Wedbush Analysts Issue Bearish Outlook on Instacart Ahead of Earnings
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 30 2025
0mins
Should l Buy CART?
Source: Business Insider
Maplebear Inc. (CART) saw a significant decline of 6.42% as it crossed below its 5-day SMA, reflecting investor concerns ahead of its upcoming earnings report.
Wedbush analysts have expressed a bearish outlook on Instacart, assigning an Underperform rating due to increasing competition from omnichannel retailers like Amazon and Walmart. They highlighted that the mobility, delivery, and grocery sectors are facing softening demand, which could impact profitability and investor confidence. This caution comes as Instacart prepares to report its Q4 and full year 2025 financial results on February 12, 2026, raising concerns about potential earnings that may fall below expectations.
The implications of this bearish sentiment could lead to further volatility in Instacart's stock price as investors reassess their positions ahead of the earnings announcement. The competitive landscape and market conditions will be critical factors to watch in the coming weeks.
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Analyst Views on CART
Wall Street analysts forecast CART stock price to rise
25 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
9 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 37.980
Low
36.00
Averages
50.83
High
66.00
Current: 37.980
Low
36.00
Averages
50.83
High
66.00
About CART
Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, is a grocery technology company in North America, works with grocers and retailers to transform how people shop. The Company partners with more than 1,800 national, regional, and local retail banners to facilitate online shopping, delivery and pickup services from more than 100,000 stores across North America on the Instacart Marketplace. The Instacart Platform offers retailers a suite of enterprise-grade technology products and services to power their e-commerce experiences, fulfill orders, digitize brick-and-mortar stores, provide advertising services, and glean insights. With Instacart Ads, thousands of consumer-packaged goods (CPG) brands - from category leaders to emerging brands - partner with the Company to connect directly with consumers online, right at the point of purchase. The Company, through its Instacart Health, provides tools to increase nutrition security and make healthy choices easier for consumers.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Incline Global Exits Entire Position in Maplebear
- Complete Exit: Incline Global Management LLC fully exited its position in Maplebear by selling 422,576 shares in Q4 2025, valued at $15.53 million, indicating a bearish outlook on the company's future prospects.
- Position Impact: Prior to this transaction, Maplebear represented 4.6% of Incline Global's 13F AUM, and the complete divestment significantly alters the fund's investment strategy and portfolio composition moving forward.
- Declining Market Performance: As of February 17, 2026, Maplebear's stock price stood at $36.72, reflecting a 27.1% decline over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 39.9 percentage points, raising concerns about its growth potential.
- Weak Revenue Growth: Although Instacart reported $3.7 billion in revenue for 2025, an 11% year-over-year increase, the projected Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $280 million to $290 million falls short of last year's $244 million, intensifying market fears of slowing growth.
See More
Incline Global Exits Entire Position in Maplebear
- Complete Exit: Incline Global Management LLC sold 422,576 shares of Maplebear in Q4 2025 for an estimated $15.53 million, marking a complete exit from a position that previously represented 4.6% of its assets, indicating a bearish outlook on the company.
- Impact on AUM: This transaction accounted for 5.31% of Incline Global's 13F reportable assets under management, reflecting a lack of confidence in Maplebear's future performance, which could affect the overall stability of the fund's investment portfolio.
- Poor Market Performance: As of February 2026, Maplebear's stock price was $36.72, down 27.1% year-over-year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 39.9 percentage points, highlighting challenges in the competitive online grocery market.
- Instacart Outlook: Despite Instacart achieving $3.7 billion in revenue for 2025, an 11% year-over-year increase, the forecast for Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $280 million to $290 million raises concerns about slowing growth compared to a 23% increase in Q1 2025, intensifying market worries.
See More
BETA Technologies Reports Disappointing Q4 Results
- Earnings Miss: BETA Technologies reported a Q4 loss of $2.02 per share, significantly worse than the analyst consensus estimate of a loss of $0.84, indicating substantial challenges in profitability that could undermine investor confidence.
- Sales Beat: Despite the significant losses, the company achieved quarterly sales of $11.133 million, surpassing the analyst consensus of $7.859 million, suggesting some resilience in market demand that could lay the groundwork for future growth.
