Ollie's Bargain Outlet falls amid sector rotation
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 28 2024
0mins
Should l Buy OLLI?
Source: Business Insider
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. experienced a significant decline of 7.64% as it crossed below its 5-day SMA, indicating a bearish trend.
The drop in Ollie's stock price appears to be a result of sector rotation, as the broader market, including the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500, showed slight gains. Investors may be reallocating their portfolios away from discount retailers like Ollie's in favor of sectors that are currently performing better.
This movement could suggest a shift in consumer spending patterns, with investors favoring growth-oriented sectors over value-oriented ones. Ollie's may need to reassess its market strategy to regain investor confidence.
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Analyst Views on OLLI
Wall Street analysts forecast OLLI stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
10 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 74.220
Low
120.00
Averages
144.46
High
162.00
Current: 74.220
Low
120.00
Averages
144.46
High
162.00
About OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory. The Company and its subsidiaries principally buys overproduced, overstocked, and closeout merchandise from manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors, brokers, and other retailers. In addition, it augments its name-brand closeout deals with private label products. It offers customers a selection of brand name products, including housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics. The Company operates over 575 stores in 31 states. The Company's retail locations are located in Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and West Virginia.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Middle East Impact: The failure of the US and Iran to reach a peace agreement led to an increase in global bond yields, with the 10-year T-note yield rising 5 basis points to 4.41%, raising concerns that sustained high energy prices could force central banks to tighten monetary policy.
- Chinese Trade Data: China's April exports rose 14.1% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations of 8.4%, while imports increased by 25.3%, indicating positive signals for global economic recovery that could benefit global markets.
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- Ollie's Expansion Momentum: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, with net sales increasing by 16.6%, and is projected to open another 75 stores in fiscal 2026, aiming for nearly $3 billion in net sales, indicating strong market demand and expansion potential.
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See More
Retailers Thrive Amid Consumer Spending Shifts
- Ollie's Expansion Momentum: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, achieving a 16.6% increase in net sales, and is projected to open another 75 stores in fiscal 2026 with expected net sales nearing $3 billion, indicating significant growth potential in the U.S. market.
- National Vision Growth Strategy: National Vision Holdings has posted 12 consecutive quarters of positive comparable store sales growth, with a 9% revenue increase and a 56% surge in adjusted operating income in fiscal 2025, successfully enhancing margins by focusing on higher-value customer segments.
- Grocery Outlet Strategic Adjustment: Despite closing 36 underperforming stores in 2026, Grocery Outlet still grew net sales by 7.3% and opened 42 new stores in 2025, demonstrating its attractiveness in a volatile supply chain environment while reallocating resources effectively.
- Market Environment Impact: Overall consumer spending has been uneven, yet retailers are adapting to consumers' more cautious spending behavior through precise product mixes and market positioning, showcasing their potential for growth even amid economic fluctuations.
See More
Tariff Volatility Impacts Retail Investing
- Ollie's Growth Amid Disruption: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, with Q4 net sales increasing 17% year-over-year to approximately $779 million, demonstrating strong performance amid tariff disruptions, as management stated, 'Tariffs are just another form of disruption, and we benefit from it.'
- Acquisition Opportunities: Ollie's acquired 63 former Big Lots locations through bankruptcy auctions, securing prime real estate in value-retail corridors, with a long-term goal of expanding store count to over 1,300 locations, nearly doubling its current footprint, showcasing its ambitious growth strategy.
- Five Below's Adaptability: Despite sourcing 60% of its products from China, Five Below achieved a 15.4% comparable sales increase and a 24.3% revenue growth to $1.73 billion in Q4 fiscal 2025, reflecting its ability to navigate tariff pressures effectively.
- Future Outlook: Five Below's management guided for fiscal 2026 sales between $5.20 billion and $5.30 billion, with adjusted EPS expected between $7.74 and $8.25, indicating strong market adaptability and growth potential despite ongoing tariff costs.
See More
Ollie's and Five Below Navigate Tariff Challenges
- Ollie's Expansion Momentum: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, with fourth-quarter net sales increasing 17% year-over-year to approximately $779 million, demonstrating significant growth opportunities amid tariff-induced market disruptions.
- Inventory Acquisition Advantage: By acquiring 63 former Big Lots locations, Ollie's secured prime retail real estate, further solidifying its position in the value retail market, with a long-term goal of expanding store count to over 1,300, nearly double its current footprint.
- Five Below's Adaptability: Despite sourcing about 60% of its products from China, Five Below successfully adjusted its product assortment post-tariff implementation in April 2025, achieving a 15.4% year-over-year surge in comparable sales and a 24.3% revenue increase to $1.73 billion in Q4, showcasing its strong market adaptability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Five Below projects fiscal 2026 sales between $5.20 billion and $5.30 billion, with adjusted EPS guidance of $7.74 to $8.25, exceeding consensus expectations despite ongoing tariff pressures, reflecting robust business resilience.
See More
US Stocks Rise Slightly, Led by Tech Gains
- Market Performance: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices both reached all-time highs, rising 0.19% and 0.29% respectively, reflecting strong corporate earnings and optimism around artificial intelligence, although gains were limited by rising oil prices and bond yields.
- Middle East Impact: The failure of the US and Iran to reach a peace agreement led to an increase in global bond yields, with the 10-year T-note yield rising 5 basis points to 4.41%, raising concerns that sustained high energy prices could force central banks to tighten monetary policy.
