The Mortgage Market Reclaims Its Momentum
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Sep 22 2025
0mins
Should l Buy UPST?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
Mortgage Market Activity: The podcast discusses a significant surge in mortgage refinancing and new loan activity due to a drop in average mortgage rates to 6.49%, with refinancing activity up 34% year-over-year, indicating a potential thaw in the housing market.
Oracle's Earnings Report: Oracle's stock saw a dramatic increase of 40% following a strong earnings report, highlighted by a 359% growth in remaining performance obligations, suggesting robust future demand, although concerns about the costs associated with infrastructure growth were also raised.
ETF Milestone: The podcast notes that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have surpassed the number of individual stocks listed on exchanges, reflecting a shift in investor preference towards lower-cost investment options, with discussions on the implications of this trend.
Investment Insights: Contributors share their stock picks influenced by current market conditions, with mentions of Rocket Companies and Upstart as potential beneficiaries of the housing market recovery, and discussions on ETFs like the Defiance Quantum ETF and Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF as attractive investment opportunities.
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Analyst Views on UPST
Wall Street analysts forecast UPST stock price to rise
13 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
2 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 28.700
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
Current: 28.700
Low
20.00
Averages
56.73
High
80.00
About UPST
Upstart Holdings, Inc. is an artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace. The Company’s platform includes personal loans, automotive retail and refinance loans, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and small dollar loans. It applies artificial intelligence models and cloud applications to the process of underwriting consumer credit. Its AI marketplace connects consumers with its lending partner. Its consumers can access Upstart-powered loans via Upstart.com, through a lender-branded product on its lending partners’ own websites, and through auto dealerships that use its Upstart Auto Retail software. Its platform enables lenders provide a product their customers want, rather than letting customers seek loans from competitors. Its cloud-based software platform incorporates technologies and software development approaches to allow for development of new features, such as cloud-native technologies, data integrity and security, and configurable multi-tenant architecture, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Upstart Reports 44% Revenue Growth in Q1 2026
- Significant Revenue Growth: Upstart reported Q1 2026 revenue of $308 million, reflecting a 44% year-over-year increase, although it fell short of Wall Street expectations, indicating strong performance in loan originations.
- Surge in Loan Originations: The company achieved total loan originations of $3.4 billion, up 77% year-over-year, with auto loan originations skyrocketing over 300%, demonstrating Upstart's effective expansion of its dealer network.
- Profitability Challenges: Despite exceeding revenue expectations, Upstart reported a loss per share of $0.07, significantly below analysts' forecast of $0.43 earnings per share, with management attributing this to seasonal headwinds while emphasizing future growth potential.
- Optimistic Outlook: Upstart reiterated its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $1.4 billion and projected a 35% annualized growth rate from 2025 to 2028, reflecting strong confidence in its market position and growth trajectory.
See More
Class Action Notice for Upstart Holdings Investors
- Class Action Deadline: Rosen Law Firm reminds investors who purchased Upstart Holdings securities between May 14, 2025, and November 4, 2025, that they must apply to be lead plaintiffs by June 8, 2026, or risk losing their right to compensation.
- No Out-of-Pocket Fees: Investors participating in the class action can receive compensation without any upfront costs through a contingency fee arrangement, which alleviates financial burdens and encourages more affected investors to join the lawsuit.
- False Statement Allegations: The lawsuit alleges that Upstart made false and misleading statements during the class period, particularly regarding the accuracy of its Model 22's risk-separation processes and loan approval rates, leading investors to misunderstand the company's financial health and impacting its revenue guidance for 2025.
- Law Firm Credentials: Rosen Law Firm specializes in securities class actions and has recovered over $438 million for investors in 2019 alone, being ranked first by ISS for the number of securities class action settlements in 2017, demonstrating its expertise and successful track record in this field.
See More
Upstart Reports Q1 Revenue Beat Amid Margin Compression
- Significant Revenue Growth: Upstart's Q1 loan originations surged 61% to $3.4 billion, with transaction volume rising 77% to 425,356 loans, driving total revenue up 44% to $308.2 million, exceeding market expectations of $303 million, showcasing the company's robust performance in the lending sector.
