AGNC Investment Corp. saw its stock rise by 3.01%, reaching a 52-week high, amid positive market conditions with the Nasdaq-100 up 0.92% and the S&P 500 up 0.44%.
The company reported a non-GAAP EPS of $0.35 for Q4 2025, missing the consensus estimate of $0.37. Despite this earnings miss, AGNC achieved a total stock return of 34.8% for the year, nearly double that of the S&P 500, indicating strong economic returns and a robust market performance. The comprehensive income for Q4 was reported at $0.89 per common share, reflecting positive impacts from reduced interest rate volatility and tighter mortgage spreads, which may support future earnings growth.
While the earnings shortfall could dampen investor confidence, AGNC's attractive 13.4% dividend yield continues to draw income-seeking investors. The overall improvement in economic conditions may provide a favorable backdrop for AGNC's future performance, necessitating strategic adjustments in investor portfolios.
Wall Street analysts forecast AGNC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGNC is 10.44 USD with a low forecast of 10.00 USD and a high forecast of 11.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AGNC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGNC is 10.44 USD with a low forecast of 10.00 USD and a high forecast of 11.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 12.020
Low
10.00
Averages
10.44
High
11.00
Current: 12.020
Low
10.00
Averages
10.44
High
11.00
Wells Fargo
Overweight
maintain
$10 -> $12
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Wells Fargo
Price Target
$10 -> $12
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on AGNC Investment to $12 from $10 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported Q4 core EPS of 35c, below its 38c estimate and consensus at 37c. On the call, AGNC noted that it expects the October and December rate cuts to provide a tailwind to net spread and dollar roll income. The outlook for additional Fed rate cuts in 2026 is constructive for agency MBS REIT stocks and BV, Wells argues.
Keefe Bruyette
Bose George
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$12
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Bose George
Price Target
$12
2026-01-28
New
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette analyst Bose George downgraded AGNC Investment to Market Perform from Outperform with a $12 price target.
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Keefe Bruyette
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$11 -> $12
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$11 -> $12
2026-01-28
New
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette downgraded AGNC Investment to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $12, up from $11. The risk-reward profile has become more balanced following a strong recovery in valuations and meaningful tightening in agency spreads, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While medium-term outlook for agency mREIT fundamentals remains constructive and downside risk appears contained, much of the early-cycle recovery in agency MBS spreads and stock multiples has been realized, the firm added.
BofA
Derek Hewett
Neutral
maintain
$10
2026-01-25
New
Reason
BofA
Derek Hewett
Price Target
$10
2026-01-25
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
BofA analyst Derek Hewett raised the firm's price target on AGNC Investment to $11.50 from $10 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm cites higher book value estimates for the target increase. The agency mortgage backed securities macro environment was favorable in Q4 as interest rate volatility declined and the yield curve steepened, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
About AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp. is an internally managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company provides private capital to the United States housing market, enhancing liquidity in the residential real estate mortgage markets and, in turn, facilitating home ownership in the United States. The Company invests primarily in Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (Agency RMBS) on a leveraged basis. These investments consist of residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by a United States Government-sponsored enterprise, such as the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac, and together with Fannie Mae, the GSEs), or by a United States Government agency, such as the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae). It may also invest in other assets related to the housing, mortgage or real estate markets.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
