Hedgeye Predicts 75% Downside for Boot Barn Amid Earnings Concerns
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 26 2026
0mins
Should l Buy BOOT?
Source: seekingalpha
Boot Barn Holdings Inc. saw a decline of 3.09% as it hit a 20-day low, reflecting investor concerns.
Hedgeye analyst Brian McGough issued a short call on Boot Barn, predicting a potential 75% downside due to overly optimistic market assumptions about its expansion plans. The analyst highlighted that the market is mis-modeling earnings potential, projecting sustainable EPS at around $4, significantly lower than the Street's expectations exceeding $8. This has led to increased skepticism about the company's growth trajectory, as evidenced by a short interest of 11.8%.
The implications of this outlook suggest that Boot Barn may face significant challenges in meeting market expectations, which could further pressure its stock price in the near term.
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Analyst Views on BOOT
Wall Street analysts forecast BOOT stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 173.150
Low
195.00
Averages
238.25
High
282.00
Current: 173.150
Low
195.00
Averages
238.25
High
282.00
About BOOT
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. is a lifestyle retailer of western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women and children. The Company carries an assortment of denim, western shirts, cowboy hats, belts and belt buckles, western-style jewelry, and accessories. Its western assortment includes various brands such as Ariat, Cinch, Cody James, Corral, Dan Post, Durango, El Dorado, Idyllwind, Justin, Laredo, Levi’s, Miss Me, Montana Silversmiths, Moonshine Spirit, Resistol, Shyanne, Stetson, Tony Lama, Twisted X, and Wrangler. Its work assortment includes rugged footwear, outerwear, overalls, denim and shirts, including safety-toe boots and flame-resistant and high-visibility clothing. Its e-commerce Websites consist primarily of bootbarn.com, sheplers.com, countryoutfitter.com, and third-party marketplaces, as well as the Boot Barn app. The Company operates approximately 475 stores in 49 states.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Ranger Investment Management Sells Boot Barn Shares
- Share Reduction Details: Ranger Investment Management sold 99,800 shares of Boot Barn Holdings in Q4 2025, with an estimated transaction size of $18.62 million, indicating a potential decline in confidence in the stock.
- Decline in Position Value: The fund's quarter-end position value in Boot Barn decreased by $15.63 million, reflecting the dual impact of trading activity and stock price changes, suggesting a possible shift in market expectations for the company.
- Market Performance Analysis: Despite Boot Barn's stock price rising over 41% in the past year, Ranger's reduction has left its holding at just 1% of 13F assets, indicating a preference for other growth-oriented investments.
- Future Outlook: Boot Barn reported a 16% quarterly revenue growth, projecting full-year sales of up to $2.25 billion; however, Ranger's sell-off may reflect a cautious stance regarding current valuation risks.
See More
Ranger Investment Management Sells Boot Barn Shares
- Share Reduction Transaction: Ranger Investment Management disclosed a sale of 99,800 shares of Boot Barn Holdings in Q4 2025, valued at approximately $18.62 million, indicating a strategic response to market fluctuations.
- Decline in Position Value: Following the sale, Ranger's position in Boot Barn decreased by $15.63 million, reflecting the impact of market price movements on investor confidence and portfolio strategy.
- Strong Company Performance: Boot Barn reported a 16% revenue growth in the latest quarter, reaching $705.6 million, with a net income of $85.8 million, showcasing robust performance and growth potential in the retail sector.
- Positive Future Outlook: Despite Boot Barn's market capitalization of $5.72 billion and a 41% year-over-year stock price increase, the company plans to open 70 new stores this fiscal year, demonstrating confidence in its expansion strategy and market position.
See More
Eddie Bauer Files for Voluntary Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection Amid Operational Pressures
- Bankruptcy Filing: Eddie Bauer LLC announced on Monday that it has filed for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, primarily due to tariff uncertainty and mounting operational pressures, highlighting the severe financial challenges the company faces.
- Restructuring Agreement: The company has entered into a Restructuring Support Agreement with its secured lenders and commenced voluntary bankruptcy proceedings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of New Jersey, aiming to maintain operations and seek a buyer through restructuring.
- Retail Operations Continuity: Despite entering bankruptcy, Eddie Bauer's stores in the U.S. and Canada will remain open for liquidation sales, maximizing asset value while searching for a going-concern buyer, indicating a strategic approach to asset management during financial distress.
