Ollie's Expands Amid Tariff Challenges and Strong Sales Growth
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 31 2024
0mins
Should l Buy OLLI?
Source: Business Insider
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. saw its stock price decline by 5.15% as it crossed below the 5-day SMA, despite the broader market's gains with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.65% and the S&P 500 up 0.61%.
The company opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, achieving a 17% year-over-year increase in Q4 net sales to approximately $779 million. This growth comes amid tariff disruptions, with management stating that 'Tariffs are just another form of disruption, and we benefit from it.' Additionally, Ollie's acquired 63 former Big Lots locations, positioning itself for significant expansion with a long-term goal of over 1,300 stores, nearly doubling its current footprint.
Ollie's strategic expansion and strong sales performance highlight its resilience in a challenging retail environment. The company's ability to attract value-seeking consumers amid economic pressures positions it well for future growth, despite the recent stock price decline.
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Analyst Views on OLLI
Wall Street analysts forecast OLLI stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 92.390
Low
120.00
Averages
144.46
High
162.00
Current: 92.390
Low
120.00
Averages
144.46
High
162.00
About OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory. The Company and its subsidiaries principally buys overproduced, overstocked, and closeout merchandise from manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors, brokers, and other retailers. In addition, it augments its name-brand closeout deals with private label products. It offers customers a selection of brand name products, including housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics. The Company operates over 575 stores in 31 states. The Company's retail locations are located in Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and West Virginia.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Tariff Volatility Impacts Retail Investing
- Ollie's Growth Amid Disruption: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, with Q4 net sales increasing 17% year-over-year to approximately $779 million, demonstrating strong performance amid tariff disruptions, as management stated, 'Tariffs are just another form of disruption, and we benefit from it.'
- Acquisition Opportunities: Ollie's acquired 63 former Big Lots locations through bankruptcy auctions, securing prime real estate in value-retail corridors, with a long-term goal of expanding store count to over 1,300 locations, nearly doubling its current footprint, showcasing its ambitious growth strategy.
- Five Below's Adaptability: Despite sourcing 60% of its products from China, Five Below achieved a 15.4% comparable sales increase and a 24.3% revenue growth to $1.73 billion in Q4 fiscal 2025, reflecting its ability to navigate tariff pressures effectively.
- Future Outlook: Five Below's management guided for fiscal 2026 sales between $5.20 billion and $5.30 billion, with adjusted EPS expected between $7.74 and $8.25, indicating strong market adaptability and growth potential despite ongoing tariff costs.
See More
Ollie's and Five Below Navigate Tariff Challenges
- Ollie's Expansion Momentum: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, with fourth-quarter net sales increasing 17% year-over-year to approximately $779 million, demonstrating significant growth opportunities amid tariff-induced market disruptions.
- Inventory Acquisition Advantage: By acquiring 63 former Big Lots locations, Ollie's secured prime retail real estate, further solidifying its position in the value retail market, with a long-term goal of expanding store count to over 1,300, nearly double its current footprint.
- Five Below's Adaptability: Despite sourcing about 60% of its products from China, Five Below successfully adjusted its product assortment post-tariff implementation in April 2025, achieving a 15.4% year-over-year surge in comparable sales and a 24.3% revenue increase to $1.73 billion in Q4, showcasing its strong market adaptability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Five Below projects fiscal 2026 sales between $5.20 billion and $5.30 billion, with adjusted EPS guidance of $7.74 to $8.25, exceeding consensus expectations despite ongoing tariff pressures, reflecting robust business resilience.
See More
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Thrives Amid Economic Pressure
- Consumer Behavior Shift: As American households face economic pressures, consumers are increasingly seeking value-driven shopping options, and Ollie's Bargain Outlet successfully attracts these price-conscious customers by offering discounts of 20% to 70%, enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Store Expansion Strategy: Ollie's opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, surpassing its target of 75, with plans to add another 75 stores in 2026, and a long-term goal of over 1,300 locations, demonstrating strong growth potential and market penetration capabilities.
- Strong Financial Performance: The company reported net sales of $2.65 billion for fiscal 2025, with projections nearing $3 billion for 2026, and earnings per share (EPS) expected to range between $4.40 and $4.48, reflecting its ability to achieve double-digit growth amid economic uncertainty.
