TMC Stock Declines Amid Iran War Turmoil
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 08 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TMC?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Significant Stock Drop: TMC's stock fell 25.5% in March, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's 5.1% and Nasdaq's 4.8% declines, highlighting the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Market Sentiment Impact: Despite receiving positive news on March 9 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration regarding its exploration license application, TMC's stock was still heavily impacted by broader risk-off sentiment in the market.
- Financial Disclosure: In its fourth-quarter report released on March 27, TMC reported a loss of $0.08 per share with no revenue, operational expenses of $11.4 million, and cash and equivalents totaling $117.6 million, indicating financial pressure during its commercialization phase.
- Future Outlook: TMC anticipates receiving its commercial recovery permit within a year and plans to commence system commissioning in Q4 2027, which could lead to significant growth potential if commercialization timelines are met.
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Analyst Views on TMC
Wall Street analysts forecast TMC stock price to rise
3 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 5.660
Low
6.50
Averages
8.33
High
11.00
Current: 5.660
Low
6.50
Averages
8.33
High
11.00
About TMC
TMC the metals company Inc. is a deep-sea minerals exploration company. The Company is focused on the collection and processing of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in international waters of the Clarion Clipperton Zone in the Pacific Ocean (CCZ), located approximately 1,300 nautical miles southwest of San Diego, California. The CCZ is a geological submarine fracture zone of abyssal plains and other formations in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, with a length of around 4,500 miles that spans approximately 1,737,000 square miles. These nodules contain high grades of four metals (nickel, copper, cobalt, manganese) which can be used as feedstock for battery cathode precursors (nickel, cobalt and manganese sulfates, or intermediate nickel-copper-cobalt matte) for electric vehicles (EV) and energy storage markets; copper cathode for EV wiring, energy transmission and other applications, and manganese silicate for manganese alloy production required for steel production.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
TMC Emerges as a Key Player in Critical Minerals Market
- Increased Market Attention: Geopolitical uncertainty has boosted the critical minerals market, with TMC's stock rising 81% over the past year, despite a 50% pullback from its peak, indicating growing interest from retail investors.
- Significant Regulatory Progress: In March 2023, TMC received positive feedback from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, confirming that its mining application is in substantial compliance with the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, laying the groundwork for future extraction activities.
- Massive Market Potential: TMC estimates the net present value of minerals in its targeted areas at $23.9 billion, and if it secures the necessary permits and successfully commercializes its operations, the company's valuation could skyrocket, despite currently having no sales.
- High-Risk Investment: With a market capitalization of approximately $2.2 billion and no recorded sales, TMC represents a high-risk buy, yet its potential returns in the critical minerals sector attract investor interest, especially as the U.S. prioritizes domestic sourcing of these resources.
See More
TMC The Metals Company Stock Volatility and Outlook
- Stock Volatility: TMC's share price has increased by 81% over the past year, yet it remains down 13.5% in 2026, highlighting its high-risk nature and the need for investors to carefully weigh potential rewards against risks.
- Retail Investor Support: A report from Stocktwits indicates that overall sentiment among retail traders has shifted from bearish to bullish, suggesting rising interest in TMC and the critical minerals market, which could provide support for the company's future growth.
- Regulatory Progress: In March, TMC received positive feedback from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, confirming that its mining application is in substantial compliance with the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, with expectations to obtain necessary exploration and extraction permits within the next year.
- Market Potential: The estimated net present value of minerals in TMC's targeted areas is $23.9 billion, and if the company successfully secures permits and demonstrates commercial viability, its valuation could significantly increase, despite ongoing uncertainties.
See More
TMC The Metals Company Faces Regulatory Opportunities
- Market Volatility and Growth Potential: Since going public in September 2021 through a SPAC merger, TMC The Metals Company has seen its stock price rise by 81% over the past year, yet it has pulled back 50% from its peak, indicating a mix of investor optimism and uncertainty regarding its future prospects.
- Retail Investor Sentiment Shift: A report from Stocktwits highlights a shift in sentiment among retail traders from bearish to bullish on TMC, despite the stock being down 17% this year, suggesting a growing interest in the critical minerals sector amid geopolitical changes.
- Regulatory Compliance Progress: In March, TMC received positive news from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, confirming that its mining application is in substantial compliance with the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, which positions the company to potentially secure exploration and extraction permits within the next year.
- Potential Value Assessment: TMC estimates the net present value of the minerals in its targeted extraction areas at $23.9 billion, and if it can successfully obtain permits and commercialize these resources, its valuation could significantly increase, although it remains a high-risk investment with considerable uncertainty.