- Soaring Marketing Expenses: Despite revenue growth, Upstart's sales and marketing expenses nearly doubled to $104.4 million, leading to a GAAP operating loss widening from $4.5 million to $7.5 million, reflecting the pressure from increased investments aimed at driving growth.
- Narrowing Profit Margins: The adjusted EBITDA margin decreased from 20% to 13%, and GAAP loss per share widened from $0.03 to $0.07, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability while pursuing revenue growth.
- Optimistic Outlook: Despite the weak Q1 results, Upstart maintains its full-year revenue guidance at $1.4 billion, a 34.5% increase, and expects adjusted EBITDA of $294 million, up 28%, demonstrating confidence in improving margins moving forward.
See More
April Short Interest Analysis in Financial Stocks
- Short Selling Trends: In April, short interest was highest in fintech, transaction-driven payments, alternative asset managers, and mortgage-exposed businesses, indicating market concerns over credit quality and economic sensitivity, which could impact financing costs and investor confidence in these sectors.
- Diversified Financial Services Performance: In contrast to heavily shorted sectors, diversified financial services, insurance-led models, and large brokerage platforms experienced limited shorting, reflecting their strong earnings and capital positions, potentially providing investors with a higher margin of safety.
- Most Shorted Stocks: As of the end of April, the top five most shorted stocks included Upstart Holdings (29.12%), Shift4 Payments (18.52%), Blue Owl Capital (17.93%), Flagstar Bank (15.15%), and PagSeguro Digital (15.04%), with high short ratios likely leading to increased stock price volatility.
- Least Shorted Stocks: Conversely, Brookfield Wealth Solutions (0.68%), Mastercard (0.74%), Berkshire Hathaway (0.77%), Hagerty (0.78%), and Charles Schwab (0.79%) had very low short interest, indicating strong market confidence in these companies, which may attract more long-term investors.
See More
Upstart Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Revenue Growth Outlook: Upstart expects total revenues of approximately $1.4 billion for 2026, with fee revenue around $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $294 million, equating to 21% of total revenues, indicating strong growth potential under a stable macroeconomic backdrop.
- Significant Loan Originations: In Q1, loan originations reached $3.4 billion, up 61% year-over-year and 8% sequentially, with personal loan originations growing by 6%, reflecting the company's robust performance amid recovering market demand.
- New Product Launch: Upstart launched its first unsecured revolving credit product, Cash Line, aimed at expanding its customer base and enhancing revenue streams, although it remains in the early stages, potentially leading to new growth opportunities.
- Seasonal Loss and Profitability Expectations: Despite a net loss of approximately $7 million in Q1 and a GAAP EPS of negative $0.07, management reiterated full-year profitability expectations, emphasizing that the core personal loans business will serve as the profit engine, demonstrating confidence in future performance.
See More
UPSTART HOLDINGS INC: PIPER SANDLER LOWERS TARGET PRICE FROM $56 TO $46
- Target Price Adjustment: Piper Sandler has reduced the target price for Upstart Holdings from $56 to $46.
- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects changes in market conditions and expectations for Upstart's performance.
See More
Upstart Reports 44% Revenue Growth in Q1 2026
- Significant Revenue Growth: Upstart reported Q1 2026 revenue of $308 million, reflecting a 44% year-over-year increase, although it fell short of Wall Street expectations, indicating strong performance in loan originations.
- Surge in Loan Originations: The company achieved total loan originations of $3.4 billion, up 77% year-over-year, with auto loan originations skyrocketing over 300%, demonstrating Upstart's effective expansion of its dealer network.
- Profitability Challenges: Despite exceeding revenue expectations, Upstart reported a loss per share of $0.07, significantly below analysts' forecast of $0.43 earnings per share, with management attributing this to seasonal headwinds while emphasizing future growth potential.
- Optimistic Outlook: Upstart reiterated its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $1.4 billion and projected a 35% annualized growth rate from 2025 to 2028, reflecting strong confidence in its market position and growth trajectory.
See More
Class Action Notice for Upstart Holdings Investors
- Class Action Deadline: Rosen Law Firm reminds investors who purchased Upstart Holdings securities between May 14, 2025, and November 4, 2025, that they must apply to be lead plaintiffs by June 8, 2026, or risk losing their right to compensation.
