Carrier Reports Q4 2025 Results with Mixed Performance
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4d ago
0mins
Should l Buy CARR?
Source: PRnewswire
Carrier Global Corp's stock rose 3.01% as it reached a 20-day high amid positive market conditions, with the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 both up over 1%.
The company reported Q4 2025 results showing a 6% decline in sales to $4.837 billion, with a significant 87% drop in operating profit to $101 million. Despite these challenges, Carrier achieved a notable improvement in free cash flow, reaching $909 million, indicating effective cash management. The mixed performance across segments, with a 17% drop in Climate Solutions Americas but a 13% growth in Transportation, suggests the need for strategic adjustments to address varying market demands.
The implications of these results highlight the company's vulnerability in residential markets while showcasing its strengths in other segments. The strong cash flow positions Carrier for potential future investments, but the cautious outlook for 2026, with expected continued weakness in certain markets, raises questions about sustained growth.
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Analyst Views on CARR
Wall Street analysts forecast CARR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CARR is 69.08 USD with a low forecast of 55.00 USD and a high forecast of 90.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 63.100
Low
55.00
Averages
69.08
High
90.00
Current: 63.100
Low
55.00
Averages
69.08
High
90.00
About CARR
Carrier Global Corporation is engaged in providing intelligent climate and energy solutions with a focus on providing digitally enabled lifecycle solutions to its customers. The Company’s segment include Climate Solutions Americas, which provides products, controls, services and solutions to meet the heating, ventilation and cooling (HVAC) needs of residential and commercial customers in North and South America; Climate Solutions Europe segment provides products, controls, services and solutions to meet the HVAC needs of residential and commercial customers in Europe; Climate Solutions Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa segment provides products, controls, services and solutions to meet the HVAC needs of residential and commercial customers in Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa; and Climate Solutions Transportation segment includes global transport refrigeration and monitoring products, services and digital solutions for trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal and rail.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Carrier Global Corporation Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Performance Overview: Carrier Global Corporation reported Q4 2025 sales of $4.8 billion, with adjusted operating profit at $455 million and adjusted EPS of $0.34, reflecting only a 1% decline in total organic sales despite significant softness in residential and light commercial markets.
- Data Center Growth: The data center segment saw a fourfold increase in orders during Q4, with expectations for revenue growth of about 50% in 2026, indicating the effectiveness of the company's strategic investments in high-growth areas.
- Cost Control Measures: The cost and pricing actions implemented are projected to deliver over $100 million in savings in 2026, helping to offset tariff impacts and enhance material productivity, thereby improving overall profitability.
- Future Outlook: The company anticipates approximately 1% organic growth for 2026, with double-digit growth in commercial HVAC and aftermarket services, although continued pressure in residential and light commercial markets is expected, with total sales projected at around $22 billion.
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Carrier Global Reports Q4 Results Below Expectations
- Earnings Decline: Carrier Global's Q4 adjusted earnings per share were $0.34, falling short of the $0.36 consensus estimate, resulting in a 6.1% drop in premarket trading, indicating significant profitability challenges for the company.
- Revenue Miss: The company's Q4 revenue of $4.84 billion did not meet analysts' expectations of $5.02 billion, with a 6% year-over-year sales decline, highlighting the impact of weakness in residential markets and distributor destocking.
- Sharp Profit Drop: Operating profit plummeted from $774 million a year earlier to $101 million, primarily due to the absence of prior-year gains from the sale of the commercial refrigeration business and exacerbated profit pressures from soft residential demand.
- Cautious Outlook: Carrier forecasts adjusted earnings of about $2.80 per share for 2026, below the consensus estimate of $2.88, with projected sales of approximately $22 billion, reflecting a lack of confidence in sustained double-digit growth in global commercial HVAC and aftermarket sectors.
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Carrier Reports Q4 2025 Results with Mixed Performance
- Sales Decline: Carrier's Q4 2025 sales reached $4.837 billion, a 6% decrease year-over-year, with organic sales down 9%, primarily due to weak residential markets and distributor destocking, indicating vulnerability in the face of market challenges.
- Operating Profit Plummets: The GAAP operating profit for Q4 was $101 million, an 87% decline compared to last year, reflecting gains from the sale of the commercial refrigeration business in the prior year, highlighting significant pressure on the company's profitability.
- Mixed Performance Across Segments: The Climate Solutions Americas segment saw a 17% drop in sales, while the Transportation segment grew by 13%, indicating performance disparities across markets, necessitating strategic adjustments to address varying market demands.
- Significant Free Cash Flow Improvement: Despite challenges, Carrier achieved $909 million in free cash flow in Q4, a substantial improvement from last year's negative figure, demonstrating effective cash management and potential for future investments.
See More
Carrier Global Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations
- Disappointing Earnings: Carrier Global reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.34, missing expectations by $0.02, with revenue of $4.84 billion reflecting a 6% year-over-year decline and falling short of estimates by $180 million, indicating ongoing market pressures.
- Strong Cash Flow: Despite revenue challenges, net cash flows from operating activities reached $1.04 billion and free cash flow was $909 million, demonstrating the company's stable cash management, which supports future investments and shareholder returns.
- Cautious 2026 Outlook: The company anticipates continued double-digit growth in global commercial HVAC and aftermarket services, yet expects ongoing weakness in residential and light commercial sectors in the Americas, with the divestiture of Riello projected to result in approximately $350 million in lost sales, impacting overall performance.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: Projected free cash flow for 2026 is around $2 billion, with plans for $1.5 billion in share repurchases, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders even amid challenges, thereby enhancing market confidence.
See More
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- McKesson Earnings Beat: McKesson's fiscal third-quarter earnings per share exceeded Wall Street's highest estimates, and the adjusted full-year EPS guidance was raised above analyst consensus, leading to a 16% stock price increase, indicating strong performance in the medical supply sector.
