AGNC Investment Reports Strong Q4 Earnings Despite Missed Estimates
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 22 2024
0mins
Should l Buy AGNC?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
AGNC Investment Corp. saw its stock rise by 3.01%, reaching a 52-week high, amid positive market conditions with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.92% and the S&P 500 up 0.44%.
The company reported a non-GAAP EPS of $0.35 for Q4 2025, missing the consensus estimate of $0.37. Despite this earnings miss, AGNC achieved a total stock return of 34.8% for the year, nearly double that of the S&P 500, indicating strong economic returns and a robust market performance. The comprehensive income for Q4 was reported at $0.89 per common share, reflecting positive impacts from reduced interest rate volatility and tighter mortgage spreads, which may support future earnings growth.
While the earnings shortfall could dampen investor confidence, AGNC's attractive 13.4% dividend yield continues to draw income-seeking investors. The overall improvement in economic conditions may provide a favorable backdrop for AGNC's future performance, necessitating strategic adjustments in investor portfolios.
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Analyst Views on AGNC
Wall Street analysts forecast AGNC stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 11.300
Low
10.00
Averages
11.71
High
13.00
Current: 11.300
Low
10.00
Averages
11.71
High
13.00
About AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp. is an internally managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company provides private capital to the United States housing market, enhancing liquidity in the residential real estate mortgage markets and, in turn, facilitating home ownership in the United States. The Company invests primarily in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (Agency RMBS) on a leveraged basis. These investments consist of residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by a United States Government-sponsored enterprise, such as the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac, and together with Fannie Mae, the GSEs), or by a United States Government agency, such as the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae). It may also invest in other assets related to the housing, mortgage or real estate markets.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
AGNC Investment Starts 2026 Strong with High Dividend Yield
- Stock Performance: AGNC Investment has started 2026 strong, with shares up over 5% year-to-date, which has slightly reduced its dividend yield to 12.7%, still significantly higher than the S&P 500's 1.2% yield.
- Dividend Income: At the current yield, a $500 investment generates $5.28 in monthly dividend income, amounting to an annualized $63.40, showcasing its attractiveness compared to most other assets, although it's lower than a few months ago.
- Dividend Sustainability: AGNC has maintained its dividend payments for over five consecutive years despite interest rate volatility, highlighting its financial stability in the current market environment.
- Investment Environment: The current strong environment for Agency MBS investments positions AGNC well, as it focuses exclusively on these securities, suggesting it can continue generating returns sufficient to cover its capital costs and enhance liquidity for future investments.
See More
Comparison of Dividends: AGNC Investment vs Realty Income
- Dividend Yield Volatility: AGNC Investment has maintained a dividend yield above 10% for most of its existence; however, its unreliable nature stems from significant volatility and a long-term downward trend in dividends over the past decade, potentially leading to reduced income and capital for investors.
- Total Return Performance: While AGNC Investment has outperformed the S&P 500 in total return since its IPO in May 2008, relying on dividends for living expenses without reinvestment poses a risk of diminished income for dividend investors.
- Reliability of Realty Income: In contrast, Realty Income has consistently increased its dividend annually for three decades, with an annualized growth rate of approximately 4.2%, slightly above the long-term inflation growth rate, indicating a steady increase in the purchasing power of its dividends over time.
- Diversified Portfolio: Realty Income is recognized for its diversified portfolio and conservative financial strategies; although its 4.9% yield is lower than AGNC Investment's 12.6%, it still offers an attractive income stream compared to other options in the market.
See More
Comparing High Dividends of AGNC and Ares Capital
- AGNC Overview: AGNC Investment boasts a monthly dividend yield exceeding 12.5%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's current yield of about 1.1%, indicating its appeal in low-risk fixed-income investments, although its 7.2x leverage ratio could impact dividend stability if market conditions worsen.
- Ares Capital Strength: As the largest BDC, Ares Capital focuses on providing direct loans to middle-market companies, achieving a 9.3% weighted average yield in its portfolio, and has maintained stable or growing dividends for over 16 consecutive years, showcasing its strong balance sheet and liquidity.
- Yield vs. Growth Trade-off: AGNC's higher yield and monthly dividend payments make it an ideal choice for risk-tolerant investors seeking income, while Ares Capital offers greater growth potential through increasing portfolio value and dividends, appealing to those seeking higher total returns.
