OWL Should I Buy
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Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. While the company has shown strong financial growth in the latest quarter, the stock faces significant headwinds, including analyst downgrades, ongoing legal concerns, and bearish technical indicators. The absence of strong proprietary trading signals further diminishes the immediate investment appeal.
The technical indicators for OWL are mixed to bearish. The MACD is positive and expanding, suggesting some bullish momentum. However, the RSI is neutral at 36.301, and the moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading near its pivot level of 8.981, with resistance at 9.297 and support at 8.664. Overall, the technical setup does not indicate a strong buying opportunity.
Hedge funds are significantly increasing their positions in OWL, with a 185.97% increase in buying activity over the last quarter.
Co-CEO Doug Ostrover expressed optimism about stable default rates and revenue growth of 8%-10% in the private credit portfolio.
The company reported strong financial performance in Q4 2025, with revenue up 24.15% YoY and net income up 129.80% YoY.
Pending investor lawsuits regarding liquidity issues, raising concerns about financial health and shareholder confidence.
Analysts have broadly lowered price targets, citing issues such as BDC redemptions, credit market challenges, and AI-driven disruptions.
Negative sentiment in the private capital space and relentless bad press could impact near-term fundraising and valuation.
Bearish technical indicators and lack of proprietary trading signals suggest limited short-term upside.
In Q4 2025, Blue Owl Capital demonstrated strong financial growth. Revenue increased by 24.15% YoY to $748.88 million, net income surged by 129.80% YoY to $47.67 million, and EPS grew by 75.00% YoY to 0.07. However, gross margin remained flat at 0%.
Analyst sentiment is mixed to negative. Several firms, including BMO Capital, TD Cowen, and Barclays, have lowered their price targets, citing challenges in the private credit market and broader macroeconomic uncertainties. While some analysts, such as BofA, see a buying opportunity, the majority view reflects caution and near-term downside risks.
