American Express Stock Drops Amid AI Disruption Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 06 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AXP?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Stock Price Decline: American Express shares fell 12.3% in February primarily due to a viral article raising concerns about AI potentially disrupting traditional financial services, despite the company providing strong earnings guidance for 2026 and raising its dividend.
- Strong Financial Performance: Facing AI threats, American Express reported a 16% growth in earnings per share for Q4 2025 and is guiding for a 10% revenue increase in 2026, with EPS expected to reach $17.90 or more, indicating robust fundamentals.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Although the stock is down 20% from its highs, American Express's price-to-earnings ratio has fallen below 20, making it not overly cheap but potentially a good buying opportunity for long-term investors at current levels.
- Changing Competitive Landscape: With the rise of stablecoins and other new payment methods, traditional credit card networks face challenges; however, American Express maintains its market competitiveness through diverse services and perks offered via merchant partnerships, which AI agents cannot easily replicate.
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Analyst Views on AXP
Wall Street analysts forecast AXP stock price to rise
21 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
12 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 329.790
Low
280.00
Averages
379.06
High
425.00
Current: 329.790
Low
280.00
Averages
379.06
High
425.00
About AXP
American Express Company is a global payments and premium lifestyle brand powered by technology. Its card-issuing, merchant-acquiring and card network businesses offer products and services to a broad range of customers, including consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies and large corporations around the world. Its range of products and services includes credit and charge cards and complementary products and services, including travel, dining, lifestyle and expense management products and services; banking and other payment and financing products and services, including deposits and non-card lending; merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, fraud prevention, and point-of-sale marketing and information products and services, and network services. These products and services are offered through various channels, including mobile and online applications, affiliate marketing, customer referral programs, third-party service providers, and business partners.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Revenue Growth Expectations: American Express is expected to see a 17.6% year-on-year revenue growth this quarter, a significant improvement from the 8.8% increase recorded in the same quarter last year, reflecting optimistic market sentiment that could positively impact its stock price.
- Analyst Optimism: Over the past 30 days, analysts covering American Express have made the majority of upward revisions to revenue estimates, indicating increased confidence in the company's future performance, which may attract more investor interest.
- Peer Performance: In the consumer finance sector, competitors Synchrony Financial and Capital One reported mixed results, with Synchrony posting flat revenue while Capital One saw a 52.3% increase, providing important market context that could influence investor confidence in American Express.
- Stock Price Movement: American Express shares have risen 9.7% over the past month, while the overall consumer finance sector has increased by 11.8%, suggesting a positive market attitude towards the upcoming earnings report, with analysts setting a price target of $356.15, indicating significant upside potential from the current price of $331.14.
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- Long-Term Growth Guidance: CEO Stephen Squeri provided 2026 guidance during the Q4 earnings call, forecasting 9% to 10% revenue growth and EPS between $17.30 and $17.90, indicating strong confidence in future growth prospects.
- Stock Performance: Despite Wall Street analysts rating the stock as a Buy, AXP has declined over 10% this year, underperforming the S&P 500's 3.2% gain, reflecting market concerns about near-term risks.
- Robust Capital Allocation: American Express maintains a 34% return on equity and strong buyback programs, alongside a 16% dividend increase, showcasing its capacity for long-term compounding growth despite facing near-term spending pressures.
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- Revenue Growth Expectations: American Express is expected to see a 17.6% year-on-year revenue growth this quarter, a significant improvement from the 8.8% increase recorded in the same quarter last year, reflecting optimistic market sentiment that could positively impact its stock price.
- Analyst Optimism: Over the past 30 days, analysts covering American Express have made the majority of upward revisions to revenue estimates, indicating increased confidence in the company's future performance, which may attract more investor interest.
- Peer Performance: In the consumer finance sector, competitors Synchrony Financial and Capital One reported mixed results, with Synchrony posting flat revenue while Capital One saw a 52.3% increase, providing important market context that could influence investor confidence in American Express.
- Stock Price Movement: American Express shares have risen 9.7% over the past month, while the overall consumer finance sector has increased by 11.8%, suggesting a positive market attitude towards the upcoming earnings report, with analysts setting a price target of $356.15, indicating significant upside potential from the current price of $331.14.
See More
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- Earnings Expectations: American Express is projected to report Q1 EPS of $3.99 with a 9.7% year-over-year revenue increase to $18.61 billion, demonstrating resilience amid a challenging consumer spending environment.
