Goldman Sachs Upgrades Par Pacific to Buy Amid Strong Earnings Outlook
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 28 2025
0mins
Should l Buy PARR?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Par Pacific Holdings Inc. experienced a significant price drop of 14.04%, hitting a 20-day low.
Goldman Sachs upgraded Par Pacific from Neutral to Buy with a price target of $77, driven by strong earnings expectations in Hawaii and undervalued mainland refiners. This upgrade reflects robust fundamentals and positive estimate revisions, indicating a constructive outlook for small-to-midcap refiners.
The upgrade from Goldman Sachs is expected to enhance investor confidence in Par Pacific, particularly as the company prepares for its upcoming Q1 2026 earnings release, which will provide further insights into its operational performance.
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Analyst Views on PARR
Wall Street analysts forecast PARR stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 69.200
Low
39.00
Averages
45.71
High
57.00
Current: 69.200
Low
39.00
Averages
45.71
High
57.00
About PARR
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy company, which provides both renewable and conventional fuels to the western United States. The Company owns and operates 219,000 barrels per day of combined refining capacity across three locations and an energy infrastructure network, including 13 million barrels of storage, and marine, rail, rack and pipeline assets. The Company’s Refining segment owns and operates four refineries with total operating crude oil throughput capacity of 219 thousand barrels per day (Mbpd). Retail segment operates fuel retail outlets in Hawaii, Washington and Idaho. It operates convenience stores and fuel retail sites under Hele and nomnom brands, 76 branded fuel retail sites and other sites operated by third parties that sell gasoline, diesel, and retail merchandise, such as soft drinks, prepared foods, and other sundries. The Logistics segment operates a multi-modal logistics network spanning the Pacific, the Northwest, and the Rocky Mountain regions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Par Pacific Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Financial Performance: In Q1, adjusted EBITDA reached $91 million with adjusted net income of $0.78 per share, maintaining stability despite the lag effect from rapidly rising crude and distillate prices in Hawaii and a planned outage in Washington.
- Market Margin Shift: The April Singapore 3-1-2 index averaged over $72 per barrel, significantly above the 2025 average of $16 per barrel, indicating the company's ability to capture improved market conditions without crack spread hedges in place.
- Capital Returns and Liquidity: The company repurchased $28 million in stock at an average price of $38 per share during the quarter, and with a total liquidity position of $938 million, it enhances financial flexibility to support strategic objectives and opportunistic share repurchase framework.
- Renewable Energy Progress: The successful start-up of the Hawaii Renewables Unit marks a significant milestone, with modest sales volumes and earnings contribution expected in Q2, but a larger ramp-up anticipated in the second half of the year, demonstrating a long-term commitment to the renewable energy market.
See More
Par Pacific Shares Drop 11% Despite Improved Profitability
- Earnings Miss: Par Pacific reported adjusted earnings of $0.78 per share for Q1, falling short of Wall Street's $0.99 estimate, despite net income rising to $54.5 million, indicating improved profitability but disappointing investors and leading to an 11% stock drop.
- Revenue In Line: The company's revenue of approximately $1.82 billion was roughly in line with expectations of $1.78 billion, reflecting stable performance in its refining operations, yet the earnings miss dampened investor sentiment significantly.
- Operational Headwinds: A significant 'price lag' effect in Hawaii reduced adjusted gross margins by about $125.5 million, or $15.52 per barrel, highlighting constraints on profitability in a rising price environment and overshadowing operational strengths.
- Retail Segment Weakness: Operating income in the retail segment fell to $13 million from $16 million a year earlier, with declines in fuel volumes and in-store sales, raising concerns about the company's near-term liquidity trends and overall operational execution.
See More
Par Pacific to Release Q1 2026 Earnings on May 5
- Earnings Release Schedule: Par Pacific Holdings will announce its Q1 2026 earnings after the NYSE closes on May 5, 2026, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Investor Conference Call: The subsequent investor conference call is scheduled for May 6, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Central Time, which is expected to attract significant attention from analysts and investors, enhancing market understanding of the company's performance.
- Financial Transparency: This earnings release will provide investors with the latest data on Par Pacific's operational performance in both renewable and conventional fuels, aiding the market in assessing its competitiveness in the Western U.S. energy sector.
