CARR Should I Buy
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Carrier Global Corp (CARR) is not a strong buy at this moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. The stock is experiencing significant bearish trends, weak financial performance, and negative sentiment from recent news. While analysts maintain positive ratings and hedge funds are increasing their positions, the overall risk outweighs the potential for immediate gains. A hold position is recommended until the company demonstrates improved financial performance and the market stabilizes.
The technical indicators show a bearish trend. The MACD is negatively expanding, RSI is neutral but leaning towards oversold territory, and moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading below its key support level of 55.248, with resistance at 59.538.
Analysts have raised price targets recently, with RBC, Baird, and Citi highlighting strong growth in Commercial HVAC and leverage to multi-year secular drivers like datacenter growth. Hedge funds have significantly increased their buying activity (+101.57% last quarter).
The stock dropped 7.73% in regular market trading, driven by a proposed antitrust lawsuit alleging coordinated price increases. Additionally, Q4 financials showed a sharp decline in revenue (-6.04% YoY), net income (-97.92% YoY), and EPS (-97.91% YoY). Gross margin also dropped significantly (-22.65% YoY).
In Q4 2025, Carrier Global reported weak financials with revenue at $4.837 billion (-6.04% YoY), net income at $53 million (-97.92% YoY), EPS at $0.06 (-97.91% YoY), and gross margin at 20.28% (-22.65% YoY). This indicates significant challenges in profitability and growth.
Analysts maintain generally positive ratings. RBC, Baird, and Citi raised price targets to $74, $72, and $72 respectively, citing strong Commercial HVAC growth and better-than-expected guidance. However, Morgan Stanley and Mizuho lowered their targets due to concerns about uneven terrain and sector challenges.
