Inflation concerns impact tech stocks amid rising costs
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ONTO?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Onto Innovation Inc. saw a price drop of 5.02% as it crossed below the 5-day SMA, reflecting broader market pressures. Amid rising inflationary pressures indicated by a 0.7% increase in the Producer Price Index, tech stocks are facing challenges due to heightened operational costs, particularly from rising energy prices. This environment is causing investor caution, especially as companies like Williams-Sonoma prepare to report earnings, which could further influence market sentiment.
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Analyst Views on ONTO
Wall Street analysts forecast ONTO stock price to fall
6 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 205.070
Low
160.00
Averages
201.67
High
260.00
Current: 205.070
Low
160.00
Averages
201.67
High
260.00
About ONTO
Onto Innovation Inc. is engaged in the design, development, manufacture and support of metrology and inspection tools for the semiconductor industry. The Company’s products include Automated Metrology Systems; Integrated Metrology Systems; Silicon Wafer All-surface Inspection/Characterization; Macro Defect Inspection; Automated Defect Classification and Pattern Analysis; Yield Analysis; Opaque Film Metrology, and others. Its products are used by silicon wafer manufacturers, semiconductor integrated circuit fabricators, and advanced packaging manufacturers operating in the semiconductor market. Its products are also used for process control in several other specialty device manufacturing markets, including light-emitting diodes, vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers, micro-electromechanical systems, CMOS image sensors, silicon and compound semiconductor power devices, analog devices, RF filters, and others. It also offers three advanced product lines, including FAaST, CnCV and MBIR.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Wholesale Prices Surge, Inflation Heats Up
- PPI Increase: The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.7% in February, pushing annual wholesale inflation to 3.4%, exceeding the 0.3% consensus, indicating heightened inflationary pressures that may compel the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, thereby impacting margins for the S&P 500 and tech stocks.
- Rising Energy Costs: Brent crude prices surged 4% to $107, driven by Iranian attacks on UAE infrastructure, exacerbating stagflation concerns and potentially undermining investor confidence in tech stocks amid rising operational costs.
- Williams-Sonoma Earnings Focus: Williams-Sonoma is expected to report its Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings before market open, with investors keenly watching the impact of tariffs on margins and the company's mitigation strategies, as any deviation could significantly affect revenue and profit outcomes.
- AI-Driven Operational Efficiencies: The company has highlighted early benefits from AI in customer service and supply chain, prompting investors to look for further evidence of cost savings and productivity gains in the Q4 results.
See More
Onto Innovation Reports Record Q4 2025 Revenue Driven by AI Demand
- Record Performance: Onto Innovation achieved a record revenue of $267 million in Q4 2025, representing a 22% increase from Q3, primarily driven by a doubling of 2.5D packaging orders, indicating robust demand for AI devices.
- Strategic Purchase Agreement: The company secured a volume purchase agreement valued at over $240 million with an HBM customer, covering Dragonfly 2D and 3D metrology needs through 2027, further solidifying its position in the high-end market.
- Advanced Packaging Growth: The advanced packaging business grew over 25% sequentially, driven by surging demand for Dragonfly inspection and Iris films metrology, reflecting strong customer interest in next-generation inspection systems.
- Optimistic Outlook: Management projects advanced packaging revenue to grow over 30% in 2026, with first-quarter revenue expected to range between $275 million and $285 million, demonstrating confidence in sustained growth.
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- Earnings Overview: Onto Innovation reported a Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.26, aligning with market expectations, indicating stability in the company's profitability.
- Revenue Performance: The company's Q4 revenue reached $267 million, reflecting a 1.1% year-over-year growth; however, it fell short of analyst expectations by $0.31 million, which may impact investor confidence.
- Market Outlook: With increased AI infrastructure spending, Lam Research and KLA are entering 2026 with strong momentum, potentially increasing competitive pressure on Onto Innovation.
- Investor Attention: Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating on Onto Innovation indicates a cautious market sentiment regarding its future performance, prompting investors to closely monitor subsequent developments.
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- Performance Beat Record: Over the past two years, ONTO has surpassed EPS and revenue estimates 88% of the time, indicating a strong track record of financial performance and market confidence.
- Forecast Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen five upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates have experienced six upward revisions with no downward adjustments, suggesting analysts' optimistic outlook on the company's future performance.
- Industry Context Analysis: With increasing spending on AI infrastructure, Onto Innovation's position in the market may strengthen further, especially in competition with companies like Lam Research and KLA, reflecting a positive trend in the overall industry.
See More
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Highlighted Stocks for Investment: Analysts recommend five specific stocks that are currently seen as strong investment opportunities, suggesting that these companies are well-positioned to thrive in the evolving market landscape.
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- Strong Financials: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley saw their stocks rise by 4% and 5% respectively after reporting earnings, reassuring investors about the profitability of major financial institutions amid mixed sector results.
- Regional Bank Rebound: The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF's surge helped lift small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index hitting record highs for the tenth consecutive session, pushing year-to-date gains above 7%, indicating optimism towards small businesses.
