Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) shares fell by 3.05%, hitting a 20-day low, as the broader market showed signs of weakness with the Nasdaq-100 down 0.20% and the S&P 500 down 0.35%.
The decline in MPC shares is attributed to sector rotation, as the company underperformed the S&P 500 and the Oils-Energy sector over the past month. Despite an expected EPS of $4.03, which is a significant increase from last year, the projected quarterly revenue of $30.58 billion reflects an 8.62% year-over-year decline, contributing to investor caution.
This performance indicates that while there is optimism reflected in analyst forecasts, with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) and a 4.71% increase in EPS estimates, the current market conditions are leading to a shift in investor focus away from MPC.
Wall Street analysts forecast MPC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MPC is 201.50 USD with a low forecast of 184.00 USD and a high forecast of 213.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MPC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MPC is 201.50 USD with a low forecast of 184.00 USD and a high forecast of 213.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 171.790
Low
184.00
Averages
201.50
High
213.00
Current: 171.790
Low
184.00
Averages
201.50
High
213.00
Scotiabank
Paul Cheng
Outperform
downgrade
$189 -> $174
2026-01-16
Reason
Scotiabank
Paul Cheng
Price Target
$189 -> $174
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Outperform
Reason
Scotiabank analyst Paul Cheng lowered the firm's price target on Marathon Petroleum to $174 from $189 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for U.S. Integrated Oil, Refining, and Large Cap Exploration & Production, E&P, stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. Scotiabank expects earnings for the quarter to be straightforward due to the absence of major winter weather disruptions. Additionally, looking ahead, the firm expects investors to focus on whether recent market turmoil will cause changes to 2026 guidance and if any E&P companies will adopt cost reduction programs.
Piper Sandler
Neutral
downgrade
$231 -> $184
2026-01-08
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$231 -> $184
2026-01-08
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Marathon Petroleum to $184 from $231 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm says that entering 2026, while the chairs have shuffled around a bit, the song remains similar to twelve months ago - a bearish crude outlook that is likely to make it difficult for the sector to outperform the broader market. On the flip side, Piper sees the refining market as even better than 2025, driven by what it expects to be incrementally tighter S/D and crude differential tailwinds.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for MPC
Unlock Now
Mizuho
Neutral
maintain
$188 -> $196
2025-12-12
Reason
Mizuho
Price Target
$188 -> $196
2025-12-12
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Mizuho raised the firm's price target on Marathon Petroleum to $196 from $188 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the exploration and production group as part of its 2026 outlook. While sentiment for U.S. oil and gas names is negative on oil market oversupply and high gas storage, there is "underappreciated value" in the group, particularly in exploration and production on longer-term fundamentals that could start becoming realized in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho suggests a reallocation of risk toward oil E&Ps with a selective bias in gas stocks. It turned more neutral on refining.
Barclays
NULL -> Overweight
maintain
$194 -> $202
2025-11-17
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$194 -> $202
2025-11-17
maintain
NULL -> Overweight
Reason
Barclays raised the firm's price target on Marathon Petroleum to $202 from $194 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted estimates to reflect updated commodities information.
About MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is an integrated, downstream energy company. The Company’s segments include Refining & Marketing, Midstream and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent and West Coast regions of the United States. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers domestically and internationally, to buyers on the spot market, and to independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores and distributes crude oil, refined products, including renewable diesel, and other hydrocarbon-based products, principally for the Refining & Marketing segment via refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, and others. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets renewable diesel and distributes renewable products through its Midstream segment and third parties.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