- Stock Reaction: In pre-market trading, BETA's shares fell 3.1% to $18.67, reflecting a negative investor response to the earnings report, which may lead to increased liquidity pressure in the short term.
- Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment is bearish, with Dow futures down over 1%, indicating investor concerns about the economic outlook, which could further impact BETA Technologies and other related stocks.
See More
GOODNOW Investment Group Increases Stake in Maplebear
- Investment Increase: GOODNOW Investment Group added 131,723 shares of Maplebear (CART) in Q4 2025, raising its stake to 5.78%, with the investment value increasing by $16.17 million, indicating strong confidence in the company.
- Market Performance: As of February 16, 2026, Maplebear's share price stood at $36.30, down 27.4% over the past year and lagging the S&P 500 by 39.18 percentage points, reflecting market concerns about its future growth.
- Business Model Shift: Maplebear connects consumers with personal shoppers for rapid online grocery shopping and delivery, and as consumers return to physical stores, investor focus has shifted from delivery growth to the underlying marketplace economics.
- Advertising Revenue Growth: Instacart's profitability increasingly relies on advertising revenue rather than delivery fees, with brands significantly increasing spending on promotions within the app, making advertising a key driver of earnings and potentially reducing reliance on delivery economics in the future.
See More
GOODNOW Investment Group Increases Stake in Maplebear
- Increased Stake: GOODNOW Investment Group acquired an additional 131,723 shares of Maplebear (NASDAQ:CART) during Q4 2025, with an estimated transaction value of $5.39 million, indicating confidence in the company's potential.
- Value Growth: The position's value increased by $16.17 million at quarter-end, reflecting both trading activities and stock price changes, suggesting a positive market outlook for Maplebear's future.
- Asset Management Proportion: The new stake totals 1,377,881 shares valued at $61.98 million, representing 5.78% of GOODNOW's 13F reportable AUM, which, while not in the top five holdings, still signifies a strategic investment decision.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of February 16, 2026, Maplebear's shares were priced at $36.30, down 27.4% over the past year and lagging the S&P 500 by 39.18 percentage points, highlighting investor concerns regarding its evolving profitability model.
See More
Goodnow Investment Group Increases Stake in Instacart
- Stake Increase: Goodnow Investment Group added 131,723 shares of Maplebear (NASDAQ: CART) in Q4 2025, raising its stake to 5.78%, with the investment value increasing by $16.17 million, reflecting confidence in Instacart's growth potential.
- Market Performance: As of February 16, 2026, CART shares were priced at $36.30, down 27.4% over the past year and lagging the S&P 500 by 39.18 percentage points, indicating market concerns regarding its evolving profitability model.
- Profitability Shift: Instacart's profitability increasingly relies on advertising revenue rather than delivery fees, as consumer packaged goods companies pay to promote products within the app, offering significantly higher margins, which may influence investor perceptions of its future value.
- Market Competition: As more retailers join the Instacart platform and brands increase marketing spend, advertising inventory grows with transaction volume, potentially strengthening Instacart's position in the grocery ecosystem and reducing reliance on delivery economics.
See More
Incline Global Exits Entire Position in Maplebear
- Complete Exit: Incline Global Management LLC fully exited its position in Maplebear by selling 422,576 shares in Q4 2025, valued at $15.53 million, indicating a bearish outlook on the company's future prospects.
- Position Impact: Prior to this transaction, Maplebear represented 4.6% of Incline Global's 13F AUM, and the complete divestment significantly alters the fund's investment strategy and portfolio composition moving forward.
- Declining Market Performance: As of February 17, 2026, Maplebear's stock price stood at $36.72, reflecting a 27.1% decline over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 39.9 percentage points, raising concerns about its growth potential.
- Weak Revenue Growth: Although Instacart reported $3.7 billion in revenue for 2025, an 11% year-over-year increase, the projected Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $280 million to $290 million falls short of last year's $244 million, intensifying market fears of slowing growth.
See More
Incline Global Exits Entire Position in Maplebear
- Complete Exit: Incline Global Management LLC sold 422,576 shares of Maplebear in Q4 2025 for an estimated $15.53 million, marking a complete exit from a position that previously represented 4.6% of its assets, indicating a bearish outlook on the company.
