Trump's Pharma Tariffs Can Hit Novo Nordisk, Says Barclays Expert, But It's 'Difficult' To Predict As Drugmakers Have 'Complex Supply Chains'
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jul 16 2025
0mins
Source: Benzinga
Tariffs on Pharmaceuticals: The Trump administration is considering imposing up to 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical companies, with Barclays' Emily Field noting that Novo Nordisk may be particularly affected due to its supply chain in Denmark, while the overall sector is seen as unfavorable for such tariffs.
Impact on Investments and Costs: European pharma companies like Novartis, Roche, and AstraZeneca are planning significant investments in the U.S., but Barclays warns that high tariffs could inflate production costs and lead to drug shortages, negatively impacting patients.
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Analyst Views on LLY
Wall Street analysts forecast LLY stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 1098.570
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
Current: 1098.570
Low
950.00
Averages
1192
High
1500
About LLY
Eli Lilly and Company is a medicine company, which discovers, develops, manufactures, and market products in a single business segment called human pharmaceutical products. The Company manufacture and distribute its products through facilities in the United States, including Puerto Rico, and in Europe and Asia. The Company’s products are sold in approximately 90 countries. Its Cardiometabolic Health products Basaglar; Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, and others; Humulin, Humulin 70/30, and others; Jardiance; Mounjaro; Trulicity; Zepbound, and others. Its oncology products include Cyramza, Erbitux, Tyvyt, Verzenio, Retevmo, Jaypirca, and others. Its immunology products include Ebglyss, Olumiant, Omvoh, and Taltz. Its neuroscience products include Emgality and Kisunla. Its LillyDirect, a direct-to-patient digital health care platform, provides delivery of select Lilly medicines dispensed by third-party pharmacies to patients.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Expansion in Blood Cancer: The acquisition of Ajax Therapeutics will provide Lilly with a JAK2 inhibitor for bone marrow cancer, with a total deal value of up to $2.3 billion, enhancing its technological and data capabilities in blood cancer treatment.
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See More
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- Massive Acquisition Scale: Eli Lilly has announced over $25 billion in acquisitions in 2026, covering areas such as sleep medicine, blood cancers, cell therapy, and vaccines, indicating a strategic diversification beyond metabolic medicine.
- New Oncology Platform: By acquiring Kelonia Therapeutics, Lilly deepens its position in oncology cell therapy, with an upfront payment of $3.3 billion and potential milestone payments of up to $7 billion, which could drive future growth.
- Expansion in Blood Cancer: The acquisition of Ajax Therapeutics will provide Lilly with a JAK2 inhibitor for bone marrow cancer, with a total deal value of up to $2.3 billion, enhancing its technological and data capabilities in blood cancer treatment.
- Breakthrough in Sleep Medicine: The $6.3 billion acquisition of Centessa Pharmaceuticals grants Lilly access to advanced clinical assets for treating narcolepsy, marking a significant advancement in sleep medicine and expected to substantially enhance the company's product portfolio.
See More
Regeneron and Amgen's Promising Weight Loss Candidates
- Clinical Trial Progress: Regeneron plans to initiate phase 3 clinical trials for its weight-loss candidate olatorepatide this year, which demonstrated up to 19% weight loss in a 48-week study in China, indicating significant potential in the weight loss market; approval in the U.S. could further boost the company's revenue growth.
- Strong Financial Performance: Regeneron's revenue surged by 19% year-over-year to $3.6 billion in Q1, showcasing resilience despite biosimilar competition for Eylea, with sales of a new high-dose formulation growing rapidly, reflecting the company's adaptability in the biopharmaceutical sector.
- Amgen's Competitive Edge: Amgen is conducting phase 3 studies for its anti-obesity drug MariTide, which targets chronic weight management, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular outcomes; approval across multiple indications could pose a substantial challenge to market leaders, driving future revenue growth for the company.
- Dividend Appeal: Amgen has increased its dividends annually since 2011, currently offering a forward yield of 3%, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average, attracting long-term investors while providing additional income security for shareholders interested in weight-loss stocks.
