Morgan Stanley Downgrades Affirm Holdings to Equalweight
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jun 25 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
Affirm Holdings (AFRM) shares rose 3.01% today, reaching a 20-day high, as the broader market saw significant gains with the Nasdaq-100 up 2.44% and the S&P 500 up 1.63%.
Morgan Stanley downgraded Affirm Holdings from Overweight to Equalweight, indicating that its stock price now fully reflects the company's strengths. Despite this downgrade, analyst James E Faucette emphasized that Affirm remains one of the highest quality fintech assets, benefiting from BNPL market share gains. The downgrade is viewed as a valuation call, as the business's key drivers remain intact, yet the stock price has reflected GMV durability and strong credit performance.
The implications of this downgrade may lead to a reassessment of investor expectations, but Affirm's strong fundamentals and market position suggest it could continue to perform well despite the rating change.
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Analyst Views on AFRM
Wall Street analysts forecast AFRM stock price to rise
22 Analyst Rating
17 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 85.780
Low
65.00
Averages
87.72
High
107.00
Current: 85.780
Low
65.00
Averages
87.72
High
107.00
About AFRM
Affirm Holdings, Inc. provides consumers with an alternative to traditional payment options. The Company is engaged in building a payment network. Its platform comprises three core elements: point-of-sale payment solutions for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app. Its Affirm App and Website provide tailored offers from merchants based on consumers' preferences. Consumers can apply at affirm.com or via the Affirm App and, upon approval, receive a single-use virtual card to use online or in-store. Its Affirm Card allows consumers to link a bank account to pay in full, or apply to pay overtime through the Affirm App. It offers users an in-app post-purchase feature that allows them to instantly apply to convert any eligible debit transaction into an installment loan. Through the Affirm app and in partnership with Cross River Bank, it offers a savings account, with no minimum deposit requirements or fees.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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See More
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- Increased Competitive Pressure: The launch of Open USD stablecoin, backed by financial giants like Visa and BlackRock, is expected to directly capture market share from Circle, which currently holds approximately 26% of the market, second only to Tether.
- Index Removal Impact: Circle's stock was removed from five Russell indexes, leading to reduced demand from passive funds, which exacerbates the downward pressure on its stock amidst fragile cryptocurrency market sentiment.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Although Circle continues to operate one of the most trusted stablecoins globally, its competitive moat is diminishing, prompting investors to watch how the company responds to the Open USD challenge, with potential strategies including partnerships or service expansion.
See More
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- Increased Competition: While Circle's USD Coin remains the second-largest stablecoin, it faces direct threats from the Open USD stablecoin, which is backed by financial giants like Visa and BlackRock, potentially eroding Circle's market share.
- Index Removal Impact: The removal of Circle's stock from five Russell indexes has led to a decrease in passive fund demand, exacerbating the downward pressure on the stock, especially amid the current fragile sentiment in the crypto market.
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- Strong Price Surge: Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) has surged nearly 80% this quarter, on track for its strongest quarterly gain in over two years, reflecting the positive impact of strong results and recent strategic integrations on investor sentiment.
- Optimistic Market Consensus: According to Koyfin data, 22 out of 31 analysts covering Affirm rate it a 'Buy' or higher, showcasing widespread optimism about its future growth, especially following target increases from firms like Deutsche Bank and Susquehanna.
- Significant User Growth: The Affirm Card has grown to over 4.4 million active users, with the company's gross merchant value increasing by 35% year-over-year, while third-quarter revenue rose 33% to $1.04 billion, exceeding analyst expectations and further solidifying its market position.
See More
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- Financial Performance Analysis: PayPal reported Q1 net revenue of $8.4 billion, a 7% year-over-year increase, although GAAP operating income fell 3% to $1.5 billion, highlighting challenges in profitability amid post-pandemic market shifts, while total payment volume grew 11% to $464 billion, indicating ongoing activity growth on the platform.
- Management Strategy Adjustment: New CEO Enrique Lores is focused on improving operational efficiency and modernizing technology, with an aggressive buyback strategy totaling $6 billion over the past 12 months, aiming to drive profitability through streamlined operations and clear accountability, although market skepticism about execution remains.
See More
Morgan Stanley Downgrades Affirm Holdings to Equalweight
- Rating Downgrade: Morgan Stanley downgraded Affirm Holdings (AFRM) from Overweight to Equalweight and removed it as a Top Pick, indicating that its stock price now fully reflects the company's strengths.
- Stock Performance: Over the past month, Affirm (AFRM) shares have surged 18%, contrasting with the S&P 500's 1.8% decline, highlighting its relative market strength.
- Business Quality: Analyst James E Faucette emphasized that Affirm remains one of the highest quality fintech assets in their coverage, boasting a best-in-class management team and differentiated product capabilities, benefiting directly from BNPL market share gains.
- Valuation Consideration: The downgrade is viewed as a valuation call, as the business's key drivers remain intact, yet the stock price has reflected GMV durability, ongoing funding execution, and strong credit performance.
See More
