Choice Hotels misses Q1 EPS estimates but beats revenue expectations
Choice Hotels International Inc's stock fell 12.81% as it crossed below the 5-day SMA amid a broader market decline, with the Nasdaq-100 down 0.47% and the S&P 500 down 0.02%.
The company's Q1 earnings report revealed a non-GAAP EPS of $1.07, missing estimates by $0.25, although revenue reached $340.6 million, beating expectations. The net income was $20.3 million, and the adjusted EBITDA was $125.7 million, indicating effective cost control. Additionally, the U.S. royalty rate increased by 11 basis points to 5.22%, reflecting enhanced brand value and market positioning, which may support future revenue growth.
Despite the earnings miss, the company projects a net income for 2026 between $265 million and $275 million, showing cautious optimism from management regarding future growth, although the overall market sentiment remains neutral.
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- Barclays Target Price Adjustment: Barclays has reduced its target price for Choice Hotels from $112 to $100.
- Market Implications: This adjustment reflects Barclays' updated outlook on the performance of Choice Hotels in the market.
- Significant Profit Decline: Choice Hotels reported an unadjusted profit of $0.44 per share for Q1, a 53% drop year-over-year, indicating a substantial deterioration in profitability despite record revenue, leading to a 14% decline in stock price during trading.
- Revenue Misses Expectations: The company generated $340.6 million in revenue for the first quarter, a 2.3% increase from last year but $7 million below expectations, primarily due to a 2.3% decline in U.S. RevPAR impacted by hurricanes, reflecting challenges in the market environment.
- Cautious Future Outlook: Choice Hotels maintains its FY26 EPS guidance at $6.92 to $7.14, below the consensus estimate of $7.17, indicating a cautious stance on future profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Global RevPAR Forecast Downgrade: The expectation for global RevPAR is adjusted to a decline of 2% to an increase of 1%, and this downgrade could further impact Choice Hotels' market performance, especially in the competitive hotel industry.
- Earnings Performance: Choice Hotels reported a Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $1.07, missing estimates by $0.25, although revenue reached $340.6 million, reflecting a 2.3% year-over-year increase and beating expectations by $6.79 million, indicating resilience in revenue growth.
- Net Income and EBITDA: The net income for Q1 was $20.3 million, with diluted EPS at $0.44, while adjusted EBITDA totaled $125.7 million, demonstrating effective cost control despite the impact on overall profitability.
- Royalty Rate Increase: The U.S. royalty rate expanded by 11 basis points to 5.22% compared to the same period last year, reflecting enhanced brand value and market positioning, which may lay the groundwork for future revenue growth.
- 2026 Outlook: The company projects net income for 2026 to be between $265 million and $275 million, with adjusted net income expected to range from $320 million to $330 million, indicating cautious optimism from management regarding future growth, despite a neutral market outlook.
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Choice Hotels is set to release its Q1 2023 earnings on April 30 before market open, with consensus EPS estimated at $1.32, reflecting a 1.5% year-over-year decline, and revenue expected at $333.81 million, a 0.3% year-over-year increase.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Choice Hotels has surpassed EPS estimates 63% of the time and revenue estimates 38% of the time, indicating a degree of stability in its financial performance.
- Expectation Adjustment Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen four upward revisions and three downward adjustments, while revenue estimates have experienced two upward revisions and three downward adjustments, reflecting market divergence regarding the company's future performance.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Choice Hotels has recently been rated as “Neutral,” primarily due to its earnings results aligning with market expectations and a tepid outlook, which may impact investor confidence.
- AI Integration Enhances Efficiency: Choice Hotels is collaborating with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to integrate artificial intelligence across its operations, optimizing hotel bookings, revenue management, and guest communication, thereby enhancing overall operational efficiency.
- Transformation into Intelligent Enterprise: By building a more intelligent and responsive enterprise on AWS cloud infrastructure, Choice Hotels can manage its hotel inventory more effectively, improving customer experience and strengthening its competitive position in the market.
- Positive Growth Outlook: Choice Hotels anticipates positive net room growth in the U.S. for 2026, driven by portfolio optimization and conversion momentum, indicating the company's ongoing development potential in the market.
- Financial Performance Exceeds Expectations: Choice Hotels reported a non-GAAP EPS of $1.60, beating expectations by $0.06, with revenue of $390.15 million exceeding forecasts by $20.51 million, reflecting the company's robust financial performance.









