Two Utility Stocks at Risk of Significant Decline This Quarter
UGI Corp Performance: UGI Corp reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter adjusted EPS results, leading to a 12% stock gain over the past month and an RSI value of 88.9, indicating it may be overbought.
New Jersey Resources Corp Results: New Jersey Resources posted mixed quarterly results, with a 6% stock gain over the past month and an RSI value of 74.5, suggesting it is also nearing overbought territory.
Momentum Indicator Explanation: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that helps traders assess stock performance by comparing price strength on up days versus down days, with values above 70 indicating overbought conditions.
Market Context: Both UGI and New Jersey Resources are highlighted as potential warning signs for momentum-focused investors, as their high RSI values suggest they may be overvalued in the current market.
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Analyst Views on NJR
About NJR
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- Share Acquisition Details: Bragg Financial Advisors reported an acquisition of 205,627 shares of New Jersey Resources (NJR) in its SEC filing dated February 13, 2026, representing an estimated $9.50 million trade, indicating the firm's confidence in the stock's future growth potential.
- Value Appreciation: Following this purchase, NJR now constitutes 1.12% of Bragg's reportable 13F AUM, and the position's value increased by $8.39 million due to both the acquisition and favorable share price movements, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the company.
- Strong Financial Performance: New Jersey Resources kicked off fiscal 2026 with a net income of $122.5 million, and management raised full-year net financial earnings per share guidance to a range of $3.28 to $3.43, marking the sixth consecutive year of upward revisions, showcasing the company's robust profitability.
- Capital Investment Strategy: The company deployed $163.6 million in capital this quarter and outlined a $4.8 billion to $5.2 billion investment plan through 2030, underscoring its long-term strategic focus on renewable energy and utility sectors, which enhances investor confidence.
- Dividend Payment Overview: New Jersey Resources Corp pays an annualized dividend of $1.90 per share, distributed quarterly, indicating strong cash flow and profitability, which attracts value investors.
- Importance of Dividend History: Studying a company's past dividend history is crucial for assessing the likelihood of current dividends continuing, providing investors with a basis for evaluating long-term stability.
- Investor Focus: Value investors typically seek profitable companies trading at attractive valuations, utilizing the proprietary DividendRank formula to identify the most interesting stocks, thereby aiding investors in discovering ideas worth further research.
- Market Perspective: While the views expressed are those of the author, they underscore the significance of dividend investing, reflecting the market's demand for stable income.
- Dividend Stability: New Jersey Resources Corp (NJR) has been included in the 'Dividend Channel S.A.F.E. 25' list due to its flawless dividend payment history over the past two decades, which enhances investor confidence in its reliability.
- Dividend Yield: NJR pays an annualized dividend of $1.9 per share in quarterly installments, representing a 0.24% holding in the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), indicating its attractiveness and stability among dividend investors.
- Market Position: As a member of the iShares S&P 1500 Index ETF (ITOT), NJR's stock, valued at over $50.87 million, is recognized in the market, further solidifying its position in the gas utilities sector.
- Growth Potential: NJR's dividend payments not only demonstrate strong yield characteristics but also show potential for continued growth, attracting income-seeking investors, especially in the current economic climate.
- Performance Boost: New Jersey Resources Corporation reported a net financial earnings (NFE) of $118.2 million or $1.17 per share during an unprecedented winter, showcasing the company's exceptional performance under extreme conditions, which enhances market confidence.
- Guidance Increase: The company raised its fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance by $0.25 to a range of $3.28 to $3.43, marking the sixth consecutive year of guidance increases, reflecting strong performance from the Energy Services segment during winter volatility.
- Long-Term Contract Security: NJR secured a long-term contract for initial capacity expansion at Leaf River, with additional phases supported by long-term fee-based contracts and expected FERC authorization, further solidifying its market position.
- Capital Expenditure Outlook: The company reaffirmed its capital expenditure outlook of $4.8 billion to $5.2 billion through fiscal 2030, with over 60% allocated to the utility segment, demonstrating a strong commitment to future growth.
- Earnings Beat: New Jersey Resources reported Q1 GAAP EPS of $1.21, exceeding expectations by $0.17, indicating strong performance in the Energy Services sector and boosting investor confidence.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q1 revenue of $604.85 million, a 23.9% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $53.15 million, reflecting sustained business growth and robust market demand.
- Upgraded 2026 Outlook: NJR raised its fiscal 2026 net financial earnings per share (NFEPS) guidance to a range of $3.28 to $3.43, up from $3.03 to $3.18, indicating a $0.25 increase and a positive outlook for future performance.
- Long-term Growth Target Maintained: The company maintains its long-term NFEPS growth target of 7% to 9%, implying a fiscal 2026 NFEPS range of $3.03 to $3.08, ensuring sustainable development in the future.
- Earnings Decline: New Jersey Resources Corp. reported a Q1 net income of $122.49 million, or $1.21 per share, down from $131.31 million and $1.31 per share last year, indicating a weakening in profitability.
- Revenue Growth: Despite the earnings drop, the company saw a 23.9% increase in revenue for the quarter, reaching $604.85 million compared to $488.36 million last year, suggesting an expansion in business scale.
- Market Reaction: The decline in earnings may negatively impact investor confidence, particularly as the company failed to maintain last year's profit levels, potentially leading to stock price volatility.
- Future Outlook: The company needs to implement measures to improve profitability in response to market concerns about its financial health, ensuring a balance between continued revenue growth and profitability.









