Asana Short Interest Soars to 33%
Welcome to this week's installment of "The Short Interest Report" - The Fly's weekly recap of short interest trends among some of the most widely followed high-short-float stocks. Using the data from our partner, which utilizes the latest information from stock lenders to estimate short interest changes for thousands of publicly traded companies, this report will screen for some of biggest changes in short interest as a percentage of free float and days-to-cover ratios while also considering the short interest data on some of the more volatile and heavier-traded names of the week. Based on the availability of data from Ortex, the report tracks the trading period that covers prior Friday through Thursday of this week, excluding holidays. As a basis of comparison for stocks discussed below, the S&P 500 index was up 3.2%, the Nasdaq Composite was up 5.6%, the Russell 2000 index was up 3.2%, the Russell 2000 Growth ETFwas up 4.8% and the Russell 2000 Value ETFwas up 1.3% in the five-day trading session range through April 16.SHORT INTEREST GAINERSOrtex-reported short interest on Asanahas spiked to fresh record highs as the workflow management company continues to find itself at the epicenter of "SaaS-pocalypse" with little interest from investors in buying this year's near-60% dip in spite of the rebound among some of the more established Software Application names in recent days. Shorts as a percentage of free float on Asana briefly topped 30% in early March, retreated to 27% by the first week of April, but this week, bears pushed that expression higher again to reach 33%. The stock was up 2% in the five-day period covered, but year-to-date, Asana is still down 57%.Ortex-reported short interest in Establishment Labshad troughed at 22% around mid-February - just days ahead of the company's better than expected results – and a subsequent four-year-high in the stock helped keep the bears at bay. Bearish expression hardly budged despite the 35% swoon in the stock price since the broader market downturn in March, though with broader sentiment recovering and the stock bouncing nearly 30% off its lows, sellers are stepping in with bets on renewed downside. This week, shorts as a percentage of free float on Establishment Labs spiked to a three-month high of 27% and days-to-cover on the name rose from 8.6 to 10.6, reflecting seasonally low trading volume thus far in April. The stock was up 4% in the five-day-period through Thursday, though year-to-date, the medical device company is still down over 9%.Ortex-reported short interest in Kohl'slast peaked around 26% in mid-March as the stock price collapsed about 40% over a span of a month on broader market selloff before the bears booked profits on their positions through the second half of last month and into April. With shares nudging higher over the past few days however, bears are refreshing their exposure at higher price levels. This week, shorts interest as a percentage of free float on Kohl's Rose from 23% to exceed 27% - the highest level since December – while days-to-cover bounced from 5.8 to 6.9. Shares of the retail chain were up about 5% in a five-day period covered through Thursday. Year-to-date, Kohls is still down nearly 30% - a worse performance relative to its department store peers like Macy'sand Dillard's, which are down by significantly smaller margins.SHORT INTEREST DECLINERSOrtex-reported short interest on Nano Nuclearhas been in retreat since the first week of February when it peaked around 37%, though unlike the downward sloping price action of the initial two months, this week's pullback is sharper and correlates with the bears exiting amid a bounce in the stock price. In the five-day period covered, shorts as a percentage of free float on Nano Nuclear fell from 27% all the way below 20% before settle Thursday at 21.4%. Days-to- cover on the name were also down – from 6.0 to 4.7 – helped relatively higher trading volume observed in April. Meanwhile, shares were up 16% in the five days through Thursday and another 6% on Friday, helping the stock recover losses of as much as 21% year-to-date registered just over two weeks ago.
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- Market Panic Intensifies: SaaS companies are experiencing severe market panic, as evidenced by the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) dropping over 30% in the past six months, compared to a mere 9% decline in the NASDAQ, indicating a significant loss of investor confidence in SaaS stocks.
- Chegg's Collapse: The online homework help platform Chegg has seen its stock plummet over 99% since its peak in 2021, as its core product has been replaced by free AI tools like ChatGPT, leading to a 40% year-over-year revenue decline, highlighting the tangible threat AI poses to certain SaaS companies.
- HubSpot and Constellation's Dilemma: Despite HubSpot and Constellation Software achieving all-time highs in revenue and free cash flow, their valuations have plummeted, with HubSpot trading at a mere 4 times sales and Constellation at 3 times, reflecting a pessimistic outlook from the market regarding their futures.
