Aluminum Stocks Surge Amid Middle East Conflict
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 17 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AA?
Source: stocktwits
- Aluminum Price Surge: Amid U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran, aluminum prices have surged past $3,600 per tonne, with analysts warning they could reach $4,000 if regional production losses persist, significantly impacting the global aluminum market and enhancing U.S. producers' profitability.
- Strong Company Performance: Since the onset of the conflict, Alcoa (AA) and Century Aluminum (CENX) have seen their stock prices rise by 20% and 28%, respectively, reflecting market optimism about the aluminum sector, particularly in light of Trump's increased tariffs on aluminum imports.
- Earnings Report Analysis: Although Alcoa reported a 5.2% decline in Q1 revenue, falling short of Wall Street estimates, its earnings per share of $1.4 met expectations, indicating the company's resilience in a high aluminum price environment, with production projected to remain between 2.4 to 2.6 million metric tons in 2026.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Morgan Stanley upgraded Alcoa to 'Overweight' with a price target raised to $80, reflecting analysts' confidence in rising aluminum prices and Alcoa's high operating leverage, with expectations that future aluminum supply shortages will further drive stock prices upward.
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Analyst Views on AA
Wall Street analysts forecast AA stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 62.530
Low
38.00
Averages
57.63
High
78.00
Current: 62.530
Low
38.00
Averages
57.63
High
78.00
About AA
Alcoa Corporation is a vertically integrated aluminum company comprised of bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production (smelting and casting), and energy generation. The Company's operations are comprised of two business segments: Alumina and Aluminum. The Alumina segment primarily consists of its bauxite mines and alumina refineries, and its operations include the mining of bauxite and other aluminous ores, as well as the refining, production, and sale of smelter grade and non-metallurgical alumina. The alumina produced by this segment is sold primarily to internal and external aluminum smelter customers; a portion of the alumina is sold to external customers who process it into industrial chemical products. The Aluminum segment consists of the Company's aluminum smelting and casting operations along with the Company's energy production assets in Brazil, Canada, and the United States. It has direct and indirect ownership of over 25 operating locations across eight countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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