2026 Revenue Consensus at $7.2B, EBITDA Outlook Raised to $2.23B
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 29 2026
0mins
Should l Buy GFL?
2026 revenue consensus $7.2B. Raises 2026 adjusted EBITDA view to $2.23B, up from original guidance by approximately $90M. Sees 2026 CapEx $825M.
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Analyst Views on GFL
Wall Street analysts forecast GFL stock price to rise
15 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 37.190
Low
34.03
Averages
55.30
High
64.06
Current: 37.190
Low
34.03
Averages
55.30
High
64.06
About GFL
GFL Environmental Inc. is a Canada-based diversified environmental services company. The Company is engaged in offering solid waste management, liquid waste management, and soil remediation services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling and disposal services. Its facilities type consists of convenience sites, landfills, material recovery facilities, organic processing, soil remediation sites and transfer stations. It has operations across Canada and the United States. The Company offers its services to municipal, residential, and commercial and industrial customers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
GFL Environmental Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations with Revenue Growth
- Revenue Growth: GFL Environmental reported Q1 revenue of $1.64 billion, reflecting a 5.1% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations by $450 million, indicating strong market performance and sustained customer demand.
- Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Increase: The company raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to approximately $2.23 billion, an increase of $90 million from previous estimates, reflecting synergies from acquisitions and improved operational efficiencies.
- Free Cash Flow Guidance Upward Revision: Adjusted free cash flow for 2026 is now estimated at approximately $850 million, up $15 million from earlier guidance, demonstrating improvements in capital management and cash generation capabilities.
- Capital Expenditure and Leverage: Full-year net capital expenditures are expected to be around $825 million, with cash interest expenses projected at approximately $445 million, while net leverage is anticipated to remain in the mid-3s by the end of 2026, indicating financial stability.
See More
GFL Environmental Set to Announce Q1 Earnings
- Earnings Announcement Date: GFL Environmental is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings on April 29th after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.09, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 115.5%, indicating strong profitability potential.
- Revenue Expectations Decline: Despite the optimistic EPS outlook, the revenue estimate stands at $1.19 billion, representing a 23.7% year-over-year decline, which highlights challenges the company faces in the current market environment and may impact investor confidence.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, GFL has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and has surpassed revenue estimates 100% of the time, demonstrating stability and reliability in its financial performance.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen five upward revisions and six downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced no upward revisions and ten downward revisions, indicating market caution and divergence regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Trump Threatens 50% Tariff on China Amid Trade Tensions
- Tariff Threat Escalation: President Trump threatened a staggering 50% tariff on China during a Fox News interview, which could significantly impact multinational companies like Apple that rely heavily on Chinese supply chains, further escalating trade tensions.
- Increased Economic Risks: This tariff threat not only poses operational challenges for global retail giants like Nike but also raises investor concerns about the economic repercussions of the ongoing Middle East conflict, adding layers of uncertainty to the market.
- Market Reaction: Although Trump labeled the underlying reports as potentially 'fake news', the market's reaction indicates a heightened sensitivity among investors regarding future trade relations, which could lead to increased volatility in stock prices.
- Geopolitical Implications: Against the backdrop of rising tensions in the Middle East, Trump's tariff threat introduces new risks to the global economy, potentially affecting U.S.-China diplomatic relations and their competitiveness in international markets.
See More
GFL Environmental to Acquire Secure Waste Infrastructure for C$6.4B
- Acquisition Overview: GFL Environmental has agreed to acquire Secure Waste Infrastructure for C$24.75 per share, totaling approximately C$6.4 billion, with 80% in GFL subordinate voting shares and 20% in cash, indicating a strong intent to expand its market presence.
- Premium Purchase: The acquisition price represents a 23% premium over the volume-weighted average price of Secure Waste shares for the past 60 trading days, reflecting GFL's confidence in the valuation and potential of Secure Waste in the waste management sector.
- Operational Synergies: Secure Waste operates over 80 assets in Western Canada and North Dakota, including 12 landfills and 55 waste treatment facilities, and the acquisition will enhance GFL's market share and service capabilities in the region, improving overall operational efficiency.
- Strategic Expansion: This acquisition follows GFL's recent purchase of Frontier Waste Solutions in Texas, highlighting its strategic positioning and commitment to continuous growth in the waste management industry.
See More
GFL Environmental to Acquire SECURE Waste for C$6.4 Billion
- Acquisition Agreement: GFL Environmental has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire all outstanding common shares of SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. for C$24.75 per share, representing an enterprise value of approximately C$6.4 billion, demonstrating GFL's commitment to expanding its footprint in the waste management sector.
- Payment Structure: The consideration will be satisfied through 80% GFL subordinate voting shares and 20% cash, a structure that not only alleviates cash flow pressure but also offers shareholders potential long-term value appreciation opportunities.
- Financial Impact: GFL anticipates that the acquisition will be immediately accretive to Adjusted Free Cash Flow per share by 12% to 15%, accelerating the achievement of its multi-year financial targets set during the Investor Day in early 2025, thereby further solidifying its market position.
- Market Strategy: SECURE operates a diversified waste management platform across over 80 locations in Western Canada and North Dakota, and this acquisition will enhance GFL's regional network and service capabilities, boosting its competitiveness in the North American waste management market.
See More
GFL Environmental Nears Acquisition of Secure Waste for C$6 Billion
- Acquisition Scale: GFL Environmental is nearing a deal to acquire Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. for over C$6 billion (approximately $4.33 billion), including debt, indicating GFL's aggressive stance in industry consolidation.
- Transaction Structure: The proposed deal is expected to be structured with about 20% cash and 80% stock, valuing Secure at roughly 11 times its EBITDA, reflecting GFL's recognition of Secure's value and future earnings potential.