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Wholesale Prices Surge, Inflation Heats Up
- PPI Increase: The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.7% in February, pushing annual wholesale inflation to 3.4%, exceeding the 0.3% consensus, indicating heightened inflationary pressures that may compel the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, thereby impacting margins for the S&P 500 and tech stocks.
- Rising Energy Costs: Brent crude prices surged 4% to $107, driven by Iranian attacks on UAE infrastructure, exacerbating stagflation concerns and potentially undermining investor confidence in tech stocks amid rising operational costs.
- Williams-Sonoma Earnings Focus: Williams-Sonoma is expected to report its Q4 fiscal 2025 earnings before market open, with investors keenly watching the impact of tariffs on margins and the company's mitigation strategies, as any deviation could significantly affect revenue and profit outcomes.
- AI-Driven Operational Efficiencies: The company has highlighted early benefits from AI in customer service and supply chain, prompting investors to look for further evidence of cost savings and productivity gains in the Q4 results.
See More
Onto Innovation Reports Record Q4 2025 Revenue Driven by AI Demand
- Record Performance: Onto Innovation achieved a record revenue of $267 million in Q4 2025, representing a 22% increase from Q3, primarily driven by a doubling of 2.5D packaging orders, indicating robust demand for AI devices.
- Strategic Purchase Agreement: The company secured a volume purchase agreement valued at over $240 million with an HBM customer, covering Dragonfly 2D and 3D metrology needs through 2027, further solidifying its position in the high-end market.
- Advanced Packaging Growth: The advanced packaging business grew over 25% sequentially, driven by surging demand for Dragonfly inspection and Iris films metrology, reflecting strong customer interest in next-generation inspection systems.
- Optimistic Outlook: Management projects advanced packaging revenue to grow over 30% in 2026, with first-quarter revenue expected to range between $275 million and $285 million, demonstrating confidence in sustained growth.
See More
Onto Innovation Reports Q4 Earnings Results
- Earnings Overview: Onto Innovation reported a Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.26, aligning with market expectations, indicating stability in the company's profitability.
- Revenue Performance: The company's Q4 revenue reached $267 million, reflecting a 1.1% year-over-year growth; however, it fell short of analyst expectations by $0.31 million, which may impact investor confidence.
- Market Outlook: With increased AI infrastructure spending, Lam Research and KLA are entering 2026 with strong momentum, potentially increasing competitive pressure on Onto Innovation.
- Investor Attention: Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating on Onto Innovation indicates a cautious market sentiment regarding its future performance, prompting investors to closely monitor subsequent developments.
See More
Onto Innovation to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 19
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Onto Innovation (ONTO) is set to announce its Q4 2023 earnings on February 19 after market close, with consensus EPS estimate at $1.28, reflecting a 15.2% year-over-year decline, while revenue is expected to reach $267.24 million, marking a 1.2% increase year-over-year.
- Performance Beat Record: Over the past two years, ONTO has surpassed EPS and revenue estimates 88% of the time, indicating a strong track record of financial performance and market confidence.
- Forecast Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen five upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates have experienced six upward revisions with no downward adjustments, suggesting analysts' optimistic outlook on the company's future performance.
- Industry Context Analysis: With increasing spending on AI infrastructure, Onto Innovation's position in the market may strengthen further, especially in competition with companies like Lam Research and KLA, reflecting a positive trend in the overall industry.
See More
Is AI Truly Displacing Software? A Wall Street Expert Explains Why Not.
Current State of Software Market: The software market, once a favorite for growth, is now facing challenges, with concerns about overvaluation and the sustainability of major platforms despite the ongoing AI boom.
Investment Caution: Marc Chaikin advises investors to be cautious about buying into software stocks too early, emphasizing the need for market stabilization and thorough analysis before identifying potential winners and losers.
Focus on AI and Infrastructure: The AI boom is still thriving, driven by data centers and chip reliability, which are crucial for supporting AI technologies, while the software sector is experiencing a shift in leadership and market dynamics.
Highlighted Stocks for Investment: Analysts recommend five specific stocks that are currently seen as strong investment opportunities, suggesting that these companies are well-positioned to thrive in the evolving market landscape.
See More
U.S. Stocks Rally as Strong Earnings Lift Nasdaq 1.2%
- Semiconductor Surge: Taiwan Semiconductor's blockbuster earnings reignited enthusiasm, leading AMD and ASML shares to rise about 6% each, reflecting a robust recovery in the AI supply chain and boosting market confidence.
- Strong Financials: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley saw their stocks rise by 4% and 5% respectively after reporting earnings, reassuring investors about the profitability of major financial institutions amid mixed sector results.
- Regional Bank Rebound: The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF's surge helped lift small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index hitting record highs for the tenth consecutive session, pushing year-to-date gains above 7%, indicating optimism towards small businesses.
- Positive Economic Data: Initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, significantly below the forecast of 215,000, showcasing the resilience of the U.S. labor market and further bolstering investor confidence in economic recovery.
See More