- E-commerce Business Stability: Eddie Bauer's e-commerce and wholesale operations, which transitioned to Outdoor 5, LLC in January, remain unaffected by the bankruptcy process, suggesting that the company has managed to stabilize part of its business during this transition.
See More
Bank of America Names Five Stocks with Upside Potential
- Strong Performance by CACI: CACI's earnings report showcased robust margin expansion and free cash flow generation despite a sluggish award environment, prompting analysts to raise their price target from $670 to $750, reflecting confidence in its continued dominance.
- Growth in Real Estate Investment Trust: Equity LifeStyle Properties reported strong business performance in January, leading analysts to upgrade the stock from neutral to buy, as its age-restricted mobile home portfolio benefits from demographic trends, with steady rent increases contributing to an 8% rise in stock price this year.
- Turning Point for Teledyne: Teledyne exceeded revenue expectations in January, with analysts noting that short-cycle recovery will drive margin expansion, while strong growth in the drone market is anticipated, resulting in a 27% increase in stock price since the beginning of the year.
- Boot Barn's Sustained Growth: Boot Barn continues to show consistent sales momentum, with analysts reiterating a buy rating, arguing that its 21x P/E ratio does not fully reflect its best-in-class growth profile, as third-quarter results aligned with prior expectations, indicating strong market performance.
See More
Wall Street's Latest Rating Changes Overview
- Amazon Downgrade: DA Davidson downgraded Amazon from Buy to Neutral, citing concerns that Amazon Web Services (AWS) is losing market share amid competition from Microsoft and Google, indicating a potential need for increased investment to regain its leading position in the cloud computing sector.
- Merit Medical Initiation: BTIG initiated coverage on Merit Medical with a Buy rating, highlighting its comprehensive product portfolio used across various interventional procedures, which underscores the company's high-quality positioning and growth potential in the medical device market.
- JBS Buy Rating: UBS initiated coverage on Brazilian meat company JBS with a Buy rating and a price target of $19.5 per share, implying a 23% upside, reflecting market confidence in its re-rating and potential stock price appreciation.
- Vistra Upgrade: Goldman Sachs upgraded Vistra from Neutral to Buy, projecting a potential EBITDA increase of 3-9% by 2028, indicating investor optimism regarding its future profitability and growth prospects in the nuclear energy sector.
See More
Boot Barn Reports Strong Q3 Earnings and Raises Guidance
- Significant Revenue Growth: Boot Barn reported a 16% year-over-year revenue increase to $706 million in Q3, driven by new store openings and a 5.7% same-store sales growth, reflecting strong performance across major merchandise categories and geographies.
- New Store Opening Plans: The company plans to open 15 new stores in Q4, targeting a total of 70 new stores for the fiscal year, with new stores expected to generate approximately $3.2 million in annual sales in their first year, achieving payback in less than two years, thereby strengthening market position.
- E-commerce Sales Growth: Online same-store sales grew by 19.6%, with the successful launch of exclusive brand sites attracting a significant number of new customers, indicating success in the omnichannel strategy and enhancing customer base and market share.
- Margin Improvement: The gross profit margin increased to 39.9%, up 60 basis points year-over-year, and despite pressures from freight and shrink costs, the company plans to raise prices on some exclusive brand products in Q4 to support margin expansion.
See More
Ranger Investment Management Sells Boot Barn Shares
- Share Reduction Details: Ranger Investment Management sold 99,800 shares of Boot Barn Holdings in Q4 2025, with an estimated transaction size of $18.62 million, indicating a potential decline in confidence in the stock.
- Decline in Position Value: The fund's quarter-end position value in Boot Barn decreased by $15.63 million, reflecting the dual impact of trading activity and stock price changes, suggesting a possible shift in market expectations for the company.
- Market Performance Analysis: Despite Boot Barn's stock price rising over 41% in the past year, Ranger's reduction has left its holding at just 1% of 13F assets, indicating a preference for other growth-oriented investments.
- Future Outlook: Boot Barn reported a 16% quarterly revenue growth, projecting full-year sales of up to $2.25 billion; however, Ranger's sell-off may reflect a cautious stance regarding current valuation risks.
See More
Ranger Investment Management Sells Boot Barn Shares
- Share Reduction Transaction: Ranger Investment Management disclosed a sale of 99,800 shares of Boot Barn Holdings in Q4 2025, valued at approximately $18.62 million, indicating a strategic response to market fluctuations.
- Decline in Position Value: Following the sale, Ranger's position in Boot Barn decreased by $15.63 million, reflecting the impact of market price movements on investor confidence and portfolio strategy.
