Bitcoin and Ether ETFs Post $9.15B Outflows, JPMorgan Reaffirms $266K Target
Bitcoinand etherstart March stuck in a post-Iran shock range as corporate treasuries ramp up BTC and ETH accumulation into ETF outflows and macro risk, setting up a tug-of-war between listed "bitcoin standard" plays, tokenization pivots, and mining-to-AI transitions. Stay up on the crypto news that matters with "Crypto Currents," daily from The Fly. Join us at 2 PM ET for your essential briefing on the fast-moving world of cryptocurrency on FlyCast radio.BITCOIN, ETHER ETFS POST $9.15B IN OUTFLOWS AS FEBRUARY TURNS WORST IN A DECADE:U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have seen about $6.39B in net outflows over four straight months, while ether ETFs shed roughly $2.76B, the longest losing streak since launch and a clear sign of cooling institutional appetite for listed products, according toMEXCandChainCatcher. Bitcoin has nearly halved from its October high above $126,000 and ether is down more than 60% from August peaks above $4,950, capping a February where BTC fell about 15% and ETH nearly 20%, both among their weakest February returns in a decade, according toCoinglass data cited by Cointelegraph.JPMORGAN SEES CLARITY ACT AS 2H CATALYST, REAFFIRMS $266K BTC TARGET:JPMorgan'sresearch desk still leans structurally bullish, arguing the CLARITY Act, a comprehensive U.S. crypto market structure bill could be approved by mid-2026 and unlock bank and broker participation, and it reiterates a long-term bitcoin target of $266,000 on a volatility-adjusted gold framework.IRAN STRIKES SHOW BTC TRADING LIKE RISK ASSETS, GOLD OUTPERFORMS:The Iran strikes delivered a live-fire test of the "digital gold" story, and bitcoin failed to decouple from risk assets. BTC dropped 3–4% to around $63,250 immediately after U.S./Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iran, briefly rebounded above $67,000, and is now hovering back near pre-strike levels around the mid-$60Ks, having erased the initial shock move but not the broader February drawdown, according toThe Wall Street JournalandBarron's.Gold has outperformed sharply, climbing more than 5% over three days while bitcoin traded roughly flat, undercutting the hedge narrative and reinforcing BTC's role as a high-beta macro risk asset, according to. Nearly 46% of bitcoin supply, about 9.09M BTC, now sits at an on-chain loss, a profile historically associated with mid-to-late bear phases and heavier pressure on listed proxies like Coinbaseand bitcoin miners when geopolitical volatility spikes, according to.STRATEGY, PROCAP DOUBLE DOWN ON BTC WHILE BITMINE BUILDS $9.9B ETH TREASURY:Strategycontinued to lean into its bitcoin policy, disclosing purchases of 3,015 BTC for $204.1M between February 23 and March 1, funded by at-the-market equity issuance that raised roughly $237M across common and preferred, according to the company'sForm 8‑The company now holds 720,737 BTC at an average cost near $75,985 per coin, well above the current spot price, implying about $7B in unrealized losses, even as the board raised the STRC preferred dividend to 11.5%, its seventh consecutive hike since mid‑2025, according toYahoo Finance.Anthony Pompliano's ProCap Financialadded 450 BTC via structured put assignments with FalconX, taking its treasury to 5,457 BTC while simultaneously repurchasing more than 782K common shares at a discount to NAV and positioning itself as a mid-tier public BTC holder, according to a.On the Ethereum side, Bitmine Immersion Technologiesdisclosed a $9.9B balance sheet anchored by 4,473,587 ETH, about 3.7% of total ETH supply, including 3,040,483 ETH staked and generating an estimated $172M in annualized staking revenue, with chairman Tom Lee explicitly "buying the mini crypto winter" after acquiring roughly 50,928 ETH in the last week, according to.F2POOL FOUNDER BUILDS LARGE ETH POSITION; TETHER SHIFTS $151M IN TOKENIZED GOLD:Ethereum positioning is being reshaped by whales and corporates: Bitmine's on-chain footprint confirms its status as the largest ETH treasury among public companies, while Arkham Intelligence flags a wallet linked to F2Pool founder Chun Wang that withdrew about $67.5M of ETH from Binance over two weeks and now holds roughly $150M of ETH on Aaveafter routing about $240M in stablecoins through exchanges, according toU.Today. In tokenized commodities, Tether moved 28,723 XAUT, around $151M of tokenized gold, to Abraxas Capital, the largest such transfer in nearly three weeks and a data point that rhymes with Neptune Digital Assets' plan to add tokenized gold and silver to its treasury as a volatility buffer alongside BTC and staking assets, according toChainCatcher.ETF FLOWS STAY MIXED AS SOLANA ETP INFLOWS CONTRAST WITH BTC, ETH PROFIT-TAKING:ETF flow trackers show a mixed picture beneath the headline outflows: across 10 bitcoin ETFs and nine ether ETFs, March 2 saw modest single-day net outflows of (548) BTC and (12,307) ETH, but both assets still show sizable seven-day net inflows, suggesting short-term profit-taking rather than a wholesale institutional exit, according toKuCoin's flash note. SolanaETPs are a notable outlier, posting both positive daily and weekly inflows, highlighting residual risk appetite for higher-beta layer‑1 exposure even as large‑cap benchmarks struggle.COINCHECK CLOSES 3IQ DEAL AS BSTR BITCOIN SPAC REVIVES TREASURY LISTING PLAYBOOK:On the infrastructure side, Coincheck Groupclosed its acquisition of roughly 99.8% of Canadian manager 3iQ, adding a pioneer in bitcoin, ether staking, and solana staking ETPs to its franchise and deepening a strategy aimed at global institutional distribution beyond its Japan exchange roots, according to. Cantor Equity Partnersadvanced its BSTR bitcoin SPAC,that would list a dedicated treasury vehicle seeded with 30,021 BTC and around $1.4B in financing instruments under Blockstream CEO Adam Back, even as the broader bitcoin SPAC market has largely gone dormant.FORUM MARKETS DUMPS ETH TREASURY LABEL; JIUZI CHASES $300M CRYPTO-FUNDED PLACEMENT:Forum Markets, the former ETHZilla, began trading today under its new ticker and brand, formally abandoning an Ethereum treasury model that coincided with a roughly 96% share-price collapse and pivoting toward tokenized real‑world asset infrastructure, including fractionalized ownership of commercial jet engines, according to a. Jiuzi Holdingsmeanwhile expanded a crypto-funded private placement from $60M to a targeted $300M to build out on-chain custody and treasury infrastructure, underscoring that for some small caps, crypto remains a capital formation and balance sheet story rather than a pure trading proxy, according to.DIGI POWER X ARMS 200 GOES LIVE AS RIOT EARNINGS TEST MINING-TO-AI STORY:The mining-to-AI narrative continues to build as hashpower-exposed names seek higher-margin compute revenue streams. Digi Power X, a former bitcoin miner, has commissioned its first ARMS 200 modular data center at its Alabama facility and expects GPU-as-a-Service revenue to begin in April 2026, guiding to about $15M in annualized revenue per MW and laying out a roadmap to 10 MW in Alabama by Q3 and additional capacity in New York by Q2, according to apress release carried by the Detroit Free Press.Riot Platformsreports Q4 results after the close today, with the Street looking for low double‑digit revenue growth and a modest EPS loss as investors focus on how quickly its planned 1.7 GW power pipeline and AI/HPC pivot can offset softer bitcoin economics and rising geopolitical risk premia, according to the company'sIR site. With bitcoin having just logged its worst February since 2013 and nearly half of supply at a loss, earnings commentary from Riot and peers will help equity investors gauge whether miners remain geared macro trades or evolve into diversified compute utilities.VC FLOWS SHIFT TO INFRASTRUCTURE AS STS DIGITAL RAISES $30M FOR CRYPTO OPTIONS:Venture funding in crypto hit roughly $883M in February, but deal counts fell to a 5.5‑year low, with capital increasingly directed to stablecoin infrastructure, custody, and compliance rather than speculative token launches, and roughly 85% of 2025 token debuts now trading below issue levels, according toMEXC's recap of The Block data. STS Digital, a Bermuda-based trading and options venue, raised $30M from a roster of traditional and crypto-native investors to expand its institutional-grade spot and options platform, reinforcing the theme that market structure and derivatives rails, not consumer tokens, are where late-cycle VC dollars are concentrating, according toFinTech Futures.PREDICTION MARKETS FACE SCRUTINY AFTER $529M IN IRAN-RELATED POLYMARKET BETS:Prediction markets also drew scrutiny after Polymarket saw about $529M traded on Iran-related contracts, with a handful of newly created wallets generating an estimated $1.2M in profits and attracting attention from both blockchain analytics firms and U.S. lawmakers, according to.PRICE ACTION:As of time of writing, bitcoin was trading at$70,011.61, while ether was trading at$2,079.83,according to price data from TipRanks.