Bitcoin and Ether ETFs Post $9.15B Outflows, JPMorgan Reaffirms $266K Target
Bitcoinand etherstart March stuck in a post-Iran shock range as corporate treasuries ramp up BTC and ETH accumulation into ETF outflows and macro risk, setting up a tug-of-war between listed "bitcoin standard" plays, tokenization pivots, and mining-to-AI transitions. Stay up on the crypto news that matters with "Crypto Currents," daily from The Fly. Join us at 2 PM ET for your essential briefing on the fast-moving world of cryptocurrency on FlyCast radio.BITCOIN, ETHER ETFS POST $9.15B IN OUTFLOWS AS FEBRUARY TURNS WORST IN A DECADE:U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have seen about $6.39B in net outflows over four straight months, while ether ETFs shed roughly $2.76B, the longest losing streak since launch and a clear sign of cooling institutional appetite for listed products, according toMEXCandChainCatcher. Bitcoin has nearly halved from its October high above $126,000 and ether is down more than 60% from August peaks above $4,950, capping a February where BTC fell about 15% and ETH nearly 20%, both among their weakest February returns in a decade, according toCoinglass data cited by Cointelegraph.JPMORGAN SEES CLARITY ACT AS 2H CATALYST, REAFFIRMS $266K BTC TARGET:JPMorgan'sresearch desk still leans structurally bullish, arguing the CLARITY Act, a comprehensive U.S. crypto market structure bill could be approved by mid-2026 and unlock bank and broker participation, and it reiterates a long-term bitcoin target of $266,000 on a volatility-adjusted gold framework.IRAN STRIKES SHOW BTC TRADING LIKE RISK ASSETS, GOLD OUTPERFORMS:The Iran strikes delivered a live-fire test of the "digital gold" story, and bitcoin failed to decouple from risk assets. BTC dropped 3–4% to around $63,250 immediately after U.S./Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iran, briefly rebounded above $67,000, and is now hovering back near pre-strike levels around the mid-$60Ks, having erased the initial shock move but not the broader February drawdown, according toThe Wall Street JournalandBarron's.Gold has outperformed sharply, climbing more than 5% over three days while bitcoin traded roughly flat, undercutting the hedge narrative and reinforcing BTC's role as a high-beta macro risk asset, according to. Nearly 46% of bitcoin supply, about 9.09M BTC, now sits at an on-chain loss, a profile historically associated with mid-to-late bear phases and heavier pressure on listed proxies like Coinbaseand bitcoin miners when geopolitical volatility spikes, according to.STRATEGY, PROCAP DOUBLE DOWN ON BTC WHILE BITMINE BUILDS $9.9B ETH TREASURY:Strategycontinued to lean into its bitcoin policy, disclosing purchases of 3,015 BTC for $204.1M between February 23 and March 1, funded by at-the-market equity issuance that raised roughly $237M across common and preferred, according to the company'sForm 8‑The company now holds 720,737 BTC at an average cost near $75,985 per coin, well above the current spot price, implying about $7B in unrealized losses, even as the board raised the STRC preferred dividend to 11.5%, its seventh consecutive hike since mid‑2025, according toYahoo Finance.Anthony Pompliano's ProCap Financialadded 450 BTC via structured put assignments with FalconX, taking its treasury to 5,457 BTC while simultaneously repurchasing more than 782K common shares at a discount to NAV and positioning itself as a mid-tier public BTC holder, according to a.On the Ethereum side, Bitmine Immersion Technologiesdisclosed a $9.9B balance sheet anchored by 4,473,587 ETH, about 3.7% of total ETH supply, including 3,040,483 ETH staked and generating an estimated $172M in annualized staking revenue, with chairman Tom Lee explicitly "buying the mini crypto winter" after acquiring roughly 50,928 ETH in the last week, according to.F2POOL FOUNDER BUILDS LARGE ETH POSITION; TETHER SHIFTS $151M IN TOKENIZED GOLD:Ethereum positioning is being reshaped by whales and corporates: Bitmine's on-chain footprint confirms its status as the largest ETH treasury among public companies, while Arkham Intelligence flags a wallet linked to F2Pool founder Chun Wang that withdrew about $67.5M of ETH from Binance over two weeks and now holds roughly $150M of ETH on Aaveafter routing about $240M in stablecoins through exchanges, according toU.Today. In tokenized commodities, Tether moved 28,723 XAUT, around $151M of tokenized gold, to Abraxas Capital, the largest such transfer in nearly three weeks and a data point that rhymes with Neptune Digital Assets' plan to add tokenized gold and silver to its treasury as a volatility buffer alongside BTC and staking assets, according toChainCatcher.ETF FLOWS STAY MIXED AS SOLANA ETP INFLOWS CONTRAST WITH BTC, ETH PROFIT-TAKING:ETF flow