Zenas Biopharma Inc's stock price fell by 56.49% as it hit a 20-day low, amidst a generally positive market environment with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.71% and the S&P 500 up 0.56%.
The decline comes despite the successful Phase 3 INDIGO trial results for Obexelimab, which demonstrated a 56% reduction in the risk of IgG4-RD flare. Zenas plans to submit a Biologics License Application to the FDA in Q2 2026, indicating strong confidence in the drug's market potential. However, the stock's performance suggests sector rotation as investors reassess their positions.
This significant drop in stock price raises questions about investor sentiment and market dynamics, especially given the promising clinical results. The upcoming regulatory submissions could be pivotal for Zenas's future, but current market reactions indicate a cautious approach from investors.
Wall Street analysts forecast ZBIO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ZBIO is 41.20 USD with a low forecast of 19.00 USD and a high forecast of 55.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ZBIO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ZBIO is 41.20 USD with a low forecast of 19.00 USD and a high forecast of 55.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 19.320
Low
19.00
Averages
41.20
High
55.00
Current: 19.320
Low
19.00
Averages
41.20
High
55.00
Citi
Buy
downgrade
$46 -> $43
2026-01-05
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$46 -> $43
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Citi lowered the firm's price target on Zenas BioPharma to $43 from $46 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company announced Phase 3 INDIGO results for obexelimab in IgG4-RD. A weaker hazard ratio than Uplizna's has resulted in a selloff to levels below the firm's "ultra-bear case" of $18 per share, which implies zero contribution for obex in IgG4-RD, the analyst says. The firm remains confident obexelimab will be approved and recommends investors seeking discounted opportunities at the outset of 2026 buy the stock, noting that its revised target reflects model adjustments based on increasing its view of the odds of success for obex in IgG4-RD to 80% from 60%, offset by slightly lower peak share estimates.
Morgan Stanley
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$37 -> $19
2026-01-05
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$37 -> $19
2026-01-05
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded Zenas BioPharma to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $19, down from $37, after the company announced top-line results from the Phase 3 INDIGO study evaluating obexelimab in IgG4-RD. While INDIGO met its primary endpoint, demonstrating a 56% reduction in the risk of IgG4-RD flare vs. placebo, the results fell short of the benchmark set by Uplizna, which demonstrated an 87% reduction in IgG4-RD flare risk versus placebo, the analyst tells investors. Obexelimab likely has a place in IgG4-RD based on the trial results, but peak share may be lower than previously anticipated, the analyst added.
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Morgan Stanley
Judah Frommer
Overweight
maintain
$34 -> $37
2025-11-13
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Judah Frommer
Price Target
$34 -> $37
2025-11-13
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Judah Frommer raised the firm's price target on Zenas BioPharma (ZBIO) to $37 from $34 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares after the company reported its Q3 update. The "highly anticipated" Phase 3 INDIGO results in IgG4-RD expected around year-end "should offer another opportunity for positive share inflection" if obexelimab data are competitive with Amgen's (AMGN) Uplizna, the analyst tells investors.
H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright
Buy
upgrade
$30 -> $44
2025-10-28
Reason
H.C. Wainwright
H.C. Wainwright
Price Target
$30 -> $44
2025-10-28
upgrade
Buy
Reason
H.C. Wainwright raised the firm's price target on Zenas BioPharma to $44 from $30 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm says obexelimab achieved the primary endpoint of 95% relative reduction in new gadolinium (Gd)-enhancing T1 lesions versus placebo in the Phase 2 MoonStone trial.
About ZBIO
Zenas BioPharma, Inc. is a clinical-stage global biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of transformative therapies for patients with autoimmune diseases. The Company's lead product candidate, obexelimab, is a bifunctional monoclonal antibody designed to bind both CD19 and FcyRIIb, which are broadly present across B cell lineage, to inhibit the activity of cells that are implicated in many autoimmune diseases without depleting them. The Company is developing obexelimab as a potential immunology and inflammation (I&I) franchise for patients in several autoimmune diseases. The first three indications it is pursuing include immunoglobulin G4-related disease (IgG4-RD), relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Its other programs include ZB002 (an anti-TNFα monoclonal antibody), ZB004 (a CTLA-4-Ig fusion), and ZB001 and related programs. ZB002 is a recombinant human monoclonal antibody directed at human TNFα.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