- Long-term Return Performance: Since its IPO in 2008, AGNC has delivered an average annualized total return of 11.8%, while Ares Capital has provided a 12% annualized total return to investors over the past 20 years, highlighting both companies' stability and attractiveness under varying market conditions.
See More
Analysis of High Dividend Yields from AGNC and Ares Capital
- Dividend Yield Comparison: AGNC Investment boasts a monthly dividend yield exceeding 12.5%, while Ares Capital offers a quarterly yield of 9.6%, both significantly higher than the S&P 500's current yield of 1.1%, highlighting their appeal to income-focused investors.
- AGNC's Stability: AGNC has maintained its monthly dividend since 2020, supported by a 7.2x leverage ratio and a robust MBS market; although market fluctuations may necessitate future dividend adjustments, it has achieved an annualized total return of 11.8% since its 2008 IPO.
- Ares Capital's Growth Potential: As the largest BDC, Ares Capital's loan portfolio has a weighted average yield of 9.3%, and it has consistently paid stable or increasing dividends for over 16 years, demonstrating strong financial management and liquidity.
- Investor Choice: AGNC's higher current yield and monthly payments make it suitable for risk-tolerant investors, while Ares Capital's growth potential and stable dividends appeal to those seeking higher total returns.
See More
Analysis of AGNC Investment's High Dividend Yield
- Dividend Yield Comparison: AGNC Investment boasts a high dividend yield of 12.5%, significantly surpassing the S&P 500's 1.1% and the average REIT's 3.8%, yet investors should be cautious due to its high volatility.
- Business Model Distinction: Unlike traditional REITs that generate income through leasing properties, AGNC Investment operates by buying and selling bond-like securities created from pooled mortgages, resembling a bond mutual fund, which complicates its revenue model.
- Investor Suitability: For dividend-focused investors, AGNC Investment may not be ideal as its dividends have trended lower over the past decade, leading to a decline in stock price and negatively impacting income and capital for investors.
- Total Return Advantage: Although AGNC Investment's dividends are unstable, reinvesting dividends since its IPO reveals that its total return has outperformed the S&P 500 index, indicating its potential value in diversifying an investment portfolio.
See More
Analysis of AGNC Investment Trust's Returns and Risks
- High Dividend Yield: AGNC Investment boasts a substantial 12.5% dividend yield, significantly surpassing the S&P 500's 1.1% and the average REIT's 3.8%, yet its high volatility and declining trend over the past decade may deter income-focused investors.
- Business Model Distinction: Unlike traditional REITs that generate income through leasing properties, AGNC operates by buying and selling mortgage-backed securities, resembling a bond mutual fund, which introduces uncertainty and risk to its income generation.
- Total Return Performance: Despite the volatility in dividends, reinvesting AGNC's dividends since its IPO has resulted in total returns that exceed those of the S&P 500, indicating a potential diversification benefit for investors considering this mortgage REIT.
- Investor Suitability: AGNC may not be suitable for dividend-seeking investors due to its income instability, but for those focused on total returns, this mortgage REIT could serve as an effective tool for wealth accumulation.
See More
AGNC Investment Starts 2026 Strong with High Dividend Yield
- Stock Performance: AGNC Investment has started 2026 strong, with shares up over 5% year-to-date, which has slightly reduced its dividend yield to 12.7%, still significantly higher than the S&P 500's 1.2% yield.
- Dividend Income: At the current yield, a $500 investment generates $5.28 in monthly dividend income, amounting to an annualized $63.40, showcasing its attractiveness compared to most other assets, although it's lower than a few months ago.
- Dividend Sustainability: AGNC has maintained its dividend payments for over five consecutive years despite interest rate volatility, highlighting its financial stability in the current market environment.
- Investment Environment: The current strong environment for Agency MBS investments positions AGNC well, as it focuses exclusively on these securities, suggesting it can continue generating returns sufficient to cover its capital costs and enhance liquidity for future investments.
See More
Comparison of Dividends: AGNC Investment vs Realty Income
- Dividend Yield Volatility: AGNC Investment has maintained a dividend yield above 10% for most of its existence; however, its unreliable nature stems from significant volatility and a long-term downward trend in dividends over the past decade, potentially leading to reduced income and capital for investors.
- Total Return Performance: While AGNC Investment has outperformed the S&P 500 in total return since its IPO in May 2008, relying on dividends for living expenses without reinvestment poses a risk of diminished income for dividend investors.