trackers show a mixed picture beneath the headline outflows: across 10 bitcoin ETFs and nine ether ETFs, March 2 saw modest single-day net outflows of (548) BTC and (12,307) ETH, but both assets still show sizable seven-day net inflows, suggesting short-term profit-taking rather than a wholesale institutional exit, according toKuCoin's flash note. SolanaETPs are a notable outlier, posting both positive daily and weekly inflows, highlighting residual risk appetite for higher-beta layer‑1 exposure even as large‑cap benchmarks struggle.COINCHECK CLOSES 3IQ DEAL AS BSTR BITCOIN SPAC REVIVES TREASURY LISTING PLAYBOOK:On the infrastructure side, Coincheck Groupclosed its acquisition of roughly 99.8% of Canadian manager 3iQ, adding a pioneer in bitcoin, ether staking, and solana staking ETPs to its franchise and deepening a strategy aimed at global institutional distribution beyond its Japan exchange roots, according to. Cantor Equity Partnersadvanced its BSTR bitcoin SPAC,that would list a dedicated treasury vehicle seeded with 30,021 BTC and around $1.4B in financing instruments under Blockstream CEO Adam Back, even as the broader bitcoin SPAC market has largely gone dormant.FORUM MARKETS DUMPS ETH TREASURY LABEL; JIUZI CHASES $300M CRYPTO-FUNDED PLACEMENT:Forum Markets, the former ETHZilla, began trading today under its new ticker and brand, formally abandoning an Ethereum treasury model that coincided with a roughly 96% share-price collapse and pivoting toward tokenized real‑world asset infrastructure, including fractionalized ownership of commercial jet engines, according to a. Jiuzi Holdingsmeanwhile expanded a crypto-funded private placement from $60M to a targeted $300M to build out on-chain custody and treasury infrastructure, underscoring that for some small caps, crypto remains a capital formation and balance sheet story rather than a pure trading proxy, according to.DIGI POWER X ARMS 200 GOES LIVE AS RIOT EARNINGS TEST MINING-TO-AI STORY:The mining-to-AI narrative continues to build as hashpower-exposed names seek higher-margin compute revenue streams. Digi Power X, a former bitcoin miner, has commissioned its first ARMS 200 modular data center at its Alabama facility and expects GPU-as-a-Service revenue to begin in April 2026, guiding to about $15M in annualized revenue per MW and laying out a roadmap to 10 MW in Alabama by Q3 and additional capacity in New York by Q2, according to apress release carried by the Detroit Free Press.Riot Platformsreports Q4 results after the close today, with the Street looking for low double‑digit revenue growth and a modest EPS loss as investors focus on how quickly its planned 1.7 GW power pipeline and AI/HPC pivot can offset softer bitcoin economics and rising geopolitical risk premia, according to the company'sIR site. With bitcoin having just logged its worst February since 2013 and nearly half of supply at a loss, earnings commentary from Riot and peers will help equity investors gauge whether miners remain geared macro trades or evolve into diversified compute utilities.VC FLOWS SHIFT TO INFRASTRUCTURE AS STS DIGITAL RAISES $30M FOR CRYPTO OPTIONS:Venture funding in crypto hit roughly $883M in February, but deal counts fell to a 5.5‑year low, with capital increasingly directed to stablecoin infrastructure, custody, and compliance rather than speculative token launches, and roughly 85% of 2025 token debuts now trading below issue levels, according toMEXC's recap of The Block data. STS Digital, a Bermuda-based trading and options venue, raised $30M from a roster of traditional and crypto-native investors to expand its institutional-grade spot and options platform, reinforcing the theme that market structure and derivatives rails, not consumer tokens, are where late-cycle VC dollars are concentrating, according toFinTech Futures.PREDICTION MARKETS FACE SCRUTINY AFTER $529M IN IRAN-RELATED POLYMARKET BETS:Prediction markets also drew scrutiny after Polymarket saw about $529M traded on Iran-related contracts, with a handful of newly created wallets generating an estimated $1.2M in profits and attracting attention from both blockchain analytics firms and U.S. lawmakers, according to.PRICE ACTION:As of time of writing, bitcoin was trading at$70,011.61, while ether was trading at$2,079.83,according to price data from TipRanks.
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JPMorgan Increases Mixed Shelf Offering Size to $125 Billion from $80 Billion
JPMorgan's Mixed Shelf Offering: JPMorgan has raised the size of its mixed shelf offering to up to $125 billion, significantly increasing from the previous limit of $80 billion.
Purpose of the Offering: The mixed shelf offering allows JPMorgan to issue various types of securities, providing flexibility in capital raising efforts.
