Vail Resorts Reports Significant Decline in Ski Season Metrics
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 16 2025
0mins
Should l Buy MTN?
Vail Resorts' stock fell sharply, hitting a 52-week low amid disappointing ski season metrics.
The company reported a 14.9% decline in total skier visits compared to the previous year, attributed to adverse weather conditions that have significantly reduced the appeal of ski resorts. Additionally, total lift revenue dropped by 5.6%, with ski school and dining revenues decreasing by 12.0% and 11.7%, respectively, indicating a troubling trend in consumer spending that could further impact financial performance.
These results highlight the severe climate challenges faced this winter, with record low snowfall and warm temperatures leading to early resort closures, particularly in the Rockies. The company will need to closely monitor sales trends as spring pass sales show a moderate decline, reflecting weakened consumer demand for the upcoming ski season.
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Analyst Views on MTN
Wall Street analysts forecast MTN stock price to rise
9 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
5 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 125.260
Low
145.00
Averages
169.54
High
234.00
Current: 125.260
Low
145.00
Averages
169.54
High
234.00
About MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc. is a network of destination and close-to-home ski resorts in the world including Vail Mountain, Breckenridge, Park City Mountain, Whistler Blackcomb, Stowe, and 32 additional resorts across North America; Andermatt-Sedrun and Crans-Montana Mountain Resort in Switzerland; and Perisher, Hotham, and Falls Creek in Australia - all available on the Company's Epic Pass. The Company's segments include Mountain, Lodging and Real Estate. It also provides ancillary services, primarily including ski school, dining and retail/rental operations. The Company owns and/or manages a collection of elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand, a portfolio of vacation rentals, condominiums and branded hotels located in close proximity to its mountain destinations, as well as the Grand Teton Lodge Company in Jackson Hole, Wyo. The Company operates more than 250 retail and rental locations across North America. It owns, develops and sells real estate in and around its resort communities.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Youth Discounts: New pricing for skiers aged 13 to 30 offers a 20% discount on the Epic Pass and Epic Local Pass, unlocking savings of up to $220, while those who skied with a lift ticket during the 2025/26 season can save an additional $175, effectively targeting the younger demographic.
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- New Discount Policy: Young skiers aged 13-30 can now save 20% on the Epic Pass and Epic Local Pass, unlocking savings of up to $220, which is expected to attract more young customers to skiing activities.
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- Revenue Declines: Lift revenue fell by 5.6%, while ski school and dining revenues decreased by 12% and 11.7%, respectively, leading the company to expect FY26 EBITDA to be at the lower end of its guidance range of $745M to $775M.
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- Revenue Drop: Total lift revenue fell by 5.6%, while ski school and dining revenues decreased by 12.0% and 11.7%, respectively, reflecting reduced consumer spending that negatively impacts the company's overall financial performance.
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- Youth Discounts: New pricing for skiers aged 13 to 30 offers a 20% discount on the Epic Pass and Epic Local Pass, unlocking savings of up to $220, while those who skied with a lift ticket during the 2025/26 season can save an additional $175, effectively targeting the younger demographic.
- Epic Friend Tickets: Before May 25, eligible Epic Pass holders can obtain six Epic Friend Tickets, providing a 50% discount on lift tickets, which promotes social skiing activities and enhances customer loyalty.
- Summer Activities and Rewards: Epic Pass holders can enjoy a 20% discount on summer experiences, including bike rentals and dining, allowing them to experience mountain activities before the winter season, thereby enhancing overall customer experience and satisfaction.
See More
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- Lowest Price for Epic Pass: The 2026/27 Epic Pass is currently priced at $1,089 for adults and $869 for teens, with prices set to increase after May 25, prompting consumers to seize the opportunity to lock in savings for year-round skiing experiences.
- New Discount Policy: Young skiers aged 13-30 can now save 20% on the Epic Pass and Epic Local Pass, unlocking savings of up to $220, which is expected to attract more young customers to skiing activities.
- Epic Friend Tickets: May 25 marks the last chance to obtain six Epic Friend Tickets, allowing pass holders to enjoy a 50% discount, thereby enhancing the social aspect of skiing and increasing customer loyalty.
- Rich Summer Activities: Epic Pass holders can enjoy a 20% discount on summer activities, including mountain biking and live music events, which enhances the overall customer experience and strengthens brand loyalty.
See More
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- Ski Visit Decline: Vail Resorts reported a 14.9% drop in season-to-date ski visits at its North American destinations, reflecting the severe impact of record low snowfall and warm temperatures across the western U.S.
- Revenue Declines: Lift revenue fell by 5.6%, while ski school and dining revenues decreased by 12% and 11.7%, respectively, leading the company to expect FY26 EBITDA to be at the lower end of its guidance range of $745M to $775M.
- Climate Impact Intensifies: CEO Rob Katz noted that March's low snowfall and warmer temperatures resulted in earlier-than-expected resort closures, with a 25% decline in visitation in the Rockies, significantly straining the company's operations.
- Unfavorable Outlook: Looking ahead to the spring 2026/2027 season, Vail Resorts anticipates a moderate decline in pass product units and slight decreases in sales dollars, indicating ongoing climate challenges that may affect future performance.
See More
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- Visitor Decline: Total skier visits for the season-to-date through April 19, 2026, decreased by 14.9% compared to the prior year, indicating a significant reduction in the appeal of ski resorts due to adverse weather conditions, which could lead to further revenue declines.
- Revenue Drop: Total lift revenue fell by 5.6%, while ski school and dining revenues decreased by 12.0% and 11.7%, respectively, reflecting reduced consumer spending that negatively impacts the company's overall financial performance.
- Severe Climate Impact: The 2025/2026 winter has been one of the most challenging in history for the western U.S., with record low snowfall and historically warm temperatures causing early closures at many resorts, particularly in the Rockies where visitation dropped by 25%.
- Spring Sales Trends: Although spring pass sales for the 2026/2027 season have commenced, there has been a moderate decline in both units sold and sales dollars as of April 12, suggesting weakened consumer demand for the upcoming ski season, necessitating close monitoring of future sales trends.
See More
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- Production Disruption: Recent airstrikes on Iran's two largest steel plants, Mobarakeh and Khuzestan, have disrupted production, with these facilities representing less than 20% of Iran's total steel capacity; however, as national utilization rates were already below 50% before the strikes, recovery could be swift by reallocating output to unaffected sites.
- Regional Market Volatility: The impact on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is more pronounced, as approximately 65% of their steel capacity is constrained by reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for raw material imports, meaning that direct military strikes on GCC plants would have a limited incremental effect on production levels.
- Increased Import Reliance: With domestic capacity under threat, the Middle East is expected to deepen its reliance on international markets to fill the supply gap, as the GCC is already a major net importer of steel, with China supplying over 60% of its imports, which may drive higher global blast furnace utilization rates.
- Raw Material Price Surge: Middle Eastern buyers seeking to secure finished steel from Asian exporters could lead to a
See More
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- Capital Authorization Renewal: The Extraordinary General Meeting will discuss renewing the Board's authorization to issue and cancel shares under specific conditions, reflecting the company's focus on flexible capital management, which may support future financing and investment opportunities.
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