private Credit: Despite strong growth, CFO Alan Kirshenbaum noted that the firm is behind its Investor Day goals due to headwinds in private credit, indicating the complexities of the current market environment.
See More
Blue Owl Capital Reports Record Fundraising and Strong Performance in Q4 2025
- Record Fundraising: Blue Owl Capital raised a total of $56 billion in 2025, with over $17 billion raised in Q4 alone, demonstrating significant growth across diversified investment strategies and solidifying its leadership position in the global market.
- Strong Investment Returns: The company reported net lease gross returns exceeding 13% in 2025, with the ORENT product net return at approximately 11%, which not only boosts investor confidence but also lays a strong foundation for future capital inflows.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: Blue Owl declared a fixed annual dividend of $0.92 per share for 2026, translating to a quarterly dividend of $0.23, reflecting the company's commitment to creating shareholder value while maintaining profitability, which is expected to attract more investors.
- Robust Financial Performance: The company reported FRE of $0.27 per share for Q4, with a 12% growth in FRE for the full year, while AUM reached $300 billion, indicating effective strategies in risk management and liquidity that enhance market confidence.
See More
Asset Managers Face AI-Driven Shock Amid Software Selloff
- Market Capitalization Loss: The software sector's selloff has wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization, leading the Dow Jones US Asset Managers Index to decline nearly 5% this week, reflecting investor concerns over loan and leverage exposure.
- Declining Private Equity Deal Volumes: Morgan Stanley noted that technology services deal volumes account for nearly 21% of overall private equity activity, with TPG, Carlyle, and KKR slightly above this level, indicating weakened market confidence in software-related investments.
- Rising Loan Risks: Software borrowers are shouldering an average debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 7.4 times, significantly higher than the 5.9 times average across a $1 trillion loan pool studied by KBRA, highlighting the private credit market's heavy reliance on the software sector and its associated risks.
- Portfolio Review: Companies like Ares and KKR are reviewing their portfolios to assess the impact of AI on their software investments, demonstrating a cautious approach among asset managers in the face of market volatility.
See More
The Impact of Software Concerns on Private Credit and Recommended BDC Stocks to Consider
- Private Credit Sector: The emergence of private credit "cockroaches" indicates a shift in the market, particularly affecting the software sector.
- Investment Opportunities: This situation may present new investment opportunities in shares of business development companies that hold the debt of these affected companies.
See More
The Impact of Software Concerns on BDC Stocks: Reasons Some May Be Good Investment Opportunities
- Private Credit Sector: The private credit sector is facing challenges, likened to "cockroaches" emerging from the software industry.
- Opportunities in Business Development Companies: This situation may present investment opportunities in business development companies that hold the debt of affected firms.
See More
BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC.: OPPENHEIMER LOWERS TARGET PRICE FROM $27 TO $24
- Target Price Adjustment: Blue Owl Capital has reduced its target price for Oppenheimer from $27 to $24.
- Market Impact: This adjustment may influence investor sentiment and trading strategies related to Oppenheimer's stock.
See More
Blue Owl Capital Sees No Red Flags in AI Software Disruption
- Strong Software Loan Performance: Co-CEO Marc Lipschultz stated that Blue Owl's software loan book remains robust without any performance declines, with loans averaging 30% of enterprise value and possessing 'huge' equity cushions, indicating the firm's resilience in the tech sector.
- Asset Management Growth: Blue Owl's assets under management (AUM) increased by 22% to $307 billion as of December 31, 2024, primarily driven by new capital commitments and the acquisition of IPI, showcasing the company's strong market appeal.
- Significant Capital Commitments: The firm raised $17 billion in new capital commitments in the recent quarter, totaling $56 billion for the year, reflecting Blue Owl's success in attracting investors and enhancing its financial position.
- Challenges in Private Credit: Despite strong growth, CFO Alan Kirshenbaum noted that the firm is behind its Investor Day goals due to headwinds in private credit, indicating the complexities of the current market environment.
See More
Blue Owl Capital Reports Record Fundraising and Strong Performance in Q4 2025
- Record Fundraising: Blue Owl Capital raised a total of $56 billion in 2025, with over $17 billion raised in Q4 alone, demonstrating significant growth across diversified investment strategies and solidifying its leadership position in the global market.
- Strong Investment Returns: The company reported net lease gross returns exceeding 13% in 2025, with the ORENT product net return at approximately 11%, which not only boosts investor confidence but also lays a strong foundation for future capital inflows.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: Blue Owl declared a fixed annual dividend of $0.92 per share for 2026, translating to a quarterly dividend of $0.23, reflecting the company's commitment to creating shareholder value while maintaining profitability, which is expected to attract more investors.
- Robust Financial Performance: The company reported FRE of $0.27 per share for Q4, with a 12% growth in FRE for the full year, while AUM reached $300 billion, indicating effective strategies in risk management and liquidity that enhance market confidence.
See More
