American Express 2026 Revenue Guidance Underwhelms
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 02 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AXP?
Source: Benzinga
- Weak Revenue Guidance: American Express's 2026 revenue guidance indicates a growth rate of only 5%-8%, reflecting slowing card fee growth and declines in new card acquisitions both year-over-year and sequentially, signaling weakening underlying business trends.
- Analyst Rating Maintained: BTIG analyst Vincent Caintic maintains a Sell rating on American Express with a price target of $328, asserting that despite the refresh of the Platinum Card, the company has not significantly improved market share or performance.
- Limited Impact of Product Refresh: While the Platinum Card refresh provides a temporary boost, the analyst notes that it serves as a one-time lever and cannot alter the long-term growth expectation of 8-10%, highlighting the company's vulnerability in a competitive landscape.
- Muted Stock Reaction: Following the announcement, American Express shares fell only 0.10% to $351.81, indicating that market concerns about the company's future prospects did not trigger a significant reaction.
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Analyst Views on AXP
Wall Street analysts forecast AXP stock price to rise
21 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
12 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 301.450
Low
280.00
Averages
379.06
High
425.00
Current: 301.450
Low
280.00
Averages
379.06
High
425.00
About AXP
American Express Company is a global payments and premium lifestyle brand powered by technology. Its card-issuing, merchant-acquiring and card network businesses offer products and services to a broad range of customers, including consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies and large corporations around the world. Its range of products and services includes credit and charge cards and complementary products and services, including travel, dining, lifestyle and expense management products and services; banking and other payment and financing products and services, including deposits and non-card lending; merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, fraud prevention, and point-of-sale marketing and information products and services, and network services. These products and services are offered through various channels, including mobile and online applications, affiliate marketing, customer referral programs, third-party service providers, and business partners.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Uncertain Donation Commitment: Buffett mentioned he will “wait and see what unfolds” regarding his donations, leaving the foundation's financial future uncertain and potentially jeopardizing its charitable initiatives.
- Concerns for the Future: Buffett expressed worries about the Gates Foundation's future, emphasizing the need for clarity on the situation, which may lead to increased scrutiny and regulation of charitable organizations.
See More
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- American Express Resilience: Berkshire built its 22% stake in American Express between 1991 and 1995, and despite economic challenges, the company maintains strong customer loyalty and consistent profit growth, expected to continue outperforming the S&P 500.
- Coca-Cola's Dividend King Status: Berkshire holds a 9.3% stake in Coca-Cola, and since investing in 1988, the stock has delivered a total return of 3,580%, which, while below the S&P 500, is supported by consistent dividend growth, making it a cornerstone for long-term investment.
- Strategic Significance of Portfolio: Buffett's investment philosophy emphasizes acquiring high-quality companies, and although he has retired, new CEO Abel indicates no major changes to core investments, suggesting Berkshire will continue to focus on long-term value investing.
See More
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- Strong Earnings Performance: In 2025, the company reported a 10% revenue increase to $72.2 billion, with earnings per share reaching $15.38, a 15% year-over-year growth, demonstrating robust profitability amid resilient consumer spending.
- Share Buyback Program: In 2025, American Express returned $7.6 billion to shareholders, with approximately $5.3 billion allocated for share repurchases, reducing the share count by about 2%, which directly boosts earnings per share and enhances shareholder returns.
- Market Appeal: Despite a 20% decline in share price since the start of 2026, trading around $300 with a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 17, the stock presents an attractive valuation for long-term investors in a high-quality lending institution.
See More
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- Strong Earnings Performance: American Express reported a 10% revenue increase for 2025, reaching $72.2 billion, with adjusted earnings per share at $15.38, a 15% year-over-year growth, demonstrating resilience amid economic uncertainties and boosting investor confidence.
- Dividend Growth and Buybacks: The board approved a 16% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.95 per share, with an annualized payout of $3.80 reflecting a low payout ratio under 25%, indicating room for future increases, while $5.3 billion was spent on share repurchases in 2025, reducing the share count by 2% and enhancing per-share earnings.
- Enhanced Pricing Power: By raising the annual fee of its flagship Platinum Card by nearly 30% to $895 and adding various lifestyle perks, American Express successfully attracted younger consumers, particularly Millennials and Gen Z, thereby strengthening customer loyalty and laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Attractive Valuation: With shares trading around $300, the stock is valued at approximately 17 times the midpoint of management's 2026 earnings guidance, presenting an appealing price-to-earnings ratio for a high-quality lender, offering investors a solid entry point despite potential economic downturn risks.
See More
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- Increased Shareholder Returns: The board approved a 16% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.95 per share in March, resulting in a 1.3% dividend yield, indicating strong cash flow that supports future dividend growth.
- Aggressive Buyback Program: In 2025, American Express returned $7.6 billion to shareholders, with approximately $5.3 billion allocated for share repurchases, reducing the share count by about 2%, which directly boosts per-share earnings.
- Strong Pricing Power: By raising the annual fee of its flagship Platinum Card by nearly 30% and enhancing lifestyle benefits, the company successfully attracts younger consumers, demonstrating its pricing power and potential for future growth.
See More
