Boot Barn Holdings Inc. saw a decline of 3.09% as it hit a 20-day low, reflecting investor concerns.
Hedgeye analyst Brian McGough issued a short call on Boot Barn, predicting a potential 75% downside due to overly optimistic market assumptions about its expansion plans. The analyst highlighted that the market is mis-modeling earnings potential, projecting sustainable EPS at around $4, significantly lower than the Street's expectations exceeding $8. This has led to increased skepticism about the company's growth trajectory, as evidenced by a short interest of 11.8%.
The implications of this outlook suggest that Boot Barn may face significant challenges in meeting market expectations, which could further pressure its stock price in the near term.
Wall Street analysts forecast BOOT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BOOT is 232.28 USD with a low forecast of 195.00 USD and a high forecast of 282.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BOOT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BOOT is 232.28 USD with a low forecast of 195.00 USD and a high forecast of 282.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 172.290
Low
195.00
Averages
232.28
High
282.00
Current: 172.290
Low
195.00
Averages
232.28
High
282.00
Citi
Buy
maintain
$225 -> $230
2026-01-16
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$225 -> $230
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
maintain
Buy
Reason
Citi raised the firm's price target on Boot Barn to $230 from $225 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm views the shares as attractive following the pullback on the fiscal Q3 preannouncement. After speaking with management, Citi believes Boot Barn is seeing strength in denim and an inflection in work boots.
Piper Sandler
Overweight
maintain
$220 -> $229
2026-01-16
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$220 -> $229
2026-01-16
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Boot Barn to $229 from $220 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes continues to demonstrate some of the strongest fundamentals in its coverage space resulting in EPS growth of over 20%. The company is showing an ability to lap tough compares without difficulty, and it has a variety of intriguing drivers for both sales and gross margin, Piper adds. Big picture, Boot appears well-positioned as its Country Lifestyle customer segment becomes more mainstream.
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UBS
NULL -> Buy
maintain
$248 -> $265
2026-01-08
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$248 -> $265
2026-01-08
maintain
NULL -> Buy
Reason
UBS raised the firm's price target on Boot Barn to $265 from $248 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. CY26 EPS upside for Softline stocks is expected to be driven by a stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer and an underappreciated "Health & Wellness 2.0" trend, with estimates at least 4% above consensus for 16 names, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Earnings momentum is projected to extend into CY27, with EPS forecasts averaging about 5% above consensus, the firm adds.
Goldman Sachs
Jon Keypour
Buy
initiated
$225
2025-12-11
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Jon Keypour
Price Target
$225
2025-12-11
initiated
Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs analyst Jon Keypour initiated coverage of Boot Barn with a Buy rating and $225 price target. The firm rolled out coverage of the apparel retail sector with a preference for store growth and pricing power. Apparel prices have lagged inflation, providing an opportunity for a "catch-up" to offset tariff pressures for retailers with a value perception, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Goldman says that in an environment where the middle-to-high income consumer remains resilient, it prefers newer concepts with larger store growth opportunities.
About BOOT
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. is a lifestyle retailer of western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women and children. The Company carries an assortment of denim, western shirts, cowboy hats, belts and belt buckles, western-style jewelry, and accessories. Its western assortment includes various brands such as Ariat, Cinch, Cody James, Corral, Dan Post, Durango, El Dorado, Idyllwind, Justin, Laredo, Levi’s, Miss Me, Montana Silversmiths, Moonshine Spirit, Resistol, Shyanne, Stetson, Tony Lama, Twisted X, and Wrangler. Its work assortment includes rugged footwear, outerwear, overalls, denim and shirts, including safety-toe boots and flame-resistant and high-visibility clothing. Its e-commerce Websites consist primarily of bootbarn.com, sheplers.com, countryoutfitter.com, and third-party marketplaces, as well as the Boot Barn app. The Company operates approximately 475 stores in 49 states.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
