Ternium Q4 2025 Earnings Report Analysis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 18 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TX?
Source: seekingalpha
- Disappointing Earnings: Ternium reported a GAAP EPS of $0.62 for Q4 2025, missing estimates by $0.28, indicating pressure on profitability that could affect investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The fourth-quarter revenue of $3.77 billion represents a 2.8% year-over-year decrease, falling short of expectations, reflecting weak market demand that may lead to future performance challenges.
- Stable Adjusted EBITDA: Despite the revenue drop, adjusted EBITDA slightly decreased to $395 million, indicating some cost control capabilities, but overall profitability remains a concern.
- Optimistic Outlook: Ternium anticipates an increase in adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026, primarily driven by rising shipments in Mexico, demonstrating the company's confidence in market recovery.
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Analyst Views on TX
Wall Street analysts forecast TX stock price to fall
4 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 42.300
Low
39.00
Averages
40.13
High
41.00
Current: 42.300
Low
39.00
Averages
40.13
High
41.00
About TX
Ternium S.A. is a producer of steel products. The Company produces finished and semi-finished steel products and iron ore, which are sold either directly to steel manufacturers, steel processors or end users. The Company operates through two segments: Steel and Mining. The Steel segment includes the sales of steel products, and the Mining segment includes the sales of iron ore products, which are primarily inter-company. The Steel segment comprises three operating segments: Mexico, the Southern Region, and Other Markets. In the steel segment, steel products include slabs, billets, and round bars (steel in its basic, semi-finished state), hot-rolled coils and sheets, bars and stirrups, wire rods, cold-rolled coils and sheets, tin plate, hot dipped galvanized and electrogalvanized sheets and pre-painted sheets, steel pipes and tubular products, beams, roll-formed products, and other products. In the mining segment, iron ore is sold as concentrates (fines) and pellets.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Ternium Declares $1.30 Interim Dividend Per ADS
- Dividend Announcement: Ternium has declared an interim dividend of $1.30 per American Depositary Share (ADS), reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to stable cash flow and shareholder returns, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend is set to be paid on May 15, with a record date of May 14 and an ex-dividend date also on May 14, providing shareholders with a clear timeline that enhances market confidence in the company's dividend policy.
- Dividend Growth Potential: The dividend growth is closely tied to Ternium's strong financial performance, as a robust steel manufacturer, the company not only offers growth opportunities but also provides a stable income source for investors, further solidifying its position in the industry.
- Market Reaction: Following BofA's upgrade of Ternium to a “Buy” rating, market perception of the company as a “solid option” for investing in U.S. flat steel has improved, indicating analysts' optimistic outlook on the company's future performance.
See More
TERNIUM SA: BOARD AMENDS FY2025 DIVIDEND PROPOSAL, REDUCING RECOMMENDED PAYOUT TO $2.20 PER ADS FROM $2.70 PER ADS
- Dividend Proposal Revision: Ternium has revised its dividend proposal for FY 2025, lowering the recommended payout.
- New Dividend Amount: The new proposed dividend is set at $2.20 per ADS, down from the previously announced $2.70 per ADS.
See More
Bank of America Upgrades Ternium to Buy with $47.50 Target
- Rating Upgrade: Bank of America upgraded Ternium from Neutral to Buy with a price target increase from $46 to $47.50, reflecting optimism about stronger-than-expected North American flat steel pricing, which is expected to drive the company's stock price higher.
- Capital Spending Inflection: Analysts highlighted that 2027 marks a capital spending inflection point for Ternium, as the completion of the Pesquería expansion is projected to yield approximately 10% free cash flow, enhancing the company's financial health and investment appeal.
- Trade Policy Beneficiary: Ternium is seen as a primary beneficiary of a potential USMCA renegotiation, which could lead to exemptions from U.S. tariffs, thereby further enhancing its market competitiveness and profitability.
- Industry Comparison: Bank of America also reiterated its Buy rating on Gerdau, noting its strong performance in North America and a backlog of approximately 90 days, indicating the company's relative strength in the industry.
