Should You Buy Maplebear Inc (CART) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
37.080
1 Day change
-1.96%
52 Week Range
53.500
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. CART is in a clear short-term downtrend with worsening momentum and fresh competition-driven negative news (Amazon grocery-delivery expansion). While fundamentals and options sentiment aren’t collapsing—and hedge funds have been buying—the technical setup suggests you’re more likely buying into ongoing weakness than the start of a durable rebound. I would HOLD today and only turn constructive after the price reclaims key resistance (~39.17 pivot) or after the Feb 12 earnings provides clarity.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum is bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying persistent downside pressure. MACD histogram is negative and expanding (-0.352), confirming weakening momentum. RSI(6) at ~29.4 is near oversold, which can spark bounces, but oversold readings can persist in a downtrend.
Key levels: Price ~37.74 is sitting just above S1 support ~37.40; a clean break below that increases risk of a move toward S2 ~36.31. Upside resistance starts at the pivot ~39.17, then R1 ~40.93.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning is more call-leaning than put-leaning (OI put/call 0.69; volume put/call 0.4), which is generally bullish/constructive sentiment. However, overall activity is muted: today’s volume is ~50.6% of the 30-day average, suggesting the bullish skew is not paired with strong conviction. Implied vol (30d ~42%) is above historical vol (~33%), indicating the market is pricing elevated near-term uncertainty (earnings and competitive headlines). IV percentile ~50.6 is mid-range (not extreme). Net: sentiment mildly bullish, but not a strong “risk-on” surge.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
- Hedge fund activity: buying increased ~177% last quarter, a supportive signal for longer-term positioning.
- Financial momentum (latest reported quarter): solid YoY growth in revenue, net income, and EPS.
- Upcoming earnings (QDEC 2025 reported Feb 12 after hours) could reset sentiment if results/guidance show resilience despite competitive noise.
- Options skew favors calls (put/call ratios low), implying investors are still positioning for upside.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Event-driven headline: Amazon expanded grocery delivery to 5,000+ U.S. cities, directly intensifying competitive pressure and was tied to a sharp stock drop (~7% on Jan 27).
- Technical trend is decisively bearish (downtrend + negative MACD expansion). Support is close; a breakdown below ~37.40 can accelerate selling.
- Analyst price targets have been trimmed recently (e.g., Baird and Stifel cuts on 2026-01-27), reflecting near-term caution heading into earnings.
- No supportive signal from Intellectia modules (no AI Stock Picker / SwingMax buy signals).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to ~$939M (+10.21% YoY). Net income rose to ~$142M (+20.34% YoY) and EPS to ~$0.51 (+21.43% YoY), showing improving profitability. One soft spot: gross margin slipped to ~67.41% (-1.14% YoY), suggesting some pressure (mix, incentives, or competitive dynamics). Overall, growth and earnings power look healthy, but margins are a watch item given intensifying competition.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Wall Street remains broadly positive (multiple Buys/Outperforms), but price targets have been coming down. Notably on 2026-01-27, Baird cut PT to $49 (Outperform) and Stifel cut PT to $46 (Buy). Earlier, several firms cut targets after Q3 (e.g., JPM, Goldman, Benchmark, Mizuho), though many kept positive ratings.
Pros (Street view): healthy core marketplace, secular online grocery growth, and retail media/ads as a longer-term tailwind.
Cons (Street view): competition—especially Amazon—could pressure pricing/take rates and investor expectations into 2026.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available; no politician/influential trading activity provided in the dataset.
Wall Street analysts forecast CART stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CART is 51.62 USD with a low forecast of 40 USD and a high forecast of 66 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
22 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CART stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CART is 51.62 USD with a low forecast of 40 USD and a high forecast of 66 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Buy
8 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 37.820
Low
40
Averages
51.62
High
66
Current: 37.820
Low
40
Averages
51.62
High
66
Morgan Stanley
analyst
Equal Weight
maintain
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
analyst
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
After Amazon (AMZN) announced a few notable updates to its grocery strategy, including new grocery investments and its disclosure that it is now a top-three U.S. grocer, Morgan Stanley remains "bullish" Amazon, but adds that this news has also created a "tactical buying opportunity" in Instacart (CART). The latter is at a trough multiple, revisions are ahead and the firm sees reasons to believe 2026 numbers "seem fine," says the analyst, who has an Equal Weight rating on Instacart shares.
Baird
Colin Sebastian
Outperform -> NULL
downgrade
$50 -> $49
2026-01-27
New
Reason
Baird
Colin Sebastian
Price Target
$50 -> $49
2026-01-27
New
downgrade
Outperform -> NULL
Reason
Baird analyst Colin Sebastian lowered the firm's price target on Instacart to $49 from $50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model after reviewing key issues ahead of earnings.
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