GEO Group Inc's stock fell 11.08% as it crossed below the 5-day SMA, reflecting a challenging trading session.
The company was recently recognized as one of the top 10 undervalued industrial stocks, with Noble Financial maintaining a Buy rating and a price target of $35, indicating a potential upside of 92%. Additionally, GEO secured a contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to provide skip tracing services, expected to generate approximately $121 million in revenue, which represents about 4.8% of its trailing twelve-month revenue of $2.53 billion. This contract, along with the company's strong market positioning, highlights its potential for future growth.
Despite the stock's decline, the recognition from analysts and the new contract with ICE could provide a foundation for recovery, as the company continues to expand its service offerings and strengthen its financial position.
Wall Street analysts forecast GEO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEO is 34.00 USD with a low forecast of 30.00 USD and a high forecast of 37.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GEO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEO is 34.00 USD with a low forecast of 30.00 USD and a high forecast of 37.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 16.050
Low
30.00
Averages
34.00
High
37.00
Current: 16.050
Low
30.00
Averages
34.00
High
37.00
JonesResearch
Buy
downgrade
$50 -> $37
2025-11-07
Reason
JonesResearch
Price Target
$50 -> $37
AI Analysis
2025-11-07
downgrade
Buy
Reason
JonesResearch lowered the firm's price target on Geo Group to $37 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The pathway toward $3B+ in annualized revenue from upcoming contracts and monitoring has begun tot show for FY26, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm revised its estimates downward, however, to account for slower-than-expected growth, but noted that it remains bullish on all segments of GEO, in particular the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program opportunity.
JonesResearch
Jason Weaver
Buy
maintain
$50 -> $45
2025-08-07
Reason
JonesResearch
Jason Weaver
Price Target
$50 -> $45
2025-08-07
maintain
Buy
Reason
JonesResearch analyst Jason Weaver lowered the firm's price target on Geo Group to $45 from $50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the Q2 report the Q2 beat. The firm cites alternatives to detention growth for the target cut. Geo's Intensive Supervision Appearance Program commentary disappointed, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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Texas Capital
Raj Sharma
Buy
initiated
$30
2025-06-30
Reason
Texas Capital
Raj Sharma
Price Target
$30
2025-06-30
initiated
Buy
Reason
Texas Capital analyst Raj Sharma initiated coverage of Geo Group with a Buy rating and $30 price target.
Texas Capital
NULL -> Buy
initiated
$30
2025-06-30
Reason
Texas Capital
Price Target
$30
2025-06-30
initiated
NULL -> Buy
Reason
Texas Capital initiated coverage of Geo Group with a Buy rating and $30 price target. The company is the largest private prison and immigrant monitoring company in the U.S., and the Trump election victory has made it even more certain that the Administration will carry through on its commitment to increase funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement monitoring, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With substantial interest in expanding monitoring use in immigration enforcement, Geo faces a huge opportunity to increase revenues and expand margins, the firm added.
About GEO
The GEO Group, Inc. is a diversified government service provider. The Company specializes in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. The Company’s U.S. Secure Services segment primarily encompasses the United Sates-based secure services business. Its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment represents technology and services provided to adults for monitoring services for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. Its Reentry Services segment represents evidence-based supervision and treatment programs provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs. Its International Services segment primarily consists of secure services operations in South Africa and Australia.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