See More
Latest Wall Street Ratings Overview
- Tesla Rating Maintained: Wells Fargo reiterates its underweight rating on Tesla ahead of earnings, indicating a cautious outlook due to limited progress on Robotaxi and Optimus, suggesting a strategic pivot towards Semi and Roadster could be necessary for future growth.
- Starbucks Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgrades Starbucks from sell to hold, citing stabilization in the U.S. market, and while the stock trades at a high premium, the expectation of more realistic earnings estimates reflects a more optimistic view on the company's future performance.
- Nokia Transformation: Bank of America upgrades Nokia from neutral to buy, highlighting its transition into an optical powerhouse, which positions the company favorably in the telecom equipment market and suggests significant growth potential ahead.
- Chime Financial Rating Initiated: Wells Fargo initiates coverage on Chime Financial with an overweight rating, recognizing its strong growth and profitability in the digital banking sector, and anticipates a positive impact from the upcoming tax season.
See More
Gerdau Upgraded, Ternium Downgraded Amid Global Steel Market Turmoil
- Gerdau Upgrade: Scotiabank upgraded Gerdau (GGB) from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform, as analyst Alfonso Salazar sees an attractive risk/reward profile, expecting strong North American results bolstered by effective steel tariffs protecting domestic producers.
- Free Cash Flow Outlook: Salazar estimates Gerdau's (GGB) free cash flow yield will average 12.1% from 2026 to 2028, with improved generation as investments in Brazil and North America decline, leading to attractive shareholder distributions through dividends and buybacks.
- Ternium Downgrade: In contrast, Scotiabank downgraded Ternium (TX) from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform, citing a lack of conditions for a swift renegotiation of the USMCA agreement and concerns that U.S. steel tariffs from the Trump administration may persist.
- Market Uncertainty: The ongoing uncertainty surrounding USMCA may lead to questions about the economics of Ternium's (TX) investments in Mexico, as the benefits from increased integration could take longer than anticipated to materialize, dampening expectations for new investments.
See More
Contrarian Capital Reduces Stake in Core Natural Resources
- Stake Reduction Details: Contrarian Capital Management reduced its stake in Core Natural Resources by 187,676 shares in Q4 2026, resulting in a decrease to 0.7359% of the fund's 13F assets, indicating a waning market confidence in the stock.
- Financial Impact Analysis: This reduction led to a decline in the quarter-end value of Core Natural Resources by approximately $15.51 million, highlighting how both market price movements and share sales have affected the company's market performance.
- Market Performance Comparison: As of February 13, 2026, Core Natural Resources shares were priced at $91.51, reflecting an 8.03% increase over the past year, yet underperforming the S&P 500 by 3.76 percentage points, suggesting insufficient market competitiveness.
- Investor Outlook: The coal market has stabilized post-global energy shock, and Core's future earnings will depend on whether coal prices remain above production costs, making it crucial for investors to monitor this gap to assess the sustainability of the company's cash flow.
See More
Ternium Declares $1.30 Interim Dividend Per ADS
- Dividend Announcement: Ternium has declared an interim dividend of $1.30 per American Depositary Share (ADS), reflecting the company's ongoing commitment to stable cash flow and shareholder returns, which is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend is set to be paid on May 15, with a record date of May 14 and an ex-dividend date also on May 14, providing shareholders with a clear timeline that enhances market confidence in the company's dividend policy.
- Dividend Growth Potential: The dividend growth is closely tied to Ternium's strong financial performance, as a robust steel manufacturer, the company not only offers growth opportunities but also provides a stable income source for investors, further solidifying its position in the industry.
- Market Reaction: Following BofA's upgrade of Ternium to a “Buy” rating, market perception of the company as a “solid option” for investing in U.S. flat steel has improved, indicating analysts' optimistic outlook on the company's future performance.
See More
TERNIUM SA: BOARD AMENDS FY2025 DIVIDEND PROPOSAL, REDUCING RECOMMENDED PAYOUT TO $2.20 PER ADS FROM $2.70 PER ADS
- Dividend Proposal Revision: Ternium has revised its dividend proposal for FY 2025, lowering the recommended payout.