- Bob's Discount Furniture IPO: Bob's Discount Furniture debuted on the New York Stock Exchange with shares priced at $17, recently rising 10%, marking a successful entry into the public market and laying the groundwork for future growth.
- Fluence Energy Earnings Miss: Fluence Energy reported first-quarter revenue of $475.2 million, falling short of the $481.2 million consensus, with a per-share loss of 34 cents missing the 21-cent loss estimate, resulting in a 31% stock price drop, reflecting market concerns over its profitability.
- Cardinal Health Guidance Raised: Cardinal Health reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $2.63 per share, exceeding the $2.36 consensus, with revenue of $65.63 billion surpassing the $64.14 billion estimate, leading to an 8% stock price increase, showcasing strong growth potential in the healthcare services sector.
See More
Carrier Global Corporation Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Performance Overview: Carrier Global Corporation reported Q4 2025 sales of $4.8 billion, with adjusted operating profit at $455 million and adjusted EPS of $0.34, reflecting only a 1% decline in total organic sales despite significant softness in residential and light commercial markets.
- Data Center Growth: The data center segment saw a fourfold increase in orders during Q4, with expectations for revenue growth of about 50% in 2026, indicating the effectiveness of the company's strategic investments in high-growth areas.
- Cost Control Measures: The cost and pricing actions implemented are projected to deliver over $100 million in savings in 2026, helping to offset tariff impacts and enhance material productivity, thereby improving overall profitability.
- Future Outlook: The company anticipates approximately 1% organic growth for 2026, with double-digit growth in commercial HVAC and aftermarket services, although continued pressure in residential and light commercial markets is expected, with total sales projected at around $22 billion.
See More
Carrier Global Reports Q4 Results Below Expectations
- Earnings Decline: Carrier Global's Q4 adjusted earnings per share were $0.34, falling short of the $0.36 consensus estimate, resulting in a 6.1% drop in premarket trading, indicating significant profitability challenges for the company.
- Revenue Miss: The company's Q4 revenue of $4.84 billion did not meet analysts' expectations of $5.02 billion, with a 6% year-over-year sales decline, highlighting the impact of weakness in residential markets and distributor destocking.
- Sharp Profit Drop: Operating profit plummeted from $774 million a year earlier to $101 million, primarily due to the absence of prior-year gains from the sale of the commercial refrigeration business and exacerbated profit pressures from soft residential demand.
- Cautious Outlook: Carrier forecasts adjusted earnings of about $2.80 per share for 2026, below the consensus estimate of $2.88, with projected sales of approximately $22 billion, reflecting a lack of confidence in sustained double-digit growth in global commercial HVAC and aftermarket sectors.
See More
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- Qualcomm's Downgraded Forecast: Qualcomm's stock plummeted nearly 11% as the company projected adjusted earnings of $2.45 to $2.65 per share and revenue of $10.2 to $11 billion for Q2, both below analyst expectations of $11.11 billion and $2.89 per share, reflecting concerns over a global memory shortage.
- Estee Lauder's Disappointing Results: Despite reporting adjusted earnings of $0.89 per share, exceeding the $0.84 expected by analysts, Estee Lauder's stock fell 12%, indicating market skepticism about future growth, even as the company raised its full-year earnings guidance to $2.05 to $2.25 per share.
- Align Technology's Strong Performance: Align Technology's stock rose 2.7% after reporting fourth-quarter earnings of $3.29 per share, surpassing the $2.97 consensus estimate, with revenue of $1.05 billion exceeding expectations of $1.03 billion, showcasing robust demand for its products.
- Bristol-Myers Squibb's Stock Increase: The pharmaceutical giant's stock gained 2% after posting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.26 per share and revenues of $12.5 billion, both exceeding analyst expectations, highlighting its competitive strength and growth potential in the market.
See More
Carrier Reports Q4 2025 Results with Mixed Performance
- Sales Decline: Carrier's Q4 2025 sales reached $4.837 billion, a 6% decrease year-over-year, with organic sales down 9%, primarily due to weak residential markets and distributor destocking, indicating vulnerability in the face of market challenges.
- Operating Profit Plummets: The GAAP operating profit for Q4 was $101 million, an 87% decline compared to last year, reflecting gains from the sale of the commercial refrigeration business in the prior year, highlighting significant pressure on the company's profitability.
- Mixed Performance Across Segments: The Climate Solutions Americas segment saw a 17% drop in sales, while the Transportation segment grew by 13%, indicating performance disparities across markets, necessitating strategic adjustments to address varying market demands.
- Significant Free Cash Flow Improvement: Despite challenges, Carrier achieved $909 million in free cash flow in Q4, a substantial improvement from last year's negative figure, demonstrating effective cash management and potential for future investments.
See More
Carrier Global Q4 Earnings Miss Expectations
- Disappointing Earnings: Carrier Global reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.34, missing expectations by $0.02, with revenue of $4.84 billion reflecting a 6% year-over-year decline and falling short of estimates by $180 million, indicating ongoing market pressures.
- Strong Cash Flow: Despite revenue challenges, net cash flows from operating activities reached $1.04 billion and free cash flow was $909 million, demonstrating the company's stable cash management, which supports future investments and shareholder returns.
- Cautious 2026 Outlook: The company anticipates continued double-digit growth in global commercial HVAC and aftermarket services, yet expects ongoing weakness in residential and light commercial sectors in the Americas, with the divestiture of Riello projected to result in approximately $350 million in lost sales, impacting overall performance.
- Shareholder Return Strategy: Projected free cash flow for 2026 is around $2 billion, with plans for $1.5 billion in share repurchases, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders even amid challenges, thereby enhancing market confidence.
See More