- No Out-of-Pocket Fees: Investors participating in the class action can receive compensation without any upfront costs through a contingency fee arrangement, which alleviates financial burdens and encourages more affected investors to join the lawsuit.
- False Statement Allegations: The lawsuit alleges that Upstart made false and misleading statements during the class period, particularly regarding the accuracy of its Model 22's risk-separation processes and loan approval rates, leading investors to misunderstand the company's financial health and impacting its revenue guidance for 2025.
- Law Firm Credentials: Rosen Law Firm specializes in securities class actions and has recovered over $438 million for investors in 2019 alone, being ranked first by ISS for the number of securities class action settlements in 2017, demonstrating its expertise and successful track record in this field.
See More
Upstart Reports Q1 Revenue Beat Amid Margin Compression
- Significant Revenue Growth: Upstart's Q1 loan originations surged 61% to $3.4 billion, with transaction volume rising 77% to 425,356 loans, driving total revenue up 44% to $308.2 million, exceeding market expectations of $303 million, showcasing the company's robust performance in the lending sector.
- Soaring Marketing Expenses: Despite revenue growth, Upstart's sales and marketing expenses nearly doubled to $104.4 million, leading to a GAAP operating loss widening from $4.5 million to $7.5 million, reflecting the pressure from increased investments aimed at driving growth.
- Narrowing Profit Margins: The adjusted EBITDA margin decreased from 20% to 13%, and GAAP loss per share widened from $0.03 to $0.07, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability while pursuing revenue growth.
- Optimistic Outlook: Despite the weak Q1 results, Upstart maintains its full-year revenue guidance at $1.4 billion, a 34.5% increase, and expects adjusted EBITDA of $294 million, up 28%, demonstrating confidence in improving margins moving forward.
See More
April Short Interest Analysis in Financial Stocks
- Short Selling Trends: In April, short interest was highest in fintech, transaction-driven payments, alternative asset managers, and mortgage-exposed businesses, indicating market concerns over credit quality and economic sensitivity, which could impact financing costs and investor confidence in these sectors.
- Diversified Financial Services Performance: In contrast to heavily shorted sectors, diversified financial services, insurance-led models, and large brokerage platforms experienced limited shorting, reflecting their strong earnings and capital positions, potentially providing investors with a higher margin of safety.
- Most Shorted Stocks: As of the end of April, the top five most shorted stocks included Upstart Holdings (29.12%), Shift4 Payments (18.52%), Blue Owl Capital (17.93%), Flagstar Bank (15.15%), and PagSeguro Digital (15.04%), with high short ratios likely leading to increased stock price volatility.
- Least Shorted Stocks: Conversely, Brookfield Wealth Solutions (0.68%), Mastercard (0.74%), Berkshire Hathaway (0.77%), Hagerty (0.78%), and Charles Schwab (0.79%) had very low short interest, indicating strong market confidence in these companies, which may attract more long-term investors.
See More
Upstart Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Revenue Growth Outlook: Upstart expects total revenues of approximately $1.4 billion for 2026, with fee revenue around $1.3 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $294 million, equating to 21% of total revenues, indicating strong growth potential under a stable macroeconomic backdrop.
- Significant Loan Originations: In Q1, loan originations reached $3.4 billion, up 61% year-over-year and 8% sequentially, with personal loan originations growing by 6%, reflecting the company's robust performance amid recovering market demand.
- New Product Launch: Upstart launched its first unsecured revolving credit product, Cash Line, aimed at expanding its customer base and enhancing revenue streams, although it remains in the early stages, potentially leading to new growth opportunities.
- Seasonal Loss and Profitability Expectations: Despite a net loss of approximately $7 million in Q1 and a GAAP EPS of negative $0.07, management reiterated full-year profitability expectations, emphasizing that the core personal loans business will serve as the profit engine, demonstrating confidence in future performance.
See More
UPSTART HOLDINGS INC: PIPER SANDLER LOWERS TARGET PRICE FROM $56 TO $46
- Target Price Adjustment: Piper Sandler has reduced the target price for Upstart Holdings from $56 to $46.
- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects changes in market conditions and expectations for Upstart's performance.
See More