Wall Street Lowers Market Expectations Amid Conflict
- Market Expectations Downgraded: Following the Iran conflict, firms like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo have cut their S&P 500 forecasts, with Wells Fargo reducing its target from 7,800 to 7,300, indicating a cautious outlook for the market.
- Significant Oil Price Impact: Elevated oil prices and record-low consumer confidence suggest that market performance may underperform expectations, raising concerns about potential economic recession risks.
- Poor Historical Forecast Accuracy: Over the past six years, Wall Street has significantly underestimated year-end market closes in five out of six years, particularly in 2022 when a bear market caught many off guard, highlighting the limitations of these predictions.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: While the 2026 market setup resembles that of April 2025, the potential long-term impact on oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz raises concerns about a global recession, necessitating cautious investor strategies.
Wall Street Cuts S&P 500 Targets Amid Iran War
- Wall Street Target Cuts: Major firms like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo have reduced their S&P 500 price targets in light of the Iran war, with Wells Fargo lowering its forecast from 7,800 to 7,300, indicating a cautious outlook on market performance.
- Historical Forecast Errors: Over the past six years, Wall Street has significantly underestimated market performance in five of those years, with discrepancies reaching as high as 28%, suggesting that investors should be wary of relying too heavily on Wall Street's predictions, especially in the current uncertain economic climate.
- Market Response and Risks: Although the market has rebounded recently, elevated oil prices and record-low consumer confidence may still lead to underperformance, and if tensions in Iran persist, the risk of a global recession could increase significantly.
- Long-Term Investment Strategy: Despite short-term risks, history shows that investors who remain committed typically see returns, thus when considering investments in the S&P 500, investors should focus on long-term gains rather than short-term fluctuations.
Understanding Investment Terms: Volume 8
- Retirement Smile: The retirement smile describes the spending pattern of retirees, which starts high, dips in the middle years, and rises again due to increased healthcare costs, significantly impacting financial planning strategies.
- Depreciation Concept: Depreciation is the accounting process of spreading the cost of long-lived assets over their useful life, affecting reported profitability, especially in capital-intensive industries like AI data centers.
- Dollar-Cost Averaging: Dollar-cost averaging involves regularly purchasing stocks or index funds at different price points, helping investors maintain a consistent investment rhythm amidst market volatility, making it suitable for long-term investing.
- Risk Tolerance: Risk tolerance refers to an investor's comfort with market volatility and potential losses, often revealed during market downturns, and requires self-reflection to fully understand.
Understanding Investment Terms: Volume 8
- Investment Terms Introduction: In Volume 8 of Rule Breaker Investing, David Gardner discusses six important investment terms with Motley Fool analysts, aiming to enhance investors' understanding of market dynamics and improve decision-making.
- Retirement Smile Curve: Amanda Kish introduces the retirement smile curve, emphasizing the U-shaped spending pattern in retirement, where initial spending is high, decreases in mid-retirement, and rises again due to healthcare costs, reminding investors to plan retirement funds wisely.
- Depreciation Concept: Nick Sciple explains the accounting treatment of depreciation and its impact on corporate profitability, stressing that investors should focus on cash flow rather than solely relying on the income statement for a more accurate assessment of a company's financial health.
- Risk Tolerance: Alicia Alfiere explores the complexity of risk tolerance, highlighting the need for investors to engage in self-reflection during market volatility to better understand their investment psychology and decision-making processes.
JPMorgan Downgrades Qualcomm Ahead of Earnings
- Earnings Risk Elevated: JPMorgan downgraded Qualcomm from Overweight to Neutral and cut its price target from $185 to $140, indicating rising pressures in its core handset business ahead of the earnings report, with QCT revenue expected to decline by 22% in 2026, significantly impacting profitability.
- Market Reaction Weak: Qualcomm's stock has fallen 22% year-to-date in 2026 and nearly 40% from its October peak, currently trading around $136, reflecting market concerns over its future earnings potential, particularly amid weakening smartphone demand.
- Core Business Challenges: Qualcomm's CDMA Technology unit remains its main profit driver, but risks from memory supply constraints and high customer concentration with Apple and Samsung threaten profitability, with QCT EBT margins expected to drop from 31% to 26%-28%.
- Limited Diversification Progress: Although Qualcomm has made strides in automotive and data center sectors, with automotive revenue growing 15% year-over-year to $1.1 billion in Q1 2026, these segments are still too small to offset declines in handset earnings, leaving investor confidence in future profitability fragile.
JPMorgan Increases Mixed Shelf Offering Size to $125 Billion from $80 Billion
JPMorgan's Mixed Shelf Offering: JPMorgan has raised the size of its mixed shelf offering to up to $125 billion, significantly increasing from the previous limit of $80 billion.