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on JPM
About JPM
About the author
JPMorgan Passes Fed Stress Test, Announces Dividend Increase and Buyback
- Stress Test Success: JPMorgan Chase excelled in the Federal Reserve's stress test with a tier 1 capital ratio of 14.3%, significantly above the required 11.5%, indicating strong financial health and boosting investor confidence.
- Dividend and Buyback Announcement: The bank announced a 10% increase in dividends and a $50 billion share repurchase plan, which not only enhances shareholder returns but may also attract more investor interest, potentially driving the stock price higher.
- Strong Financial Performance: In Q1 2026, JPMorgan reported a 17% year-over-year increase in earnings per share and a 2 percentage point rise in return on tangible common equity, reflecting robust business growth and enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Valuation Concerns: Despite strong performance, JPMorgan's price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios are above their five-year averages, with the current P/E ratio around 15.5x, prompting investors to be cautious about buying at these elevated levels.
JPMorgan Chase Announces 10% Dividend Increase and $50 Billion Buyback Plan
- Dividend Increase: JPMorgan Chase has announced a 10% increase in its dividend, reflecting the company's strong financial performance and robust capital base, which enhances investor confidence and signals a commitment to shareholder returns.
- Buyback Program: The bank also unveiled a $50 billion stock buyback plan aimed at boosting earnings per share by reducing the number of shares outstanding, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's future growth prospects.
- Financial Strength: In the Federal Reserve's stress test, JPMorgan Chase reported a tier 1 capital ratio of 14.3%, significantly above the required 11.5%, showcasing its strong resilience in adverse economic conditions and solidifying its position as one of the largest financial institutions globally.
- Valuation Concerns: Despite robust performance, the stock is trading near all-time highs with price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios exceeding five-year averages, indicating that investors should carefully assess its value, especially in light of potential economic downturns.
JPMorgan Chase Passes Fed Stress Test, Announces Dividend Increase
- Financial Strength: JPMorgan Chase's Tier 1 capital ratio stands at 14.3%, significantly above the Fed's requirement of 11.5%, indicating robust preparedness for economic adversity and bolstering investor confidence.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: Following the stress test, JPMorgan announced a 10% dividend increase and a $50 billion share repurchase plan, aimed at enhancing shareholder value and attracting more investor interest.
- Significant Earnings Growth: In Q1 2026, JPMorgan reported a 17% year-over-year increase in earnings per share and a 2 percentage point rise in return on tangible common equity, demonstrating strong growth across all business segments and solidifying its market position.
- Valuation Concerns: Despite strong performance, the stock's P/E ratio of 15.5 and P/S ratio of 4.8 are above their five-year averages, suggesting that the current stock price may be overvalued, prompting investors to exercise caution.
JPMorgan Cuts Gold Price Forecast by 25%
- Short-Term Downgrade: JPMorgan has reduced its Q4 2026 gold price forecast by approximately 25%, from $6,000 to $4,500, reflecting weakened demand from key sectors, indicating a cautious sentiment in the short term.
