The Math Shows FYX Can Go To $115
ETF Analyst Target Prices: The First Trust Small Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund ETF (FYX) has an implied analyst target price of $114.51, indicating an 18.44% upside from its current trading price of $96.68 per unit.
Notable Holdings with Upside Potential: Key underlying holdings like Rumble Inc, Helios Technologies Inc, and ICF International Inc show significant potential for growth, with expected price increases of 60.77%, 46.08%, and 35.55% respectively based on analyst targets.
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- Executive Participation: ICF's President Anne Choate and Senior VP David Pickles will participate in a virtual fireside chat on March 12 at 8:00 AM ET, showcasing the company's leadership in sustainability.
- Live Webcast: The chat will be available via live webcast, with a replay accessible for 90 days post-event, ensuring broader audience engagement and enhancing the company's influence on sustainability topics.
- Company Background: ICF is a leading global solutions and technology provider with approximately 9,000 employees, dedicated to assisting public and private sector clients in navigating complex challenges, demonstrating strong industry expertise and innovative capabilities.
- Forward-Looking Statements: ICF cautions investors about the risks associated with forward-looking statements, including reliance on U.S. federal government contracts and business integration challenges, emphasizing a cautious approach in uncertain environments.
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: ICF International has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.14 per share, consistent with previous distributions, indicating the company's stable cash flow and shareholder return strategy, which is expected to bolster investor confidence.
- Dividend Yield: The forward yield of this dividend stands at 0.7%, which, while relatively low, still offers appeal to income-seeking investors, reflecting the company's resilience in the current market environment.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend is payable on April 14, with a record date of March 27 and an ex-dividend date also set for March 27, ensuring that shareholders receive timely returns and enhancing their willingness to hold shares.
- Future Growth Target: ICF International aims for over 10% non-federal revenue growth in 2026, particularly through expansion in the commercial energy sector, demonstrating the company's positive outlook and strategic positioning for future market opportunities.
- Revenue Growth Outlook: ICF International projects 2026 revenues between $1.89 billion and $1.96 billion, reflecting approximately 3% growth year-over-year, with non-federal clients expected to account for over 60% of total revenues, indicating strong growth potential in the non-federal market.
- Commercial Energy Performance: Revenues from commercial energy clients grew by 24% in 2025, reaching nearly $550 million in Q4, reinforcing ICF's market leadership with a 35% share in residential energy efficiency, showcasing its competitive strength in the energy sector.
- Financial Resilience: Total revenue for Q4 was $443.7 million, down 10.6% year-over-year, yet the adjusted EBITDA margin remained stable at 10.4%, demonstrating the company's resilience and profitability amid challenging conditions.
- Strong Business Pipeline: ICF's business development pipeline stands at $8.6 billion with a backlog of $3.4 billion, highlighting the company's growth potential and market opportunities, particularly in IT modernization and non-federal client sectors.
- Earnings Miss: ICF International reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.47, missing expectations by $0.02, indicating potential pressure on profitability that may affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The company generated $444 million in revenue, a 10.5% year-over-year decline, although it beat market expectations by $3.1 million, the ongoing revenue drop could pose challenges to future growth prospects.
- New Contract Wins: ICF secured $300 million in new contracts in Europe, which not only strengthens its market position but also provides new revenue growth opportunities, showcasing the company's capability in international market expansion.
- Market Sentiment: Despite revenue exceeding expectations, the earnings miss may lead to cautious market sentiment regarding ICF International's short-term performance, prompting investors to monitor future performance improvement measures.
Leadership Change: Scott Strazik took over as head of General Electric’s energy business, GE Vernova, in 2021.
Business Transformation: The electricity business has undergone significant changes since Strazik's appointment, reflecting a different operational landscape.