See More
TMC Subsidiaries Submit Extensive Deep-Sea Data to ISA
- Data Submission Scale: TMC's subsidiaries NORI and TOML submitted extensive datasets to the International Seabed Authority covering 777 equipment deployments and over 4,800 environmental samples from 2013 to 2022, generating 76,000 biological records and 69,185 geochemical data points, showcasing the company's leadership in deep-sea mineral development.
- Environmental Monitoring Program: This data submission is part of TMC's $250 million environmental program, which has already supported 37 peer-reviewed publications, reflecting the company's comprehensive and scientific approach to deep-sea environmental monitoring and further solidifying its influence in the industry.
- Innovative Technology Application: TMC has reduced the environmental impact of its collection system through innovative technologies, with a new video series demonstrating how the data addresses environmental concerns, indicating the company's commitment to sustainability and technological advantage.
- Support for Scientific Research: TMC's dataset has been downloaded nearly 10,000 times, with biological records accounting for 54% of the OBIS database, and this share is expected to increase significantly with the publication of new data, further promoting scientific research and sustainable development of deep-sea mineral resources.
See More
REalloys Secures Funding for Heavy Rare Earth Facility
- Successful Financing: REalloys has secured $50 million through a public offering to build North America's largest heavy rare earth metallization facility, expected to produce 30 tonnes of terbium and 15 tonnes of dysprosium annually, significantly enhancing U.S. self-sufficiency in rare earths and reducing dependence on China.
- Technological Innovation: The facility will utilize a proprietary AI-driven control system to improve metal production purity and efficiency, aiming for initial operations in early 2027, with annual output projected to reach 400 tonnes and scale up to 600 tonnes by 2028-29, thereby strengthening the stability of the U.S. defense supply chain.
- Policy Impact: Starting January 1, 2027, the U.S. Department of Defense will ban the use of Chinese-origin rare earth materials, and REalloys' facility will provide compliant rare earth metals for defense customers, ensuring material supply for U.S. weapon systems, which holds significant strategic importance.
- Market Outlook: With increasing global demand for rare earths, REalloys' facility is poised to not only meet domestic needs but also potentially capture a share of the international market, enhancing the competitiveness of the U.S. in the rare earth supply chain.
See More
Rare Earth Minerals Emerge as Pillars of Global Economy
- Market Growth Potential: The global rare earth elements market was valued at approximately $3.95 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about $6.28 billion by 2030, implying a solid ~8.6% CAGR, highlighting the industry's strategic importance in electric vehicles and clean energy.
- Geopolitical Impact: With China accounting for roughly 60% of global rare earth production and processing, the U.S. and its allies are aggressively investing in domestic supply chains, creating a multi-year investment cycle that transforms the rare earth sector into a policy-driven growth market.
- SAGA Acquisition Project: SAGA Metals Corp. has signed an agreement to acquire the Wolverine heavy rare earth project in Labrador, which shows mineralization potential similar to Strange Lake and Tanbreez, expected to enhance the company's strategic position in North American supply security and defense priorities.
- Mineralization Potential Confirmation: The 2025 reverse circulation drilling confirmed rare earth mineralization across a 1.7 km × 1.2 km area, with key intercepts showing grades up to 2.03% TREO, indicating significant resource definition potential that supports future drilling and development plans.
See More
TMC Emerges as a Key Player in Critical Minerals Market
- Increased Market Attention: Geopolitical uncertainty has boosted the critical minerals market, with TMC's stock rising 81% over the past year, despite a 50% pullback from its peak, indicating growing interest from retail investors.
- Significant Regulatory Progress: In March 2023, TMC received positive feedback from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, confirming that its mining application is in substantial compliance with the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, laying the groundwork for future extraction activities.
- Massive Market Potential: TMC estimates the net present value of minerals in its targeted areas at $23.9 billion, and if it secures the necessary permits and successfully commercializes its operations, the company's valuation could skyrocket, despite currently having no sales.
- High-Risk Investment: With a market capitalization of approximately $2.2 billion and no recorded sales, TMC represents a high-risk buy, yet its potential returns in the critical minerals sector attract investor interest, especially as the U.S. prioritizes domestic sourcing of these resources.
See More
TMC The Metals Company Stock Volatility and Outlook
- Stock Volatility: TMC's share price has increased by 81% over the past year, yet it remains down 13.5% in 2026, highlighting its high-risk nature and the need for investors to carefully weigh potential rewards against risks.
- Retail Investor Support: A report from Stocktwits indicates that overall sentiment among retail traders has shifted from bearish to bullish, suggesting rising interest in TMC and the critical minerals market, which could provide support for the company's future growth.
