AMD's Q1 Guidance Falls Short, Stock Drops 9%
AMD's stock dropped 4.32% to hit a 20-day low, reflecting market disappointment over its Q1 guidance amid a broader tech sell-off.
The company's Q1 revenue forecast of $9.8 billion fell short of market expectations of $9.38 billion, undermining investor confidence despite a strong Q4 earnings report where revenue surpassed estimates at $10.27 billion. Analysts noted that AMD's guidance failed to meet elevated expectations, particularly in the context of ongoing growth in AI spending, which had significantly raised performance expectations. Furthermore, AMD's partnership with OpenAI is expected to drive future growth, with plans to deploy 6 gigawatts of Instinct GPUs starting in the second half of 2026.
This disappointing guidance has led to a significant drop in AMD's stock price, highlighting the challenges the company faces in meeting investor expectations in a competitive AI market, even as it continues to expand its partnerships and product offerings.
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- China Market Contribution: AMD's Q4 sales of $390 million in GPUs to China significantly boosted results, although management forecasts only $100 million in revenue for Q1, indicating potential volatility in future sales from this dynamic market.
- Data Center Revenue Growth: AMD's data center revenue surged 39% year-over-year to $5.4 billion, driven by record CPU and GPU sales, highlighting strong demand in the AI sector, with eight of the ten largest AI companies now utilizing its GPUs.
- Client and Gaming Segment Performance: Revenue from the client and gaming segments rose 34% and 50% respectively, totaling $3.9 billion, although the company anticipates a meaningful decline in semi-custom revenue in 2026, which could impact future growth potential.
- Overall Financial Performance: AMD's total revenue for Q4 climbed 34% year-over-year to $10.27 billion, with gross margin increasing to 54%, and adjusted earnings per share rising 40% to $1.53, surpassing market expectations and demonstrating robust performance amid high investor expectations.
- Market Recovery: The S&P 500 Index rose by 0.46%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.09%, and the Nasdaq 100 climbed by 0.61%, indicating a rebound in the market driven by recovering tech and chipmaker stocks, reflecting investor confidence in economic growth.
- Mining Stocks Surge: Gold prices increased by over 1% and silver prices jumped more than 6%, boosting mining stocks with Coeur Mining up over 6% and Freeport McMoRan up more than 5%, suggesting rising investor demand for precious metals amid inflation concerns.
- Positive Earnings Outlook: Over 79% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings exceeded expectations, with Q4 earnings growth projected at 8.4%, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, indicating sustained corporate profitability that could further drive stock market gains.
- Economic Data Focus: The market is closely watching upcoming employment and inflation data, with January nonfarm payrolls expected to rise by 69,000 and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4%, as these figures will influence investor expectations regarding future monetary policy, potentially leading to market volatility.
- Tech Stock Rally: The S&P 500 rose on Monday, buoyed by strong performances in big tech, with club holdings Nvidia and Broadcom climbing over 3%, indicating sustained market confidence in AI investments.
- Broadcom Rating Upgrade: The club upgraded Broadcom to a buy-equivalent 1 rating on Friday, reflecting optimism about its growth potential as a major beneficiary of increased AI spending, especially with Alphabet and Meta planning to boost their AI budgets.
- Microsoft Downgrade: Melius Research downgraded Microsoft from buy to hold, citing concerns that CEO Satya Nadella has lost the AI narrative; however, the club maintains a long-term positive outlook on Microsoft shares, indicating confidence in its future performance.
- Corning Stock Surge: Corning's stock jumped 7% to record highs after being featured as an
- Monthly Growth Recovery: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman revealed in an internal message that ChatGPT's monthly growth rate has rebounded to over 10%, indicating the company's ability to maintain growth under competitive pressure, which boosts investor confidence.
- Surge in Codex Usage: Following the release of the new GPT-5.3-Codex model and a standalone Mac app, Codex usage surged by approximately 50% in the past week, enhancing the product's market appeal and potentially driving future revenue growth.
- Advertising Strategy Adjustment: In response to competitor Anthropic's critical ads, Altman labeled them as
- Kyndryl Stock Plunge: Kyndryl Holdings' shares tumbled 55% following the disclosure of an audit committee review of cash management practices, which not only undermines investor confidence but may also pose greater challenges for future financing and operations.
- Executive Departures Impact: The immediate departure of CFO David Wyshner and General Counsel Edward Sebold indicates potential internal management issues, which could exacerbate market concerns regarding the company's governance structure.
- Cleveland-Cliffs Poor Performance: Cleveland-Cliffs reported a wider-than-expected adjusted EBITDA loss of $21 million, primarily due to weakness in the auto and Canadian markets; although the company anticipates improvements by 2026, it still faces short-term market challenges.
- Valaris Acquisition News: Valaris shares surged 28% after agreeing to be acquired by Transocean for $5.8 billion, with Valaris shareholders set to receive 15.235 shares of Transocean stock for each Valaris share held, reflecting strong demand in the offshore drilling services market.

Technology Sector Performance: The technology sector saw a 4% surge on Friday, as indicated by the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF.
Weekly Closing Status: Despite the Friday surge, the ETF closed the week down 1.9%, marking its second-largest trading volume in nearly four years.
2026 Performance Context: Technology remains the worst-performing sector among the 11 S&P sectors in 2026, with a decline of 2%.
Market Trends: The fluctuations highlight ongoing volatility and challenges within the technology sector amidst broader market conditions.