See More
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- Regeneron Clinical Progress: Regeneron plans to initiate phase 3 trials for its weight-loss candidate olatorepatide this year, which demonstrated up to 19% weight loss in a 48-week study in China, indicating strong potential in the weight-loss market; approval in the U.S. could significantly boost the company's growth.
- Strong Financial Performance: Regeneron's revenue surged 19% year-over-year to $3.6 billion in Q1, and despite facing biosimilar competition for Eylea, the sales growth of a new high-dose formulation reflects a solid financial foundation beyond weight-loss drugs.
- Amgen's Drug Development: Amgen is conducting phase 3 studies for its anti-obesity drug MariTide, which, if approved, will target chronic weight management and type 2 diabetes, potentially positioning it as a formidable competitor to Zepbound and expanding market share.
- Stable Dividend Yield: Amgen's revenue rose 6% year-over-year to $8.6 billion in Q1, and despite losing patent exclusivity for denosumab, strong sales from other products like Tezspire and Tepezza, along with consistent dividend increases since 2011, make it attractive for long-term investors.
See More
Centessa Pharmaceuticals Acquisition by Eli Lilly Approved by Court
- Acquisition Approval: The High Court of Justice in England and Wales has sanctioned Eli Lilly's acquisition of Centessa Pharmaceuticals for approximately $7.8 billion, marking a significant legal milestone that is expected to enhance Lilly's market position in the biopharmaceutical sector.
- Shareholder Compensation Structure: Under the agreement, Centessa shareholders will receive $38.00 in cash per share along with a non-transferable contingent value right (CVR) worth up to $9.00, incentivizing shareholder support for the transaction and ensuring future milestone achievements.
- Transaction Timeline: The completion of the transaction and scheme implementation is expected to occur upon the court order being delivered to the Registrar of Companies on June 24, 2026, providing a clear timeline for stakeholders and ensuring smooth execution of the deal.
- Market Reaction: Centessa's American Depositary Shares (ADSs) are expected to trade for the final time on Nasdaq on June 23, 2026, with trading suspension before market opening on June 24, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding the acquisition.
See More
Anti-Obesity Drug Market Faces Potential Disruption
- Market Dominance: Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk dominate the U.S. obesity and diabetes treatment market with their GLP-1 drugs, creating a potential duopoly that presents opportunities for new entrants to challenge the status quo.
- Viking Therapeutics' Competitiveness: Viking Therapeutics' VK2735 shows promising early data in phase 2 trials, with participants losing up to 14.7% of their weight over 13 weeks, indicating its competitive edge in a market with limited share.
- Market Potential: If the anti-obesity drug market reaches $100 billion in the next decade, Viking only needs to capture 1% of the market to significantly boost its valuation, highlighting its potential threat to the revenues of Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
- Clinical Trial Progress: VK2735's phase 3 trials have just completed enrollment, with results expected by 2027; if these results confirm earlier data, it will greatly enhance its competitive position in the obesity drug market.
See More
Viking Therapeutics Aims to Disrupt Obesity Drug Market
- Competitive Candidate: Viking Therapeutics' VK2735 demonstrated strong early data in two phase 2 trials, with participants losing 14.7% and 12.2% of their weight over 13 weeks, indicating its potential to compete with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk in the obesity drug market.
- Market Share Opportunity: With a market cap of just $3.5 billion, capturing even 1% of the projected $100 billion weight-loss drug market could significantly elevate Viking's valuation, providing substantial returns for shareholders.
- Clinical Trial Progress: The phase 3 trials for the injectable formulation of VK2735 completed enrollment earlier this year, with top-line data not expected until 2027, while the oral formulation's phase 3 trial is anticipated to begin by the end of this year.
- Industry Competitive Landscape: Although VK2735 shows competitive potential in the short term, it must prove its long-term efficacy against late-stage candidates like Eli Lilly's retatrutide and Novo Nordisk's CagriSema to secure a foothold in the market.
See More