- Market Expansion Potential: If completed, the acquisition would significantly deepen GFL's market presence in western Canada and expand its industrial and energy-related waste services, with Secure shareholders expected to hold about 15% of the combined company.
- Strategic Synergies: GFL's acquisition strategy aligns with its recent $900 million acquisition of Texas-based Frontier Waste Solutions, highlighting the strategic complementarity in terms of cost efficiencies and cross-selling opportunities.
See More
GFL Environmental Q1 Earnings Beat Expectations with Revenue Growth
- Revenue Growth: GFL Environmental reported Q1 revenue of $1.64 billion, reflecting a 5.1% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations by $450 million, indicating strong market performance and sustained customer demand.
- Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Increase: The company raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to approximately $2.23 billion, an increase of $90 million from previous estimates, reflecting synergies from acquisitions and improved operational efficiencies.
- Free Cash Flow Guidance Upward Revision: Adjusted free cash flow for 2026 is now estimated at approximately $850 million, up $15 million from earlier guidance, demonstrating improvements in capital management and cash generation capabilities.
- Capital Expenditure and Leverage: Full-year net capital expenditures are expected to be around $825 million, with cash interest expenses projected at approximately $445 million, while net leverage is anticipated to remain in the mid-3s by the end of 2026, indicating financial stability.
See More
GFL Environmental Set to Announce Q1 Earnings
- Earnings Announcement Date: GFL Environmental is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings on April 29th after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.09, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 115.5%, indicating strong profitability potential.
- Revenue Expectations Decline: Despite the optimistic EPS outlook, the revenue estimate stands at $1.19 billion, representing a 23.7% year-over-year decline, which highlights challenges the company faces in the current market environment and may impact investor confidence.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, GFL has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and has surpassed revenue estimates 100% of the time, demonstrating stability and reliability in its financial performance.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen five upward revisions and six downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced no upward revisions and ten downward revisions, indicating market caution and divergence regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Trump Threatens 50% Tariff on China Amid Trade Tensions
- Tariff Threat Escalation: President Trump threatened a staggering 50% tariff on China during a Fox News interview, which could significantly impact multinational companies like Apple that rely heavily on Chinese supply chains, further escalating trade tensions.
- Increased Economic Risks: This tariff threat not only poses operational challenges for global retail giants like Nike but also raises investor concerns about the economic repercussions of the ongoing Middle East conflict, adding layers of uncertainty to the market.
- Market Reaction: Although Trump labeled the underlying reports as potentially 'fake news', the market's reaction indicates a heightened sensitivity among investors regarding future trade relations, which could lead to increased volatility in stock prices.
- Geopolitical Implications: Against the backdrop of rising tensions in the Middle East, Trump's tariff threat introduces new risks to the global economy, potentially affecting U.S.-China diplomatic relations and their competitiveness in international markets.
See More
GFL Environmental to Acquire Secure Waste Infrastructure for C$6.4B
- Acquisition Overview: GFL Environmental has agreed to acquire Secure Waste Infrastructure for C$24.75 per share, totaling approximately C$6.4 billion, with 80% in GFL subordinate voting shares and 20% in cash, indicating a strong intent to expand its market presence.
- Premium Purchase: The acquisition price represents a 23% premium over the volume-weighted average price of Secure Waste shares for the past 60 trading days, reflecting GFL's confidence in the valuation and potential of Secure Waste in the waste management sector.
- Operational Synergies: Secure Waste operates over 80 assets in Western Canada and North Dakota, including 12 landfills and 55 waste treatment facilities, and the acquisition will enhance GFL's market share and service capabilities in the region, improving overall operational efficiency.
- Strategic Expansion: This acquisition follows GFL's recent purchase of Frontier Waste Solutions in Texas, highlighting its strategic positioning and commitment to continuous growth in the waste management industry.
See More
GFL Environmental to Acquire SECURE Waste for C$6.4 Billion
- Acquisition Agreement: GFL Environmental has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire all outstanding common shares of SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. for C$24.75 per share, representing an enterprise value of approximately C$6.4 billion, demonstrating GFL's commitment to expanding its footprint in the waste management sector.
- Payment Structure: The consideration will be satisfied through 80% GFL subordinate voting shares and 20% cash, a structure that not only alleviates cash flow pressure but also offers shareholders potential long-term value appreciation opportunities.
- Financial Impact: GFL anticipates that the acquisition will be immediately accretive to Adjusted Free Cash Flow per share by 12% to 15%, accelerating the achievement of its multi-year financial targets set during the Investor Day in early 2025, thereby further solidifying its market position.
- Market Strategy: SECURE operates a diversified waste management platform across over 80 locations in Western Canada and North Dakota, and this acquisition will enhance GFL's regional network and service capabilities, boosting its competitiveness in the North American waste management market.
See More
GFL Environmental Nears Acquisition of Secure Waste for C$6 Billion
- Acquisition Scale: GFL Environmental is nearing a deal to acquire Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. for over C$6 billion (approximately $4.33 billion), including debt, indicating GFL's aggressive stance in industry consolidation.
- Transaction Structure: The proposed deal is expected to be structured with about 20% cash and 80% stock, valuing Secure at roughly 11 times its EBITDA, reflecting GFL's recognition of Secure's value and future earnings potential.
- Market Expansion Potential: If completed, the acquisition would significantly deepen GFL's market presence in western Canada and expand its industrial and energy-related waste services, with Secure shareholders expected to hold about 15% of the combined company.
- Strategic Synergies: GFL's acquisition strategy aligns with its recent $900 million acquisition of Texas-based Frontier Waste Solutions, highlighting the strategic complementarity in terms of cost efficiencies and cross-selling opportunities.
See More