- Price Volatility Expectation: The new forecast indicates an average gold price of $4,300 in Q3, with an anticipated rise to $4,500 in Q4, suggesting that prices will remain range-bound in the short term amid declining demand, prompting traders to prepare for sideways action.
- Long-Term Bullish Confidence: Despite the short-term downgrade, JPMorgan maintains a positive long-term outlook for gold, citing ongoing accumulation of gold reserves by central banks and continued allocation by institutional investors as key factors supporting prices and ensuring gold's role as a safe-haven asset.
- Impact on Crypto Markets: The competition between gold and Bitcoin as macro hedges may lead to some institutional capital shifting towards the crypto market due to gold's range-bound price, yet JPMorgan's long-term bullish stance ensures that gold will continue to serve as a store of value.
SK Hynix Considers Underwriting Fee for U.S. Listing
- Potential Fundraising Size: SK Hynix is preparing for a U.S. listing, potentially selling up to 2.5% of its outstanding shares, which could raise approximately $26.5 billion, reflecting the company's strong market position amid surging demand for AI infrastructure.
- Underwriting Fee Structure: The company is considering a fee of about 0.5% for underwriters, which, while below typical fees for large U.S. offerings, could still generate over $130 million for participating banks, highlighting the transaction's profitability potential.
- Market Leadership: As a leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory chips for NVIDIA AI processors, SK Hynix has greatly benefited from the AI investment boom, with its stock significantly rising over the past year, indicating strong investor optimism regarding long-term demand.
- Stock Volatility: Despite recent heightened volatility due to concerns over the sustainability of AI-related spending, SK Hynix's stock remains substantially higher than a year ago, demonstrating continued market confidence in its future growth prospects.
Multiple Firms Bullish on Innio N.V. Outlook
- Bullish Analyst Ratings: Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Innio N.V. with buy ratings, setting price targets ranging from $42 to $50, indicating potential upside of up to 35%, reflecting strong market confidence in its growth prospects.
- Surge in Data Center Demand: Innio's engines are favored by data centers for their modular design and quick power delivery, with data centers accounting for 21% of equipment revenue in the past year, now representing 61% of recent orders, highlighting robust market demand driven by AI.
- Revenue Growth Potential: Analysts project Innio's revenue in the data center segment to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 103.4%, indicating significant advantages in meeting rapidly changing large load demands, further solidifying its market position.
- Risks and Challenges: Despite the optimistic outlook, Goldman Sachs noted risks related to capacity expansion and supply chain issues, particularly with a $4.8 billion backlog that could pressure the company if demand slows, necessitating close monitoring of market dynamics to ensure sustained growth.
JPMorgan Passes Fed Stress Test, Announces Dividend Increase and Buyback
- Stress Test Success: JPMorgan Chase excelled in the Federal Reserve's stress test with a tier 1 capital ratio of 14.3%, significantly above the required 11.5%, indicating strong financial health and boosting investor confidence.
- Dividend and Buyback Announcement: The bank announced a 10% increase in dividends and a $50 billion share repurchase plan, which not only enhances shareholder returns but may also attract more investor interest, potentially driving the stock price higher.
- Strong Financial Performance: In Q1 2026, JPMorgan reported a 17% year-over-year increase in earnings per share and a 2 percentage point rise in return on tangible common equity, reflecting robust business growth and enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Valuation Concerns: Despite strong performance, JPMorgan's price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios are above their five-year averages, with the current P/E ratio around 15.5x, prompting investors to be cautious about buying at these elevated levels.
JPMorgan Chase Announces 10% Dividend Increase and $50 Billion Buyback Plan
- Dividend Increase: JPMorgan Chase has announced a 10% increase in its dividend, reflecting the company's strong financial performance and robust capital base, which enhances investor confidence and signals a commitment to shareholder returns.
- Buyback Program: The bank also unveiled a $50 billion stock buyback plan aimed at boosting earnings per share by reducing the number of shares outstanding, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's future growth prospects.
- Financial Strength: In the Federal Reserve's stress test, JPMorgan Chase reported a tier 1 capital ratio of 14.3%, significantly above the required 11.5%, showcasing its strong resilience in adverse economic conditions and solidifying its position as one of the largest financial institutions globally.