- Company Background: Par Pacific operates a refining capacity of 219,000 bpd across Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and the Rockies, along with a diverse energy infrastructure that includes the Hele retail brand and the “nomnom” convenience store chain, showcasing its comprehensive strength in the energy industry.
See More
Goldman Sachs Upgrades Par Pacific and Delek Ratings
- Rating Upgrade: Goldman Sachs upgraded Par Pacific (PARR) from Neutral to Buy with a price target of $77, driven by strong earnings expectations in Hawaii and undervalued mainland refiners, indicating robust fundamentals and positive estimate revisions.
- Market Outlook: Analysts highlighted that tighter refining supply-demand fundamentals and the scarcity of refined products should enhance earnings power for U.S. refiners, suggesting a constructive outlook for small-to-midcap refiners.
- Delek US Performance: Delek US Holdings (DK) was also upgraded to Buy with a target price of $55, based on forecasts for stronger free cash flow generation supported by self-help initiatives, including cost-reduction efforts and improved marketing strategies.
- CVR Energy and PBF Energy: Goldman maintained a Sell rating on CVR Energy (CVI) due to a focus on debt paydown, while keeping a Neutral rating on PBF Energy (PBF) as they await full recovery from the 2025 fire at the Martinez refinery.
See More
Wall Street's Latest Rating Changes Analysis
- MSG Sports Upgrade: Seaport upgraded Madison Square Garden Sports from neutral to buy, citing a significant 57.5% trading discount versus intrinsic value, suggesting a potential appreciation ahead of the 2025-26 season, particularly with plans to spin off the Knicks and Rangers into standalone entities.
- ServiceNow Downgrade: UBS downgraded ServiceNow from buy to neutral due to weakened confidence in the software sector, projecting a decline in 2026 free cash flow to 15x, reflecting increased budget pressures on non-AI applications that could impact future performance.
- Shake Shack Sales Growth: Mizuho upgraded Shake Shack from neutral to outperform, anticipating upside in same-store sales for Q1, driven by strong demand and improved restaurant-level margins, indicating robust market momentum and growth potential.
- Nvidia Strong Performance: Raymond James reiterated a strong buy rating on Nvidia, based on favorable trends in its Asia supply chain, with suppliers receiving increased forecasts during the quarter, reinforcing Nvidia's position as a market leader.
See More
Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing Stocks Surge
- Sector Performance: The oil and gas refining and marketing sector rose approximately 3.4%, indicating a renewed market confidence likely driven by rising oil prices and recovering demand.
- Delek US Holdings: Delek US Holdings saw its stock price increase by about 8.2%, leading the sector, reflecting investor optimism regarding its future profitability, potentially linked to recent business expansions and market strategies.
- Par Pacific Holdings: Par Pacific Holdings' stock rose approximately 7%, showcasing market recognition of its operational efficiency and profitability, likely benefiting from the overall industry recovery and internal optimization measures.
- Market Trend Analysis: As oil and gas demand rebounds, investor interest in the refining and marketing sector is increasing, suggesting that this industry may continue to receive support from capital inflows in the coming months.
See More
Par Pacific Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Financial Performance: In Q1, adjusted EBITDA reached $91 million with adjusted net income of $0.78 per share, maintaining stability despite the lag effect from rapidly rising crude and distillate prices in Hawaii and a planned outage in Washington.
- Market Margin Shift: The April Singapore 3-1-2 index averaged over $72 per barrel, significantly above the 2025 average of $16 per barrel, indicating the company's ability to capture improved market conditions without crack spread hedges in place.
- Capital Returns and Liquidity: The company repurchased $28 million in stock at an average price of $38 per share during the quarter, and with a total liquidity position of $938 million, it enhances financial flexibility to support strategic objectives and opportunistic share repurchase framework.
- Renewable Energy Progress: The successful start-up of the Hawaii Renewables Unit marks a significant milestone, with modest sales volumes and earnings contribution expected in Q2, but a larger ramp-up anticipated in the second half of the year, demonstrating a long-term commitment to the renewable energy market.
See More
Par Pacific Shares Drop 11% Despite Improved Profitability
- Earnings Miss: Par Pacific reported adjusted earnings of $0.78 per share for Q1, falling short of Wall Street's $0.99 estimate, despite net income rising to $54.5 million, indicating improved profitability but disappointing investors and leading to an 11% stock drop.