- Strong Company Performance: Boot Barn reported a 16% revenue growth in the latest quarter, reaching $705.6 million, with a net income of $85.8 million, showcasing robust performance and growth potential in the retail sector.
- Positive Future Outlook: Despite Boot Barn's market capitalization of $5.72 billion and a 41% year-over-year stock price increase, the company plans to open 70 new stores this fiscal year, demonstrating confidence in its expansion strategy and market position.
See More
Eddie Bauer Files for Voluntary Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection Amid Operational Pressures
- Bankruptcy Filing: Eddie Bauer LLC announced on Monday that it has filed for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, primarily due to tariff uncertainty and mounting operational pressures, highlighting the severe financial challenges the company faces.
- Restructuring Agreement: The company has entered into a Restructuring Support Agreement with its secured lenders and commenced voluntary bankruptcy proceedings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of New Jersey, aiming to maintain operations and seek a buyer through restructuring.
- Retail Operations Continuity: Despite entering bankruptcy, Eddie Bauer's stores in the U.S. and Canada will remain open for liquidation sales, maximizing asset value while searching for a going-concern buyer, indicating a strategic approach to asset management during financial distress.
- E-commerce Business Stability: Eddie Bauer's e-commerce and wholesale operations, which transitioned to Outdoor 5, LLC in January, remain unaffected by the bankruptcy process, suggesting that the company has managed to stabilize part of its business during this transition.
See More
Bank of America Names Five Stocks with Upside Potential
- Strong Performance by CACI: CACI's earnings report showcased robust margin expansion and free cash flow generation despite a sluggish award environment, prompting analysts to raise their price target from $670 to $750, reflecting confidence in its continued dominance.
- Growth in Real Estate Investment Trust: Equity LifeStyle Properties reported strong business performance in January, leading analysts to upgrade the stock from neutral to buy, as its age-restricted mobile home portfolio benefits from demographic trends, with steady rent increases contributing to an 8% rise in stock price this year.
- Turning Point for Teledyne: Teledyne exceeded revenue expectations in January, with analysts noting that short-cycle recovery will drive margin expansion, while strong growth in the drone market is anticipated, resulting in a 27% increase in stock price since the beginning of the year.
- Boot Barn's Sustained Growth: Boot Barn continues to show consistent sales momentum, with analysts reiterating a buy rating, arguing that its 21x P/E ratio does not fully reflect its best-in-class growth profile, as third-quarter results aligned with prior expectations, indicating strong market performance.
See More
Wall Street's Latest Rating Changes Overview
- Amazon Downgrade: DA Davidson downgraded Amazon from Buy to Neutral, citing concerns that Amazon Web Services (AWS) is losing market share amid competition from Microsoft and Google, indicating a potential need for increased investment to regain its leading position in the cloud computing sector.
- Merit Medical Initiation: BTIG initiated coverage on Merit Medical with a Buy rating, highlighting its comprehensive product portfolio used across various interventional procedures, which underscores the company's high-quality positioning and growth potential in the medical device market.
- JBS Buy Rating: UBS initiated coverage on Brazilian meat company JBS with a Buy rating and a price target of $19.5 per share, implying a 23% upside, reflecting market confidence in its re-rating and potential stock price appreciation.
- Vistra Upgrade: Goldman Sachs upgraded Vistra from Neutral to Buy, projecting a potential EBITDA increase of 3-9% by 2028, indicating investor optimism regarding its future profitability and growth prospects in the nuclear energy sector.
See More
Boot Barn Reports Strong Q3 Earnings and Raises Guidance
- Significant Revenue Growth: Boot Barn reported a 16% year-over-year revenue increase to $706 million in Q3, driven by new store openings and a 5.7% same-store sales growth, reflecting strong performance across major merchandise categories and geographies.
- New Store Opening Plans: The company plans to open 15 new stores in Q4, targeting a total of 70 new stores for the fiscal year, with new stores expected to generate approximately $3.2 million in annual sales in their first year, achieving payback in less than two years, thereby strengthening market position.
- E-commerce Sales Growth: Online same-store sales grew by 19.6%, with the successful launch of exclusive brand sites attracting a significant number of new customers, indicating success in the omnichannel strategy and enhancing customer base and market share.
- Margin Improvement: The gross profit margin increased to 39.9%, up 60 basis points year-over-year, and despite pressures from freight and shrink costs, the company plans to raise prices on some exclusive brand products in Q4 to support margin expansion.
See More