- Long-Term Growth Guidance: CEO Stephen Squeri provided 2026 guidance during the Q4 earnings call, forecasting 9% to 10% revenue growth and EPS between $17.30 and $17.90, indicating strong confidence in future growth prospects.
- Stock Performance: Despite Wall Street analysts rating the stock as a Buy, AXP has declined over 10% this year, underperforming the S&P 500's 3.2% gain, reflecting market concerns about near-term risks.
- Robust Capital Allocation: American Express maintains a 34% return on equity and strong buyback programs, alongside a 16% dividend increase, showcasing its capacity for long-term compounding growth despite facing near-term spending pressures.
See More
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- Performance Analysis: Giverny Capital Asset Management's portfolio returned 6.9% in Q1 2026, underperforming against the S&P 500 Index, which declined by 4.3%, indicating relative weakness that may affect investor confidence in the fund's management.
- New Investment Position: In Q1 2026, Giverny Capital initiated a new position in American Express (NYSE:AXP), reflecting optimism about the company's growth potential, particularly following its acquisition of Hypercard, which enhances its expertise in AI and expense management.
- Holding Adjustments: During the same period, Giverny Capital fully exited its position in Ametek (NYSE:AME), suggesting a cautious outlook on the company's prospects or a strategic reallocation of funds to pursue higher returns.
- Market Dynamics: Key deals this week include American Express, Otis, Vertiv, and Wipro, highlighting market interest in these companies, which may influence investor decisions and overall market sentiment.
See More
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- Market Valuation Appeal: The S&P 500's current P/E ratio of 20.8 is near its lowest in a year, indicating that U.S. stocks are more attractive compared to the 22 times earnings at the start of 2026, drawing investors seeking opportunities amid uncertainty.
- Rising Energy Price Concerns: Approximately two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have expressed concerns about energy prices in their earnings calls since April, a significant increase from 17% in the January-March period, highlighting the potential economic impact of high oil prices.
- Cautious Corporate Outlook: GE Aerospace's CEO indicated that the company could have raised its forecast if not for current uncertainties, reflecting concerns in the airline industry about maintenance and spending cuts, which led to a 6% drop in GE's stock price.
- AI Expectations Driving Market: Despite risks from high energy prices, analysts have raised their earnings growth expectations for 2026 from 16% in January to nearly 20%, primarily driven by technology companies, showcasing optimism surrounding artificial intelligence.
See More
Three Stocks Warren Buffett Will Hold Forever
- Coca-Cola's Lasting Value: Coca-Cola is the longest-held stock in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, purchased in 1988, currently representing 9.4% of the total portfolio, and is expected to generate $848 million in dividends this year, showcasing its stable cash flow and long-term investment value.
- American Express's Unique Advantage: American Express accounts for 15.6% of Berkshire's portfolio, with its unique business model attracting high-spending customers through annual fees and premium rewards programs, which are expected to drive profitability and market share growth.
- Apple's Ecosystem: Although Berkshire has reduced its stake, Apple remains its largest holding at 19.2%, with a 23% year-over-year increase in iPhone sales indicating its competitive strength and long-term growth potential in the market.
- AI Investment Outlook: Apple's $1 billion annual partnership with Alphabet's Gemini for AI development will enhance its capabilities and reduce costs, further solidifying its market position in AI and demonstrating strategic foresight in technological innovation.
See More
Capital One Reports Noisy Q1 Earnings Miss
- Weak Revenue Growth: Capital One's Q1 revenue increased 52% year-over-year to $15.23 billion, missing the $15.36 billion analyst consensus, indicating challenges in revenue growth that could impact future investor confidence.
- Adjusted EPS Decline: Adjusted earnings per share rose 15% year-over-year to $4.42, falling short of the $4.55 estimate, marking the second consecutive quarter of earnings misses and reflecting pressure on the company's profitability.
- Expense Management Issues: Non-interest expenses totaled $8.46 billion, exceeding the $8.3 billion analyst expectation, including approximately $893 million in one-time acquisition-related costs, although adjusted expenses were $7.58 billion, highlighting cost challenges during the integration process.
- Increased Credit Loss Reserves: Provisions for credit losses amounted to about $4.1 billion, slightly above expectations, primarily driven by the auto lending business, although management noted that consumer credit quality remains strong, with potential future impacts from rising energy prices.
See More
