Vicious Cycle Index Warns of U.S. Recession
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 14 2026
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Recession Signal: The Vicious Cycle Index (VCI) has accurately predicted all U.S. recessions since 1945 and currently indicates that the U.S. economy is in the early stages of a recession, prompting investors to adjust their strategies based on this critical indicator.
- Unemployment Rate Changes: The VCI improves upon the Sahm Rule by adjusting unemployment data using a five-year moving average of labor force participation, signaling a recession when the average unemployment rate rises more than 1% over the previous 12 months, enhancing its accuracy.
- Investment Strategy Recommendations: With rising recession risks, investors are advised to increase cash positions and consider buying recession-resistant stocks such as Walmart, AbbVie, and American States Water, which are likely to maintain stable dividend payments during economic downturns.
- Declining Market Confidence: Consumer confidence hit a record low in April, and the labor force participation rate fell to 61.9%, indicating that more Americans are giving up on job searches; Moody's Analytics raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 48.6%, surpassing other organizations' forecasts.
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Analyst Views on WMT
Wall Street analysts forecast WMT stock price to fall
26 Analyst Rating
25 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 130.200
Low
119.00
Averages
125.75
High
136.00
Current: 130.200
Low
119.00
Averages
125.75
High
136.00
About WMT
Walmart Inc. is a technology-powered omnichannel retailer. The Company is engaged in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, as well as eCommerce Websites and mobile applications, located throughout the United States (U.S.), Africa, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India and Mexico. It operates in three reportable segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International and Sam's Club U.S. The Walmart U.S. segment includes the Company's mass merchandising concept in the U.S., as well as eCommerce, which includes omni-channel initiatives and certain other business offerings such as advertising services. The Walmart International segment consists of the Company's operations outside of the U.S. through its subsidiaries, as well as eCommerce and omni-channel initiatives. The Sam's Club U.S. segment includes the warehouse membership clubs in the U.S., as well as samsclub.com and omni-channel initiatives.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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