- Valuation Concerns: Despite robust performance, the stock is trading near all-time highs with price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios exceeding five-year averages, indicating that investors should carefully assess its value, especially in light of potential economic downturns.
JPMorgan Chase Passes Fed Stress Test, Announces Dividend Increase
- Financial Strength: JPMorgan Chase's Tier 1 capital ratio stands at 14.3%, significantly above the Fed's requirement of 11.5%, indicating robust preparedness for economic adversity and bolstering investor confidence.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: Following the stress test, JPMorgan announced a 10% dividend increase and a $50 billion share repurchase plan, aimed at enhancing shareholder value and attracting more investor interest.
- Significant Earnings Growth: In Q1 2026, JPMorgan reported a 17% year-over-year increase in earnings per share and a 2 percentage point rise in return on tangible common equity, demonstrating strong growth across all business segments and solidifying its market position.
- Valuation Concerns: Despite strong performance, the stock's P/E ratio of 15.5 and P/S ratio of 4.8 are above their five-year averages, suggesting that the current stock price may be overvalued, prompting investors to exercise caution.
JPMorgan Cuts Gold Price Forecast by 25%
- Short-Term Downgrade: JPMorgan has reduced its Q4 2026 gold price forecast by approximately 25%, from $6,000 to $4,500, reflecting weakened demand from key sectors, indicating a cautious sentiment in the short term.
- Price Volatility Expectation: The new forecast indicates an average gold price of $4,300 in Q3, with an anticipated rise to $4,500 in Q4, suggesting that prices will remain range-bound in the short term amid declining demand, prompting traders to prepare for sideways action.
- Long-Term Bullish Confidence: Despite the short-term downgrade, JPMorgan maintains a positive long-term outlook for gold, citing ongoing accumulation of gold reserves by central banks and continued allocation by institutional investors as key factors supporting prices and ensuring gold's role as a safe-haven asset.
- Impact on Crypto Markets: The competition between gold and Bitcoin as macro hedges may lead to some institutional capital shifting towards the crypto market due to gold's range-bound price, yet JPMorgan's long-term bullish stance ensures that gold will continue to serve as a store of value.
SK Hynix Considers Underwriting Fee for U.S. Listing
- Potential Fundraising Size: SK Hynix is preparing for a U.S. listing, potentially selling up to 2.5% of its outstanding shares, which could raise approximately $26.5 billion, reflecting the company's strong market position amid surging demand for AI infrastructure.
- Underwriting Fee Structure: The company is considering a fee of about 0.5% for underwriters, which, while below typical fees for large U.S. offerings, could still generate over $130 million for participating banks, highlighting the transaction's profitability potential.
- Market Leadership: As a leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory chips for NVIDIA AI processors, SK Hynix has greatly benefited from the AI investment boom, with its stock significantly rising over the past year, indicating strong investor optimism regarding long-term demand.
- Stock Volatility: Despite recent heightened volatility due to concerns over the sustainability of AI-related spending, SK Hynix's stock remains substantially higher than a year ago, demonstrating continued market confidence in its future growth prospects.
Multiple Firms Bullish on Innio N.V. Outlook
- Bullish Analyst Ratings: Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Innio N.V. with buy ratings, setting price targets ranging from $42 to $50, indicating potential upside of up to 35%, reflecting strong market confidence in its growth prospects.
- Surge in Data Center Demand: Innio's engines are favored by data centers for their modular design and quick power delivery, with data centers accounting for 21% of equipment revenue in the past year, now representing 61% of recent orders, highlighting robust market demand driven by AI.
- Revenue Growth Potential: Analysts project Innio's revenue in the data center segment to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 103.4%, indicating significant advantages in meeting rapidly changing large load demands, further solidifying its market position.
- Risks and Challenges: Despite the optimistic outlook, Goldman Sachs noted risks related to capacity expansion and supply chain issues, particularly with a $4.8 billion backlog that could pressure the company if demand slows, necessitating close monitoring of market dynamics to ensure sustained growth.