Purpose of the Offering: The mixed shelf offering allows JPMorgan to issue various types of securities, providing flexibility in capital raising efforts.
Wall Street Lowers Market Expectations Amid Conflict
- Market Expectations Downgraded: Following the Iran conflict, firms like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo have cut their S&P 500 forecasts, with Wells Fargo reducing its target from 7,800 to 7,300, indicating a cautious outlook for the market.
- Significant Oil Price Impact: Elevated oil prices and record-low consumer confidence suggest that market performance may underperform expectations, raising concerns about potential economic recession risks.
- Poor Historical Forecast Accuracy: Over the past six years, Wall Street has significantly underestimated year-end market closes in five out of six years, particularly in 2022 when a bear market caught many off guard, highlighting the limitations of these predictions.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: While the 2026 market setup resembles that of April 2025, the potential long-term impact on oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz raises concerns about a global recession, necessitating cautious investor strategies.
Wall Street Cuts S&P 500 Targets Amid Iran War
- Wall Street Target Cuts: Major firms like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo have reduced their S&P 500 price targets in light of the Iran war, with Wells Fargo lowering its forecast from 7,800 to 7,300, indicating a cautious outlook on market performance.
- Historical Forecast Errors: Over the past six years, Wall Street has significantly underestimated market performance in five of those years, with discrepancies reaching as high as 28%, suggesting that investors should be wary of relying too heavily on Wall Street's predictions, especially in the current uncertain economic climate.
- Market Response and Risks: Although the market has rebounded recently, elevated oil prices and record-low consumer confidence may still lead to underperformance, and if tensions in Iran persist, the risk of a global recession could increase significantly.
- Long-Term Investment Strategy: Despite short-term risks, history shows that investors who remain committed typically see returns, thus when considering investments in the S&P 500, investors should focus on long-term gains rather than short-term fluctuations.
Understanding Investment Terms: Volume 8
- Retirement Smile: The retirement smile describes the spending pattern of retirees, which starts high, dips in the middle years, and rises again due to increased healthcare costs, significantly impacting financial planning strategies.
- Depreciation Concept: Depreciation is the accounting process of spreading the cost of long-lived assets over their useful life, affecting reported profitability, especially in capital-intensive industries like AI data centers.
- Dollar-Cost Averaging: Dollar-cost averaging involves regularly purchasing stocks or index funds at different price points, helping investors maintain a consistent investment rhythm amidst market volatility, making it suitable for long-term investing.
- Risk Tolerance: Risk tolerance refers to an investor's comfort with market volatility and potential losses, often revealed during market downturns, and requires self-reflection to fully understand.
Understanding Investment Terms: Volume 8
- Investment Terms Introduction: In Volume 8 of Rule Breaker Investing, David Gardner discusses six important investment terms with Motley Fool analysts, aiming to enhance investors' understanding of market dynamics and improve decision-making.
- Retirement Smile Curve: Amanda Kish introduces the retirement smile curve, emphasizing the U-shaped spending pattern in retirement, where initial spending is high, decreases in mid-retirement, and rises again due to healthcare costs, reminding investors to plan retirement funds wisely.
- Depreciation Concept: Nick Sciple explains the accounting treatment of depreciation and its impact on corporate profitability, stressing that investors should focus on cash flow rather than solely relying on the income statement for a more accurate assessment of a company's financial health.
- Risk Tolerance: Alicia Alfiere explores the complexity of risk tolerance, highlighting the need for investors to engage in self-reflection during market volatility to better understand their investment psychology and decision-making processes.
JPMorgan Downgrades Qualcomm Ahead of Earnings
- Earnings Risk Elevated: JPMorgan downgraded Qualcomm from Overweight to Neutral and cut its price target from $185 to $140, indicating rising pressures in its core handset business ahead of the earnings report, with QCT revenue expected to decline by 22% in 2026, significantly impacting profitability.
- Market Reaction Weak: Qualcomm's stock has fallen 22% year-to-date in 2026 and nearly 40% from its October peak, currently trading around $136, reflecting market concerns over its future earnings potential, particularly amid weakening smartphone demand.
- Core Business Challenges: Qualcomm's CDMA Technology unit remains its main profit driver, but risks from memory supply constraints and high customer concentration with Apple and Samsung threaten profitability, with QCT EBT margins expected to drop from 31% to 26%-28%.
- Limited Diversification Progress: Although Qualcomm has made strides in automotive and data center sectors, with automotive revenue growing 15% year-over-year to $1.1 billion in Q1 2026, these segments are still too small to offset declines in handset earnings, leaving investor confidence in future profitability fragile.