- Revenue In Line: The company's revenue of approximately $1.82 billion was roughly in line with expectations of $1.78 billion, reflecting stable performance in its refining operations, yet the earnings miss dampened investor sentiment significantly.
- Operational Headwinds: A significant 'price lag' effect in Hawaii reduced adjusted gross margins by about $125.5 million, or $15.52 per barrel, highlighting constraints on profitability in a rising price environment and overshadowing operational strengths.
- Retail Segment Weakness: Operating income in the retail segment fell to $13 million from $16 million a year earlier, with declines in fuel volumes and in-store sales, raising concerns about the company's near-term liquidity trends and overall operational execution.
See More
Par Pacific to Release Q1 2026 Earnings on May 5
- Earnings Release Schedule: Par Pacific Holdings will announce its Q1 2026 earnings after the NYSE closes on May 5, 2026, reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Investor Conference Call: The subsequent investor conference call is scheduled for May 6, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Central Time, which is expected to attract significant attention from analysts and investors, enhancing market understanding of the company's performance.
- Financial Transparency: This earnings release will provide investors with the latest data on Par Pacific's operational performance in both renewable and conventional fuels, aiding the market in assessing its competitiveness in the Western U.S. energy sector.
- Company Background: Par Pacific operates a refining capacity of 219,000 bpd across Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and the Rockies, along with a diverse energy infrastructure that includes the Hele retail brand and the “nomnom” convenience store chain, showcasing its comprehensive strength in the energy industry.
See More
Goldman Sachs Upgrades Par Pacific and Delek Ratings
- Rating Upgrade: Goldman Sachs upgraded Par Pacific (PARR) from Neutral to Buy with a price target of $77, driven by strong earnings expectations in Hawaii and undervalued mainland refiners, indicating robust fundamentals and positive estimate revisions.
- Market Outlook: Analysts highlighted that tighter refining supply-demand fundamentals and the scarcity of refined products should enhance earnings power for U.S. refiners, suggesting a constructive outlook for small-to-midcap refiners.
- Delek US Performance: Delek US Holdings (DK) was also upgraded to Buy with a target price of $55, based on forecasts for stronger free cash flow generation supported by self-help initiatives, including cost-reduction efforts and improved marketing strategies.
- CVR Energy and PBF Energy: Goldman maintained a Sell rating on CVR Energy (CVI) due to a focus on debt paydown, while keeping a Neutral rating on PBF Energy (PBF) as they await full recovery from the 2025 fire at the Martinez refinery.
See More
Wall Street's Latest Rating Changes Analysis
- MSG Sports Upgrade: Seaport upgraded Madison Square Garden Sports from neutral to buy, citing a significant 57.5% trading discount versus intrinsic value, suggesting a potential appreciation ahead of the 2025-26 season, particularly with plans to spin off the Knicks and Rangers into standalone entities.
- ServiceNow Downgrade: UBS downgraded ServiceNow from buy to neutral due to weakened confidence in the software sector, projecting a decline in 2026 free cash flow to 15x, reflecting increased budget pressures on non-AI applications that could impact future performance.
- Shake Shack Sales Growth: Mizuho upgraded Shake Shack from neutral to outperform, anticipating upside in same-store sales for Q1, driven by strong demand and improved restaurant-level margins, indicating robust market momentum and growth potential.
- Nvidia Strong Performance: Raymond James reiterated a strong buy rating on Nvidia, based on favorable trends in its Asia supply chain, with suppliers receiving increased forecasts during the quarter, reinforcing Nvidia's position as a market leader.
See More
Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing Stocks Surge
- Sector Performance: The oil and gas refining and marketing sector rose approximately 3.4%, indicating a renewed market confidence likely driven by rising oil prices and recovering demand.
- Delek US Holdings: Delek US Holdings saw its stock price increase by about 8.2%, leading the sector, reflecting investor optimism regarding its future profitability, potentially linked to recent business expansions and market strategies.
- Par Pacific Holdings: Par Pacific Holdings' stock rose approximately 7%, showcasing market recognition of its operational efficiency and profitability, likely benefiting from the overall industry recovery and internal optimization measures.
- Market Trend Analysis: As oil and gas demand rebounds, investor interest in the refining and marketing sector is increasing, suggesting that this industry may continue to receive support from capital inflows in the coming months.
See More
