Should You Buy Carrier Global Corp (CARR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
57.910
1 Day change
1.47%
52 Week Range
81.090
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
CARR is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who wants to act immediately. The stock is near resistance with an overbought short-term setup, fundamentals recently showed declining revenue/margins, analysts have been trimming targets, and recent Congress activity is net selling. If you already own it, holding through the next catalyst (Q4 earnings on 2026-02-05) is reasonable; if you don’t own it, today is not an attractive entry based on the current data.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: CARR is at 57.94, just below R1 resistance (58.19) and above the pivot (56.662), meaning it’s closer to resistance than support. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.274) but contracting, suggesting bullish momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI(6) is ~70.9, which is effectively stretched/overbought for short-term timing (risk of near-term pullback). Moving averages are converging, implying trend is not strongly directional and could chop. Near-term probability model: pattern analysis shows a 60% chance of a small decline next day (-0.84%) and flat-to-slightly down next week (-0.2%), with a better 1-month outlook (+3.53%). Overall: short-term entry looks unfavorable (extended into resistance), while the longer-term setup is only mildly constructive.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put/call ratios are bullish (low put demand vs calls), especially on volume (0.19), indicating traders are positioning more for upside than downside. Activity/attention: Today’s option volume is well below the 30-day average (66.4% of avg), suggesting no major fresh conviction today. Volatility: IV percentile is high (80) with 30D IV ~36.9% vs historical vol ~31.9%, implying elevated expected moves/uncertainty versus typical behavior (often seen ahead of events like earnings). Net: options lean bullish on direction, but pricing implies elevated uncertainty.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
2026/01/28 13:01:42
1) Options and broader market put:call context are supportive (call preference; low put:call ratio suggests improving risk-on sentiment). 2) Hedge funds are buying (reported +101.57% increase in buying amount QoQ), which can be a medium-term support signal. 3) Seasonal/demand narrative: commentary in analyst notes points to potential normalization/restocking into early spring 2026 and the HVAC “cooling season.” 4) Upcoming earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-05 pre-market could reset expectations if results/guide are better than feared.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
2026/01/28 13:01:42
1) Technical timing risk: price is near resistance (58.19) with short-term RSI stretched and MACD momentum contracting; pre-market was -2.33%, hinting at near-term selling pressure. 2) Fundamental softness: the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3) showed revenue down -6.77% YoY, net income down -4.25% YoY, and gross margin down -7.46% YoY—pointing to demand/price-cost pressure. 3) Analyst target cuts dominate the recent tape (multiple firms lowered price targets in Dec/early Jan), reflecting reduced confidence in near-term growth. 4) Congress trading (last 90 days): 4 sales, 0 purchases (median ~$0.8M), signaling cautious-to-negative posture from influential/public officials. 5) Event risk: earnings on 2026-02-05 could disappoint given prior negative pre-announcement commentary referenced by analysts.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue fell to $5.579B (-6.77% YoY) and net income fell to $428M (-4.25% YoY). EPS was up slightly to 0.50 (+2.04% YoY), but gross margin declined to 26.17% (-7.46% YoY), which is a negative quality-of-growth signal (profits supported despite weaker top-line and margin pressure). Overall trend: mixed-to-negative, with shrinking revenue and margins being the key concern for a long-term buyer at today’s price.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets have mostly been lowered across multiple firms from Dec 2025 through early Jan 2026 (e.g., Morgan Stanley 60→55, Mizuho 75→67, UBS 73→70, Barclays 74→72, Wells Fargo 62→59), while JPMorgan recently nudged its target higher (60→63) but stayed Neutral. Ratings mix: several Outperform/Buy/Overweight remain (UBS Buy; Mizuho/RBC/Wolfe Outperform; Barclays Overweight), but neutrals are notable (JPMorgan Neutral; Morgan Stanley/Wells Fargo Equal Weight). Wall Street pros: potential 2026 demand broadening, seasonal recovery, and improved macro (rate cuts) support the bull case. Cons: near-term HVAC weakness, negative revisions, and earnings risk keep many firms cautious despite generally positive longer-term positioning.
Wall Street analysts forecast CARR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CARR is 69.08 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 90 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CARR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CARR is 69.08 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 90 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 57.070
Low
55
Averages
69.08
High
90
Current: 57.070
Low
55
Averages
69.08
High
90
JPMorgan
Neutral
maintain
$60 -> $63
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$60 -> $63
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
maintain
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Carrier Global to $63 from $60 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the electrical equipment and multi-industry group as part of its Q4 earnings preview. JPMorgan is more positive on "growth related names into and out of the quarter."
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
downgrade
$60 -> $55
2026-01-08
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$60 -> $55
2026-01-08
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Carrier Global to $55 from $60 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares after updating estimates ahead of Q4 earnings.
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