- Regulatory Progress: In March, TMC received positive feedback from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, confirming that its mining application is in substantial compliance with the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, with expectations to obtain necessary exploration and extraction permits within the next year.
- Market Potential: The estimated net present value of minerals in TMC's targeted areas is $23.9 billion, and if the company successfully secures permits and demonstrates commercial viability, its valuation could significantly increase, despite ongoing uncertainties.
See More
TMC The Metals Company Faces Regulatory Opportunities
- Market Volatility and Growth Potential: Since going public in September 2021 through a SPAC merger, TMC The Metals Company has seen its stock price rise by 81% over the past year, yet it has pulled back 50% from its peak, indicating a mix of investor optimism and uncertainty regarding its future prospects.
- Retail Investor Sentiment Shift: A report from Stocktwits highlights a shift in sentiment among retail traders from bearish to bullish on TMC, despite the stock being down 17% this year, suggesting a growing interest in the critical minerals sector amid geopolitical changes.
- Regulatory Compliance Progress: In March, TMC received positive news from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, confirming that its mining application is in substantial compliance with the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, which positions the company to potentially secure exploration and extraction permits within the next year.
- Potential Value Assessment: TMC estimates the net present value of the minerals in its targeted extraction areas at $23.9 billion, and if it can successfully obtain permits and commercialize these resources, its valuation could significantly increase, although it remains a high-risk investment with considerable uncertainty.
See More
TMC Subsidiaries Submit Extensive Deep-Sea Data to ISA
- Data Submission Scale: TMC's subsidiaries NORI and TOML submitted extensive datasets to the International Seabed Authority covering 777 equipment deployments and over 4,800 environmental samples from 2013 to 2022, generating 76,000 biological records and 69,185 geochemical data points, showcasing the company's leadership in deep-sea mineral development.
- Environmental Monitoring Program: This data submission is part of TMC's $250 million environmental program, which has already supported 37 peer-reviewed publications, reflecting the company's comprehensive and scientific approach to deep-sea environmental monitoring and further solidifying its influence in the industry.
- Innovative Technology Application: TMC has reduced the environmental impact of its collection system through innovative technologies, with a new video series demonstrating how the data addresses environmental concerns, indicating the company's commitment to sustainability and technological advantage.
- Support for Scientific Research: TMC's dataset has been downloaded nearly 10,000 times, with biological records accounting for 54% of the OBIS database, and this share is expected to increase significantly with the publication of new data, further promoting scientific research and sustainable development of deep-sea mineral resources.
See More
REalloys Secures Funding for Heavy Rare Earth Facility
- Successful Financing: REalloys has secured $50 million through a public offering to build North America's largest heavy rare earth metallization facility, expected to produce 30 tonnes of terbium and 15 tonnes of dysprosium annually, significantly enhancing U.S. self-sufficiency in rare earths and reducing dependence on China.
- Technological Innovation: The facility will utilize a proprietary AI-driven control system to improve metal production purity and efficiency, aiming for initial operations in early 2027, with annual output projected to reach 400 tonnes and scale up to 600 tonnes by 2028-29, thereby strengthening the stability of the U.S. defense supply chain.
- Policy Impact: Starting January 1, 2027, the U.S. Department of Defense will ban the use of Chinese-origin rare earth materials, and REalloys' facility will provide compliant rare earth metals for defense customers, ensuring material supply for U.S. weapon systems, which holds significant strategic importance.
- Market Outlook: With increasing global demand for rare earths, REalloys' facility is poised to not only meet domestic needs but also potentially capture a share of the international market, enhancing the competitiveness of the U.S. in the rare earth supply chain.
See More
Rare Earth Minerals Emerge as Pillars of Global Economy
- Market Growth Potential: The global rare earth elements market was valued at approximately $3.95 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about $6.28 billion by 2030, implying a solid ~8.6% CAGR, highlighting the industry's strategic importance in electric vehicles and clean energy.
- Geopolitical Impact: With China accounting for roughly 60% of global rare earth production and processing, the U.S. and its allies are aggressively investing in domestic supply chains, creating a multi-year investment cycle that transforms the rare earth sector into a policy-driven growth market.
- SAGA Acquisition Project: SAGA Metals Corp. has signed an agreement to acquire the Wolverine heavy rare earth project in Labrador, which shows mineralization potential similar to Strange Lake and Tanbreez, expected to enhance the company's strategic position in North American supply security and defense priorities.
- Mineralization Potential Confirmation: The 2025 reverse circulation drilling confirmed rare earth mineralization across a 1.7 km × 1.2 km area, with key intercepts showing grades up to 2.03% TREO, indicating significant resource definition potential that supports future drilling and development plans.
See More