- New Dividend Amount: The new proposed dividend is set at $2.20 per ADS, down from the previously announced $2.70 per ADS.
See More
Bank of America Upgrades Ternium to Buy with $47.50 Target
- Rating Upgrade: Bank of America upgraded Ternium from Neutral to Buy with a price target increase from $46 to $47.50, reflecting optimism about stronger-than-expected North American flat steel pricing, which is expected to drive the company's stock price higher.
- Capital Spending Inflection: Analysts highlighted that 2027 marks a capital spending inflection point for Ternium, as the completion of the Pesquería expansion is projected to yield approximately 10% free cash flow, enhancing the company's financial health and investment appeal.
- Trade Policy Beneficiary: Ternium is seen as a primary beneficiary of a potential USMCA renegotiation, which could lead to exemptions from U.S. tariffs, thereby further enhancing its market competitiveness and profitability.
- Industry Comparison: Bank of America also reiterated its Buy rating on Gerdau, noting its strong performance in North America and a backlog of approximately 90 days, indicating the company's relative strength in the industry.
See More
Latest Wall Street Ratings Overview
- Tesla Rating Maintained: Wells Fargo reiterates its underweight rating on Tesla ahead of earnings, indicating a cautious outlook due to limited progress on Robotaxi and Optimus, suggesting a strategic pivot towards Semi and Roadster could be necessary for future growth.
- Starbucks Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgrades Starbucks from sell to hold, citing stabilization in the U.S. market, and while the stock trades at a high premium, the expectation of more realistic earnings estimates reflects a more optimistic view on the company's future performance.
- Nokia Transformation: Bank of America upgrades Nokia from neutral to buy, highlighting its transition into an optical powerhouse, which positions the company favorably in the telecom equipment market and suggests significant growth potential ahead.
- Chime Financial Rating Initiated: Wells Fargo initiates coverage on Chime Financial with an overweight rating, recognizing its strong growth and profitability in the digital banking sector, and anticipates a positive impact from the upcoming tax season.
See More
Gerdau Upgraded, Ternium Downgraded Amid Global Steel Market Turmoil
- Gerdau Upgrade: Scotiabank upgraded Gerdau (GGB) from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform, as analyst Alfonso Salazar sees an attractive risk/reward profile, expecting strong North American results bolstered by effective steel tariffs protecting domestic producers.
- Free Cash Flow Outlook: Salazar estimates Gerdau's (GGB) free cash flow yield will average 12.1% from 2026 to 2028, with improved generation as investments in Brazil and North America decline, leading to attractive shareholder distributions through dividends and buybacks.
- Ternium Downgrade: In contrast, Scotiabank downgraded Ternium (TX) from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform, citing a lack of conditions for a swift renegotiation of the USMCA agreement and concerns that U.S. steel tariffs from the Trump administration may persist.
- Market Uncertainty: The ongoing uncertainty surrounding USMCA may lead to questions about the economics of Ternium's (TX) investments in Mexico, as the benefits from increased integration could take longer than anticipated to materialize, dampening expectations for new investments.
See More
Contrarian Capital Reduces Stake in Core Natural Resources
- Stake Reduction Details: Contrarian Capital Management reduced its stake in Core Natural Resources by 187,676 shares in Q4 2026, resulting in a decrease to 0.7359% of the fund's 13F assets, indicating a waning market confidence in the stock.
- Financial Impact Analysis: This reduction led to a decline in the quarter-end value of Core Natural Resources by approximately $15.51 million, highlighting how both market price movements and share sales have affected the company's market performance.
- Market Performance Comparison: As of February 13, 2026, Core Natural Resources shares were priced at $91.51, reflecting an 8.03% increase over the past year, yet underperforming the S&P 500 by 3.76 percentage points, suggesting insufficient market competitiveness.
- Investor Outlook: The coal market has stabilized post-global energy shock, and Core's future earnings will depend on whether coal prices remain above production costs, making it crucial for investors to monitor this gap to assess the sustainability of the company's cash flow.
See More