- AI as a Double-Edged Sword: While AI poses a threat to SaaS companies, some experts believe it could also serve as an advantage, particularly for firms like ServiceNow and Cadence, which may leverage AI effectively to gain a competitive edge in the evolving market landscape.
- SAP Downgrade: Piper Sandler downgraded SAP from Overweight to Neutral, cutting the price target from €220 to €170, citing analysts' concerns over slower-than-expected cloud conversions and SAP's significant exposure to a weakening European economy, which may impact execution risk.
- Cloud Transition Challenges: Analysts noted that customer prioritization of general AI adoption over ERP migrations ahead of the 2027 deadline has led to slower cloud conversion rates, diminishing confidence in SAP's ability to meet its initial FY26 guidance, particularly as lower-hanging fruit migrations are lagging.
- Asana and monday.com Ratings Adjusted: Piper Sandler also downgraded Asana and monday.com from Overweight to Neutral, with price targets reduced to $7 and $85 respectively, as the collaboration software sector faces increased scrutiny and concerns over slowing growth rates.
- Market Environment Impact: Asana's heightened exposure to the tech vertical may lead to faster efficiency-driven constraints, while monday.com, despite guiding for 18.3% growth in fiscal 2026, is experiencing margin compression, indicating that increased scrutiny from investors could temper near-term multiple expansion.
- Analyst Rating Change: RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria upgraded Asana, Inc. (NYSE:ASAN) to Sector Perform with an unchanged $7 price target, reflecting optimism following management meetings.
- AI Product Performance: Asana's AI Studio has reached $6 million in annual recurring revenue with eight customers spending over $100,000, indicating increasing market acceptance of the company's AI offerings.
- Positive Customer Feedback: Rishi Jaluria noted that the AI Teammates beta has attracted 200 customers, with strong feedback suggesting broader market adoption, and expects AI to contribute 15% of new annual recurring revenue this year.
- Competitor Dynamics: Despite KeyBanc and BofA lowering their price targets to $15 and $14 respectively, both maintained buy ratings, indicating market recognition of Asana's potential value and growth opportunities.
- Market Volatility Intensifies: Reports of a ceasefire breach in the Middle East have heightened market fears, leading to significant declines in stocks like HubSpot and Asana, which fell 7% and 6.9% respectively, indicating investor sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- AI Disrupting Traditional Models: The launch of Anthropic's Managed Agents, autonomous AI systems, has raised concerns about the traditional SaaS model, as traders worry that these efficient AI tools could replace human-operated solutions, impacting the market positions of established companies.
- Impact of Short Sellers: Notable short seller Michael Burry's claim that Anthropic is
- Rating Upgrade: RBC Capital Markets upgraded Asana from Underperform to Sector Perform, primarily due to its transition from a seat-based to a consumption-based model, which presents a more compelling valuation and is expected to enhance financial performance.
- Limited AI Impact: Management noted that Asana has not experienced significant disruption from large language models, with no notable changes in customer perception regarding existential risks or competitive threats from AI, thereby supporting its market positioning.
- AI Product Growth: Asana's AI Studio has reached $6 million in annual recurring revenue, with eight customers spending over $100,000, and the company expects these AI offerings to contribute 15% of net new annual recurring revenue this year, indicating strong potential in the AI space.
- Transformation Challenges: While Asana's transition may impact near-term margins, management believes that AI products can alleviate downgrade pressures by making customers seat-agnostic, effectively converting downgrades into more complex, higher-value deployments with improved unit economics.
- AI Paradox Unveiled: Jackson's analysis of 716 SaaS earnings calls over two decades reveals that companies in the top quintile of AI language density underperformed the bottom quintile by 5.4 percentage points over the following 90 days, indicating an overreaction to AI hype in the market.
- Shifting Market Sentiment: He argues that many SaaS firms are overvalued due to growth narratives driven by AI, facing risks of slowing organic growth, rising customer acquisition costs, and deteriorating pricing power, particularly as enterprise spending tightens.
- Short Position Strategy: Jackson has established short positions in Salesforce, Asana, DocuSign, and Atlassian, all of which are trading at multi-year lows, with Asana hitting an all-time low, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on their future performance.
- Comparative Industry Analysis: While companies like CrowdStrike and Zscaler benefit from AI advancements, Jackson believes the market is punishing all related firms too harshly, leading to misjudgments in investment choices among investors.