- Reliability of Realty Income: In contrast, Realty Income has consistently increased its dividend annually for three decades, with an annualized growth rate of approximately 4.2%, slightly above the long-term inflation growth rate, indicating a steady increase in the purchasing power of its dividends over time.
- Diversified Portfolio: Realty Income is recognized for its diversified portfolio and conservative financial strategies; although its 4.9% yield is lower than AGNC Investment's 12.6%, it still offers an attractive income stream compared to other options in the market.
See More
Comparing High Dividends of AGNC and Ares Capital
- AGNC Overview: AGNC Investment boasts a monthly dividend yield exceeding 12.5%, significantly higher than the S&P 500's current yield of about 1.1%, indicating its appeal in low-risk fixed-income investments, although its 7.2x leverage ratio could impact dividend stability if market conditions worsen.
- Ares Capital Strength: As the largest BDC, Ares Capital focuses on providing direct loans to middle-market companies, achieving a 9.3% weighted average yield in its portfolio, and has maintained stable or growing dividends for over 16 consecutive years, showcasing its strong balance sheet and liquidity.
- Yield vs. Growth Trade-off: AGNC's higher yield and monthly dividend payments make it an ideal choice for risk-tolerant investors seeking income, while Ares Capital offers greater growth potential through increasing portfolio value and dividends, appealing to those seeking higher total returns.
- Long-term Return Performance: Since its IPO in 2008, AGNC has delivered an average annualized total return of 11.8%, while Ares Capital has provided a 12% annualized total return to investors over the past 20 years, highlighting both companies' stability and attractiveness under varying market conditions.
See More
Analysis of High Dividend Yields from AGNC and Ares Capital
- Dividend Yield Comparison: AGNC Investment boasts a monthly dividend yield exceeding 12.5%, while Ares Capital offers a quarterly yield of 9.6%, both significantly higher than the S&P 500's current yield of 1.1%, highlighting their appeal to income-focused investors.
- AGNC's Stability: AGNC has maintained its monthly dividend since 2020, supported by a 7.2x leverage ratio and a robust MBS market; although market fluctuations may necessitate future dividend adjustments, it has achieved an annualized total return of 11.8% since its 2008 IPO.
- Ares Capital's Growth Potential: As the largest BDC, Ares Capital's loan portfolio has a weighted average yield of 9.3%, and it has consistently paid stable or increasing dividends for over 16 years, demonstrating strong financial management and liquidity.
- Investor Choice: AGNC's higher current yield and monthly payments make it suitable for risk-tolerant investors, while Ares Capital's growth potential and stable dividends appeal to those seeking higher total returns.
See More
Analysis of AGNC Investment's High Dividend Yield
- Dividend Yield Comparison: AGNC Investment boasts a high dividend yield of 12.5%, significantly surpassing the S&P 500's 1.1% and the average REIT's 3.8%, yet investors should be cautious due to its high volatility.
- Business Model Distinction: Unlike traditional REITs that generate income through leasing properties, AGNC Investment operates by buying and selling bond-like securities created from pooled mortgages, resembling a bond mutual fund, which complicates its revenue model.
- Investor Suitability: For dividend-focused investors, AGNC Investment may not be ideal as its dividends have trended lower over the past decade, leading to a decline in stock price and negatively impacting income and capital for investors.
- Total Return Advantage: Although AGNC Investment's dividends are unstable, reinvesting dividends since its IPO reveals that its total return has outperformed the S&P 500 index, indicating its potential value in diversifying an investment portfolio.
See More
Analysis of AGNC Investment Trust's Returns and Risks
- High Dividend Yield: AGNC Investment boasts a substantial 12.5% dividend yield, significantly surpassing the S&P 500's 1.1% and the average REIT's 3.8%, yet its high volatility and declining trend over the past decade may deter income-focused investors.
- Business Model Distinction: Unlike traditional REITs that generate income through leasing properties, AGNC operates by buying and selling mortgage-backed securities, resembling a bond mutual fund, which introduces uncertainty and risk to its income generation.
- Total Return Performance: Despite the volatility in dividends, reinvesting AGNC's dividends since its IPO has resulted in total returns that exceed those of the S&P 500, indicating a potential diversification benefit for investors considering this mortgage REIT.
- Investor Suitability: AGNC may not be suitable for dividend-seeking investors due to its income instability, but for those focused on total returns, this mortgage REIT could serve as an effective tool for wealth accumulation.
See More
