Trump's Pharma Tariffs Can Hit Novo Nordisk, Says Barclays Expert, But It's 'Difficult' To Predict As Drugmakers Have 'Complex Supply Chains'
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jul 16 2025
0mins
Source: Benzinga
Tariffs on Pharmaceuticals: The Trump administration is considering imposing up to 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical companies, with Barclays' Emily Field noting that Novo Nordisk may be particularly affected due to its supply chain in Denmark, while the overall sector is seen as unfavorable for such tariffs.
Impact on Investments and Costs: European pharma companies like Novartis, Roche, and AstraZeneca are planning significant investments in the U.S., but Barclays warns that high tariffs could inflate production costs and lead to drug shortages, negatively impacting patients.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 886.630
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 886.630
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and market products in a single business segment called human pharmaceutical products. The Company manufacture and distribute its products through facilities in the United States, including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. The Company’s products are sold in approximately 90 countries. Its Cardiometabolic Health products Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound, and others. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, Verzenio, Retevmo, Jaypirca, and others. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. Its LillyDirect, a direct-to-patient digital health care platform, provides delivery of select Lilly medicines dispensed by third-party pharmacies to patients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Positive Market Reaction: Following Eli Lilly's acquisition of Centessa, Alkermes shares surged 15%, reflecting market optimism regarding its prospects in the sleep disorder space, particularly with its developing orexin 2 receptor drug.
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See More
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- Clear Strategic Intent: Through this acquisition, Lilly aims to expand its product portfolio, particularly in the treatment of sleep disorders, to meet the growing market demand and drive future revenue growth.
- Positive Market Reaction: The market reacted positively to the acquisition news, with analysts generally believing that this move will enhance Lilly's innovation capabilities and competitive edge, especially in the rapidly evolving biopharmaceutical industry.
- Financial Impact Assessment: Although the acquisition amounts to $7.8 billion, Lilly anticipates achieving a return on investment in the coming years by integrating Centessa's R&D pipeline and market resources, thereby strengthening its overall financial health.
See More
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See More
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- Clinical Trial Progress: Alkermes' alixorexton demonstrated statistically significant improvements in wakefulness during mid-stage studies compared to placebo, indicating its potential in treating narcolepsy and attracting interest from large pharma companies.
- Positive Market Reaction: Following Eli Lilly's acquisition of Centessa, Alkermes shares surged 15%, reflecting market optimism regarding its prospects in the sleep disorder space, particularly with its developing orexin 2 receptor drug.
- Analyst Outlook: RBC Capital highlighted that the Lilly-Centessa deal underscores large pharma interest in the sleep sector, assigning Alkermes an 'Outperform' rating with a $45 price target, suggesting the stock is undervalued based on its orexin program alone.
- Retail Investor Sentiment Shift: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Alkermes stock shifted from 'neutral' to 'bullish' in the past 24 hours, with message volume increasing from 'low' to 'normal' levels, indicating rising interest in the stock.
See More
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- Market Expansion Opportunity: Rhythm Pharmaceuticals' Imcivree, approved in 2020 for chronic obesity treatment due to specific protein deficiencies, achieved $189.8 million in sales for 2025, reflecting a nearly 46% year-over-year growth, indicating strong market demand and growth potential.
- FDA New Approval: On March 19, 2023, Rhythm Pharmaceuticals announced that the FDA granted approval for Imcivree for patients with acquired hypothalamic obesity, potentially adding 10,000 patients and expanding the target market from 7,500 to 17,500, significantly enhancing market coverage.
- Clinical Trial Risks: Despite the new indication, Imcivree failed to meet its primary endpoint in a phase 3 trial for obesity treatment in patients with certain genetic conditions, increasing uncertainty around future approvals and potentially impacting the company's market outlook.
- Profitability Challenges: Rhythm Pharmaceuticals faces ongoing profitability risks and intense competition in a small market; while there are other pipeline candidates, the overall profit outlook remains unclear, necessitating cautious risk assessment by investors.
See More
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- Strong Performance in Health Care: Late Tuesday afternoon, the NYSE Health Care Index rose by 2%, indicating a rebound in investor confidence towards the health sector, likely driven by an overall improvement in market sentiment.
- Signs of Market Recovery: The rise in health care stocks reflects optimistic expectations for economic recovery, particularly post-pandemic, as demand for health services continues to grow, potentially boosting the performance of related companies.
- Increased Investor Attention: With the improved performance of the health care sector, investors may reassess their portfolios and increase allocations to health stocks, thereby driving further growth and stability in the industry.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: The strong performance in the health sector could attract more capital inflows, especially in the fields of innovative drugs and medical technologies, which are expected to provide momentum for future growth.
See More
Market Rallies on Signs of Iran Conflict De-escalation
- Market Rally: The S&P 500 surged over 2% on Tuesday amid signs of potential de-escalation in the Iran conflict, reflecting investor optimism, although caution is still warranted regarding this signal.
- Eli Lilly Acquisition: Eli Lilly announced its acquisition of Centessa Pharmaceuticals for up to $7.8 billion, focusing on new treatments for excessive daytime sleepiness, with peak sales for its key asset cleminorexton projected to exceed $3 billion, further solidifying Lilly's position in neuroscience.
- Novo Nordisk Competition: Novo Nordisk launched a subscription program to lower prices on Wegovy, aiming to reclaim market share from Eli Lilly, which leads in the GLP-1 category, highlighting the need for continuous innovation to maintain competitive advantage.
- Analyst Ratings: Truist initiated coverage of Corning with a hold rating and a $125 price target, expressing optimism about its optical business growth while raising concerns over current valuations, indicating a cautious market outlook on Corning's future growth potential.
See More
Eli Lilly to Acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals for Up to $7.8 Billion
- Acquisition Scale: Eli Lilly announced it will acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals, a company focused on sleep-wake disorder drugs, for up to $7.8 billion, which is expected to significantly enhance Lilly's market position in sleep medicine.
- Clear Strategic Intent: Through this acquisition, Lilly aims to expand its product portfolio, particularly in the treatment of sleep disorders, to meet the growing market demand and drive future revenue growth.
- Positive Market Reaction: The market reacted positively to the acquisition news, with analysts generally believing that this move will enhance Lilly's innovation capabilities and competitive edge, especially in the rapidly evolving biopharmaceutical industry.
- Financial Impact Assessment: Although the acquisition amounts to $7.8 billion, Lilly anticipates achieving a return on investment in the coming years by integrating Centessa's R&D pipeline and market resources, thereby strengthening its overall financial health.
See More
Eli Lilly to Acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals for Up to $7.8 Billion
- Acquisition Scale: Eli Lilly has agreed to acquire Centessa Pharmaceuticals for up to $7.8 billion, with an upfront payment of $38 per share representing a 38% premium over Monday's closing price, which will further solidify Lilly's leadership in the neuroscience sector.
- Drug Development Potential: The orexin agonists being developed by Centessa are expected to treat narcolepsy and other neurological conditions associated with drowsiness, with a market potential estimated between $15 billion and $20 billion, significantly enhancing Lilly's product portfolio if successfully launched.
- Market Competition Landscape: Although Centessa's drug is not expected to receive FDA approval until 2028, its competitor Taked's similar drug is under review, indicating the intense competition in the market, prompting Lilly to accelerate its development efforts to maintain its lead.
- Strategic Investment Direction: Lilly plans to leverage cash flows from its best-selling drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro for further investments, having recently announced acquisitions of cell therapy company Orna Therapeutics and inflammation-focused Ventyx Biosciences, demonstrating its commitment to expanding its product line.
See More
