Amazon Stock Underperforms, Future Investment Outlook Uncertain
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 24 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AMZN?
Source: Fool
- Stock Underperformance: Amazon's stock has only risen 34% over the past five years, significantly lagging behind the S&P 500's 78% return, indicating market skepticism about its future growth and potentially undermining long-term investor confidence.
- Surge in AWS Demand: Despite Amazon Web Services (AWS) generating $129 billion in sales last year with a 24% year-over-year growth rate, the company is expected to invest $600 billion over the next decade to meet AI demand, which may lead to negative cash flow in the short term.
- Debt Risk: To fund its AI infrastructure, Amazon raised approximately $69 billion in debt in late 2025 and early 2026, raising concerns among investors about the implications of increasing debt in an uncertain AI sector, which could adversely affect profitability.
- Long-Term Investment Potential: Despite short-term uncertainties, Amazon's e-commerce and retail operations achieved record profit margins in 2025, and if AWS grows as expected, the company could surpass $1.5 trillion in sales over the next decade, making it an attractive option for long-term investors.
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Analyst Views on AMZN
Wall Street analysts forecast AMZN stock price to rise
44 Analyst Rating
41 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 210.570
Low
175.00
Averages
280.01
High
325.00
Current: 210.570
Low
175.00
Averages
280.01
High
325.00
About AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc. provides a range of products and services to customers. The products offered through its stores include merchandise and content it has purchased for resale and products offered by third-party sellers. The Company’s segments include North America, International and Amazon Web Services (AWS). It serves consumers through its online and physical stores and focuses on selection, price, and convenience. Customers access its offerings through its websites, mobile apps, Alexa, devices, streaming, and physically visiting its stores. It also manufactures and sells electronic devices, including Kindle, Fire tablet, Fire TV, Echo, Ring, Blink, and eero, and develops and produces media content. It serves developers and enterprises of all sizes, including start-ups, government agencies, and academic institutions, through AWS, which offers a set of on-demand technology services, including compute, storage, database, analytics, and machine learning, and other services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Substantial Capital Expenditure Increase: Management expects capital expenditures to reach $200 billion in 2026, sharply up from $131 billion in 2025, reflecting Amazon's ambitious goals in AI and a significant financial commitment to infrastructure development.
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See More
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See More
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- Optimistic Guidance: Management anticipates a 9% sequential revenue increase in the first quarter, projecting adjusted EPS of $0.79, indicating sustained growth potential in AI infrastructure, particularly within the data center segment.
- Collaboration with Nvidia: Nvidia's announcement of a $2 billion investment in Marvell, coupled with a product partnership, is expected to enhance Marvell's market position in AI infrastructure, particularly in the application of photonic networking technologies.
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See More
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- Amazon's Acquisition Moves: Amazon recently acquired Fauna Robotics, focusing on developing friendly humanoid robots for home and business use; although it lags behind Tesla in the robotics sector, its substantial cash reserves and innovation focus could enable it to catch up quickly.
- Warehouse Optimization Progress: Over the past year, Amazon has launched over a million AI-powered robots to optimize warehouse operations, and while the short-term financial impact may be limited, significant revenue could be realized if the market grows as projected.
See More
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- Optimistic Outlook: Management anticipates a 9% sequential revenue growth in Q1, guiding for adjusted EPS of $0.79, reflecting confidence in its data center business, particularly with a projected 40% growth in data center revenue for fiscal 2027.
- Strategic Investment: Nvidia's announcement of a $2 billion investment in Marvell, coupled with a product partnership, aims to integrate their technologies to advance the development of next-generation optical networking products for AI data centers, reinforcing Marvell's leadership in networking technology.
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See More
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- Valuation Timing: Ackman entered these three companies at P/E ratios of 16, 25, and 20 during periods of weak market sentiment, indicating a strategy focused on finding value amidst uncertainty, potentially laying the groundwork for future earnings growth.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: In 2026, Alphabet plans to invest $175 billion to $185 billion, while Amazon and Meta are set to spend $200 billion and $115 billion to $135 billion on AI-related investments, demonstrating their commitment to technological innovation.
- Cash Reserve Advantage: As of December 31, 2025, these three companies collectively held $331 billion in cash and cash equivalents, significantly exceeding their long-term debt, indicating strong financial capacity for future investments and market volatility management.
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