- Impact on AUM: This transaction accounted for 5.31% of Incline Global's 13F reportable assets under management, reflecting a lack of confidence in Maplebear's future performance, which could affect the overall stability of the fund's investment portfolio.
- Poor Market Performance: As of February 2026, Maplebear's stock price was $36.72, down 27.1% year-over-year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by 39.9 percentage points, highlighting challenges in the competitive online grocery market.
- Instacart Outlook: Despite Instacart achieving $3.7 billion in revenue for 2025, an 11% year-over-year increase, the forecast for Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $280 million to $290 million raises concerns about slowing growth compared to a 23% increase in Q1 2025, intensifying market worries.
See More
BETA Technologies Reports Disappointing Q4 Results
- Earnings Miss: BETA Technologies reported a Q4 loss of $2.02 per share, significantly worse than the analyst consensus estimate of a loss of $0.84, indicating substantial challenges in profitability that could undermine investor confidence.
- Sales Beat: Despite the significant losses, the company achieved quarterly sales of $11.133 million, surpassing the analyst consensus of $7.859 million, suggesting some resilience in market demand that could lay the groundwork for future growth.
- Stock Reaction: In pre-market trading, BETA's shares fell 3.1% to $18.67, reflecting a negative investor response to the earnings report, which may lead to increased liquidity pressure in the short term.
- Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment is bearish, with Dow futures down over 1%, indicating investor concerns about the economic outlook, which could further impact BETA Technologies and other related stocks.
See More
GOODNOW Investment Group Increases Stake in Maplebear
- Investment Increase: GOODNOW Investment Group added 131,723 shares of Maplebear (CART) in Q4 2025, raising its stake to 5.78%, with the investment value increasing by $16.17 million, indicating strong confidence in the company.
- Market Performance: As of February 16, 2026, Maplebear's share price stood at $36.30, down 27.4% over the past year and lagging the S&P 500 by 39.18 percentage points, reflecting market concerns about its future growth.
- Business Model Shift: Maplebear connects consumers with personal shoppers for rapid online grocery shopping and delivery, and as consumers return to physical stores, investor focus has shifted from delivery growth to the underlying marketplace economics.
- Advertising Revenue Growth: Instacart's profitability increasingly relies on advertising revenue rather than delivery fees, with brands significantly increasing spending on promotions within the app, making advertising a key driver of earnings and potentially reducing reliance on delivery economics in the future.
See More
GOODNOW Investment Group Increases Stake in Maplebear
- Increased Stake: GOODNOW Investment Group acquired an additional 131,723 shares of Maplebear (NASDAQ:CART) during Q4 2025, with an estimated transaction value of $5.39 million, indicating confidence in the company's potential.
- Value Growth: The position's value increased by $16.17 million at quarter-end, reflecting both trading activities and stock price changes, suggesting a positive market outlook for Maplebear's future.
- Asset Management Proportion: The new stake totals 1,377,881 shares valued at $61.98 million, representing 5.78% of GOODNOW's 13F reportable AUM, which, while not in the top five holdings, still signifies a strategic investment decision.
- Market Performance Analysis: As of February 16, 2026, Maplebear's shares were priced at $36.30, down 27.4% over the past year and lagging the S&P 500 by 39.18 percentage points, highlighting investor concerns regarding its evolving profitability model.
See More
Goodnow Investment Group Increases Stake in Instacart
- Stake Increase: Goodnow Investment Group added 131,723 shares of Maplebear (NASDAQ: CART) in Q4 2025, raising its stake to 5.78%, with the investment value increasing by $16.17 million, reflecting confidence in Instacart's growth potential.
- Market Performance: As of February 16, 2026, CART shares were priced at $36.30, down 27.4% over the past year and lagging the S&P 500 by 39.18 percentage points, indicating market concerns regarding its evolving profitability model.
- Profitability Shift: Instacart's profitability increasingly relies on advertising revenue rather than delivery fees, as consumer packaged goods companies pay to promote products within the app, offering significantly higher margins, which may influence investor perceptions of its future value.
- Market Competition: As more retailers join the Instacart platform and brands increase marketing spend, advertising inventory grows with transaction volume, potentially strengthening Instacart's position in the grocery ecosystem and reducing reliance on delivery economics.
See More
