Canadian National Railway Reports Strong Q4 Earnings

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

Source: seekingalpha

Updated: Jan 30 2026

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Should l Buy CNI?

Source: seekingalpha

Canadian National Railway's stock fell 4.60% and hit a 20-day low amid broader market declines, with the Nasdaq-100 down 1.37% and the S&P 500 down 0.79%.

The company reported a non-GAAP EPS of C$2.08 for Q4, with revenue reaching C$4.46 billion, reflecting a 2.3% year-over-year growth. This performance underscores the company's enhanced profitability amid stable transportation demand. Additionally, the operating ratio improved to 61.2%, indicating significant progress in cost control and operational efficiency. The company also plans to invest approximately C$2.8 billion in its capital program in 2026, reflecting confidence in future development.

Despite the stock's decline, the strong earnings report may bolster investor confidence in the long term, as the company continues to demonstrate operational improvements and a commitment to shareholder returns.

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Analyst Views on CNI

Wall Street analysts forecast CNI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CNI is 113.56 USD with a low forecast of 105.00 USD and a high forecast of 136.77 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

15 Analyst Rating

9 Buy

6 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 100.000

Low

105.00

Averages

113.56

High

136.77

Current: 100.000

Low

105.00

Averages

113.56

High

136.77

Stephens

Equal Weight

maintain

$105 -> $100

2026-02-02

Reason

Stephens

Price Target

$105 -> $100

AI Analysis

2026-02-02

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Stephens lowered the firm's price target on CN to $100 from $105 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. While the firm acknowledges CN's valuation is "very attractive," it sees economic uncertainty and trade policy resulting in expectations for muted volume trends again in FY26. Combined with year-over-year expense headwinds limiting OR improvement and associated adjusted EPS growth, the firm does not see a catalyst for higher estimate revisions in the near to medium term, the analyst added.

TD Cowen

Buy

downgrade

$166 -> $164

2026-02-02

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$166 -> $164

2026-02-02

downgrade

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on CN to C$164 from C$166 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they reported a slight Q4 beat and 2026 guidance was soft but the network is performing very well, commercial intensity has increased, and CN has the opportunity to close a large valuation discount versus peers if it can rebuild investor confidence.

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About CNI

Canadian National Railway Company is a transportation and logistics company. The Company's services include rail, intermodal, trucking, and supply chain services. The Company’s rail services offer equipment, customs brokerage services, transloading and distribution, private car storage and others. Its intermodal container services help shippers expand their door-to-door market reach with about 23 strategically placed intermodal terminals. Its intermodal services include temperature-controlled cargo, port partnerships, logistics park, custom brokerage, transloading and distribution, and others. Its trucking services include door-to-door service, import and export dray, interline services, and specialized services. Its supply chain services offer comprehensive services across a range of industries and product types. The Company transports more than 300 million tons of natural resources, manufactured products, and finished goods throughout North America every year.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.

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Berkshire Hathaway Performance: As of the third quarter, the foundation holds 21.8 million shares of Berkshire Hathaway, valued at about $11 billion, and despite market fluctuations, the foundation plans to continue holding these quality assets.
WM and Canadian National Railway: The Gates Foundation also holds stakes in WM and Canadian National Railway, representing 17% and 13.3% of its assets respectively, both companies possess strong market positions and stable profitability in their respective industries, showcasing Gates' focus on long-term investments.

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Buffett's Annual Donations: Warren Buffett donates a significant number of shares to the Gates Foundation each year, with last year's contribution amounting to 9.4 million Class B shares, requiring the foundation to utilize the entire value of these donations plus 5% of its other assets annually, ensuring a continuous influx of funds for philanthropic efforts.
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Record Grain Movement: In January 2026, CN shipped over 2.72 million metric tonnes of grain, marking its second-best performance for the month, just behind the all-time record of 2.85 million metric tonnes set in 2020, showcasing the company's robust capabilities in grain logistics.
Weather Resilience: Despite facing extreme cold weather across its network, CN successfully adjusted its operations to safely and efficiently transport Canadian grain to market, supporting farmers and supply chain partners, which highlights its operational resilience.
Winter Operations Plan: CN continues to implement its winter operations plan, employing proactive solutions to ensure transportation efficiency, thereby reinforcing its leadership position in the North American transportation sector.
Economic Impact: As a major transportation provider in North America, CN safely transports over 300 million tons of natural resources and manufactured goods annually, connecting Canada's eastern and western coasts with the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast, contributing to sustainable trade and community prosperity.

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Financial Report Release: CN has filed its 2025 Annual Financial Statements and Management's Discussion and Analysis with Canadian and U.S. securities regulators, enhancing transparency and compliance, which boosts investor confidence.
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Transportation Capacity Overview: CN safely transports over 300 million tons of natural resources and manufactured goods annually, underscoring its critical role in the North American economy and ensuring supply chain stability and efficiency, which supports sustainable regional development.
Network Coverage Advantage: With nearly 20,000 miles of rail network connecting Canada's East and West coasts with the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast, CN strengthens its competitive position in the North American market, facilitating regional trade prosperity.

RBC Lowers Price Target for Canadian National Railway

6 days agoYahoo Finance

Price Target Adjustment: RBC has lowered its price target for Canadian National Railway by $2.00 to $151, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future performance, which may affect investor confidence.
Market Reaction Anticipation: This price adjustment could lead to short-term volatility in CNR.TO's stock, prompting investors to monitor upcoming earnings reports to assess changes in the company's fundamentals.
Industry Impact: As a major North American railway operator, fluctuations in Canadian National Railway's stock price may have a ripple effect on the entire transportation sector, influencing investment decisions of related companies.
Analyst Sentiment: RBC's adjustment reflects a conservative view on the railway industry's prospects, potentially signaling concerns over economic slowdown and reduced transportation demand.