- Chinese Trade Data: China's April exports rose 14.1% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations of 8.4%, while imports increased by 25.3%, indicating positive signals for global economic recovery that could benefit global markets.
- Earnings Reports: As of Monday, 83% of the 450 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings exceeded expectations, with Q1 earnings projected to grow 12% year-on-year, but only 3% when excluding the technology sector, highlighting disparities in profitability across industries.
See More
Jim Cramer's Insights on Various Stocks
- Automation Company Outlook: Symbiotic is characterized as an automation and robotics firm, and despite competition from Elon Musk, it is seen as having market space; Cramer suggests investors consider buying a few shares for potential gains.
- Planet Labs Price Assessment: Cramer notes that Planet Labs' stock has risen too much, indicating that its current price is unattractive, and advises investors to be cautious and avoid buying at high levels.
- Ollie's Bargain Outlet Concerns: Cramer expresses concern over Ollie's Bargain Outlet's performance, marking its first decline; he plans to conduct further research to understand its future trajectory, demonstrating a commitment to the company.
- Bitcoin Investment Strategy: Cramer mentions that Strategy no longer needs to rely on its products but should invest directly in Bitcoin for more direct exposure, reflecting a keen interest in the cryptocurrency market.
See More
Retail Market Dynamics: Performance of Ollie's, National Vision, and Grocery Outlet
- Ollie's Expansion Momentum: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, with net sales increasing by 16.6%, and is projected to open another 75 stores in fiscal 2026, aiming for nearly $3 billion in net sales, indicating strong market demand and expansion potential.
- National Vision's Sustained Growth: National Vision Holdings has achieved positive comparable store sales growth for 12 consecutive quarters, with a 9% revenue increase and a 56% surge in adjusted operating income for fiscal 2025, demonstrating the success of its shift towards higher-value customer segments.
- Grocery Outlet's Strategic Adjustment: Despite closing 36 underperforming stores in 2026, Grocery Outlet still reported a 7.3% increase in net sales for fiscal 2025 and plans to reallocate resources, indicating its attractiveness in a challenging market environment.
- Market Environment Impact: The success of Ollie's and Grocery Outlet is closely tied to current tariffs and supply chain disruptions, with the former attracting customers through discounted closeout merchandise and the latter leveraging its flexible purchasing model to navigate market challenges, showcasing the retail sector's adaptability.
See More
Retailers Thrive Amid Consumer Spending Shifts
- Ollie's Expansion Momentum: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, achieving a 16.6% increase in net sales, and is projected to open another 75 stores in fiscal 2026 with expected net sales nearing $3 billion, indicating significant growth potential in the U.S. market.
- National Vision Growth Strategy: National Vision Holdings has posted 12 consecutive quarters of positive comparable store sales growth, with a 9% revenue increase and a 56% surge in adjusted operating income in fiscal 2025, successfully enhancing margins by focusing on higher-value customer segments.
- Grocery Outlet Strategic Adjustment: Despite closing 36 underperforming stores in 2026, Grocery Outlet still grew net sales by 7.3% and opened 42 new stores in 2025, demonstrating its attractiveness in a volatile supply chain environment while reallocating resources effectively.
- Market Environment Impact: Overall consumer spending has been uneven, yet retailers are adapting to consumers' more cautious spending behavior through precise product mixes and market positioning, showcasing their potential for growth even amid economic fluctuations.
See More
Tariff Volatility Impacts Retail Investing
- Ollie's Growth Amid Disruption: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, with Q4 net sales increasing 17% year-over-year to approximately $779 million, demonstrating strong performance amid tariff disruptions, as management stated, 'Tariffs are just another form of disruption, and we benefit from it.'
- Acquisition Opportunities: Ollie's acquired 63 former Big Lots locations through bankruptcy auctions, securing prime real estate in value-retail corridors, with a long-term goal of expanding store count to over 1,300 locations, nearly doubling its current footprint, showcasing its ambitious growth strategy.
- Five Below's Adaptability: Despite sourcing 60% of its products from China, Five Below achieved a 15.4% comparable sales increase and a 24.3% revenue growth to $1.73 billion in Q4 fiscal 2025, reflecting its ability to navigate tariff pressures effectively.
- Future Outlook: Five Below's management guided for fiscal 2026 sales between $5.20 billion and $5.30 billion, with adjusted EPS expected between $7.74 and $8.25, indicating strong market adaptability and growth potential despite ongoing tariff costs.
See More
Ollie's and Five Below Navigate Tariff Challenges
- Ollie's Expansion Momentum: Ollie's Bargain Outlet opened a record 86 new stores in fiscal 2025, with fourth-quarter net sales increasing 17% year-over-year to approximately $779 million, demonstrating significant growth opportunities amid tariff-induced market disruptions.
- Inventory Acquisition Advantage: By acquiring 63 former Big Lots locations, Ollie's secured prime retail real estate, further solidifying its position in the value retail market, with a long-term goal of expanding store count to over 1,300, nearly double its current footprint.
- Five Below's Adaptability: Despite sourcing about 60% of its products from China, Five Below successfully adjusted its product assortment post-tariff implementation in April 2025, achieving a 15.4% year-over-year surge in comparable sales and a 24.3% revenue increase to $1.73 billion in Q4, showcasing its strong market adaptability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Five Below projects fiscal 2026 sales between $5.20 billion and $5.30 billion, with adjusted EPS guidance of $7.74 to $8.25, exceeding consensus expectations despite ongoing tariff pressures, reflecting robust business resilience.
See More