- Acquisition Opportunities: By acquiring 63 former Big Lots locations during the bankruptcy auction, Ollie's is entering markets with established value-shopping customer bases, which is expected to drive significant market share gains over the next few years, further solidifying its leadership in the discount retail sector.
See More
Ollie's Thrives Amid Economic Pressure with Aggressive Expansion Plans
- Consumer Shift to Discount Retail: Amid financial pressures, Ollie's has attracted a significant number of value-seeking consumers, leveraging its deep discount strategy where prices are typically 20% to 70% below regular retail, thereby enhancing customer loyalty and market share.
- Strong Store Expansion Momentum: Ollie's opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, exceeding its target of 75, with plans to add another 75 stores in 2026, and a long-term goal of over 1,300 locations, showcasing its robust growth potential.
- Solid Financial Position: Ollie's achieved net sales of $2.65 billion in fiscal 2025, with projections nearing $3 billion for 2026, and an expected EPS range of $4.40 to $4.48, indicating strong profitability even amid economic uncertainty.
- Advantage of No Long-Term Debt: With no long-term debt, strong free cash flow, and an accelerating share repurchase plan, Ollie's is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities while maintaining defensive qualities, making it a “hold forever” choice for investors.
See More
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Upgraded to Buy by Jefferies
- Market Underappreciation: Jefferies upgraded Ollie's Bargain Outlet from hold to buy and raised its price target from $120 to $130, indicating about 42% potential upside, highlighting the market's undervaluation of its growth potential.
- Unique Competitive Edge: Ollie's ability to purchase cheap excess inventory at scale is a key driver behind Jefferies analyst Randal Konik's upgrade, underscoring the company's leading position in the discount retail sector.
- Significant Expansion Potential: With approximately 645 stores compared to its closest competitor's 159, Ollie's management sees growth opportunities to expand to 1,300 stores, indicating robust growth prospects.
- Changing Market Dynamics: As retail pressures increase, more clearance goods are available at discounted prices, while fewer buyers are competing, enhancing Ollie's sourcing advantages and further solidifying its market position.
See More
Jefferies Upgrades Ollie's to Buy, Highlights Competitive Edge
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) from Hold to Buy, with analyst Randal Konik noting that investors are underestimating the scale advantages that are becoming evident, indicating improved fundamentals for the company.
- Market Competitive Edge: Ollie's is currently the only closeout retailer with true national reach and distribution, boasting approximately 645 stores compared to about 159 for the next closest competitor, highlighting its dominance in mixed and clearance inventory.
- Valuation Appeal: Despite improved fundamentals, Ollie's is trading near the low end of its historical range, with a P/E discount of 6X to 7X compared to Five Below (FIVE), indicating significant investment appeal.
- Price Potential: Jefferies set a price target of $130 for Ollie's, representing over 40% upside potential, and the stock rose 1.8% to $92.95 in Thursday morning trading, reflecting market confidence in its future performance.
See More
Tariff Volatility Impacts Retail Investing
- Ollie's Growth Amid Disruption: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, with Q4 net sales increasing 17% year-over-year to approximately $779 million, demonstrating strong performance amid tariff disruptions, as management stated, 'Tariffs are just another form of disruption, and we benefit from it.'
- Acquisition Opportunities: Ollie's acquired 63 former Big Lots locations through bankruptcy auctions, securing prime real estate in value-retail corridors, with a long-term goal of expanding store count to over 1,300 locations, nearly doubling its current footprint, showcasing its ambitious growth strategy.
- Five Below's Adaptability: Despite sourcing 60% of its products from China, Five Below achieved a 15.4% comparable sales increase and a 24.3% revenue growth to $1.73 billion in Q4 fiscal 2025, reflecting its ability to navigate tariff pressures effectively.
- Future Outlook: Five Below's management guided for fiscal 2026 sales between $5.20 billion and $5.30 billion, with adjusted EPS expected between $7.74 and $8.25, indicating strong market adaptability and growth potential despite ongoing tariff costs.
See More
Ollie's and Five Below Navigate Tariff Challenges
- Ollie's Expansion Momentum: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, with fourth-quarter net sales increasing 17% year-over-year to approximately $779 million, demonstrating significant growth opportunities amid tariff-induced market disruptions.
- Inventory Acquisition Advantage: By acquiring 63 former Big Lots locations, Ollie's secured prime retail real estate, further solidifying its position in the value retail market, with a long-term goal of expanding store count to over 1,300, nearly double its current footprint.
- Five Below's Adaptability: Despite sourcing about 60% of its products from China, Five Below successfully adjusted its product assortment post-tariff implementation in April 2025, achieving a 15.4% year-over-year surge in comparable sales and a 24.3% revenue increase to $1.73 billion in Q4, showcasing its strong market adaptability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Five Below projects fiscal 2026 sales between $5.20 billion and $5.30 billion, with adjusted EPS guidance of $7.74 to $8.25, exceeding consensus expectations despite ongoing tariff pressures, reflecting robust business resilience.
See More
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Thrives Amid Economic Pressure
- Consumer Behavior Shift: As American households face economic pressures, consumers are increasingly seeking value-driven shopping options, and Ollie's Bargain Outlet successfully attracts these price-conscious customers by offering discounts of 20% to 70%, enhancing its competitive position in the market.
- Store Expansion Strategy: Ollie's opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, surpassing its target of 75, with plans to add another 75 stores in 2026, and a long-term goal of over 1,300 locations, demonstrating strong growth potential and market penetration capabilities.
- Strong Financial Performance: The company reported net sales of $2.65 billion for fiscal 2025, with projections nearing $3 billion for 2026, and earnings per share (EPS) expected to range between $4.40 and $4.48, reflecting its ability to achieve double-digit growth amid economic uncertainty.
- Acquisition Opportunities: By acquiring 63 former Big Lots locations during the bankruptcy auction, Ollie's is entering markets with established value-shopping customer bases, which is expected to drive significant market share gains over the next few years, further solidifying its leadership in the discount retail sector.
See More
Ollie's Thrives Amid Economic Pressure with Aggressive Expansion Plans
- Consumer Shift to Discount Retail: Amid financial pressures, Ollie's has attracted a significant number of value-seeking consumers, leveraging its deep discount strategy where prices are typically 20% to 70% below regular retail, thereby enhancing customer loyalty and market share.
- Strong Store Expansion Momentum: Ollie's opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, exceeding its target of 75, with plans to add another 75 stores in 2026, and a long-term goal of over 1,300 locations, showcasing its robust growth potential.
- Solid Financial Position: Ollie's achieved net sales of $2.65 billion in fiscal 2025, with projections nearing $3 billion for 2026, and an expected EPS range of $4.40 to $4.48, indicating strong profitability even amid economic uncertainty.
- Advantage of No Long-Term Debt: With no long-term debt, strong free cash flow, and an accelerating share repurchase plan, Ollie's is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities while maintaining defensive qualities, making it a “hold forever” choice for investors.
See More
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Upgraded to Buy by Jefferies
- Market Underappreciation: Jefferies upgraded Ollie's Bargain Outlet from hold to buy and raised its price target from $120 to $130, indicating about 42% potential upside, highlighting the market's undervaluation of its growth potential.
- Unique Competitive Edge: Ollie's ability to purchase cheap excess inventory at scale is a key driver behind Jefferies analyst Randal Konik's upgrade, underscoring the company's leading position in the discount retail sector.
- Significant Expansion Potential: With approximately 645 stores compared to its closest competitor's 159, Ollie's management sees growth opportunities to expand to 1,300 stores, indicating robust growth prospects.
- Changing Market Dynamics: As retail pressures increase, more clearance goods are available at discounted prices, while fewer buyers are competing, enhancing Ollie's sourcing advantages and further solidifying its market position.
See More
Jefferies Upgrades Ollie's to Buy, Highlights Competitive Edge
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) from Hold to Buy, with analyst Randal Konik noting that investors are underestimating the scale advantages that are becoming evident, indicating improved fundamentals for the company.
- Market Competitive Edge: Ollie's is currently the only closeout retailer with true national reach and distribution, boasting approximately 645 stores compared to about 159 for the next closest competitor, highlighting its dominance in mixed and clearance inventory.
- Valuation Appeal: Despite improved fundamentals, Ollie's is trading near the low end of its historical range, with a P/E discount of 6X to 7X compared to Five Below (FIVE), indicating significant investment appeal.
- Price Potential: Jefferies set a price target of $130 for Ollie's, representing over 40% upside potential, and the stock rose 1.8% to $92.95 in Thursday morning trading, reflecting market confidence in its future performance.
See More
