Taiwan Semiconductor Gains Government Support, Faces Trump's Tariff Threats, Cheaper Chinese Rivals
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 29 2025
0mins
Should l Buy TSM?
Source: Benzinga
Taiwan's Government Support: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) is expected to receive potential support from the Taiwanese government in response to U.S. tariff threats, with discussions on cooperative plans and assistance programs underway.
Economic Impact and Investments: TSMC has made significant investments in the U.S., totaling $65 billion, and reported a substantial increase in trade surplus with the U.S., while also planning a capex increase for fiscal 2025.
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Analyst Views on TSM
Wall Street analysts forecast TSM stock price to fall
8 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 368.100
Low
63.24
Averages
313.46
High
390.00
Current: 368.100
Low
63.24
Averages
313.46
High
390.00
About TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd is a Taiwan-based integrated circuit foundry service provider. The Company is primarily engaged in integrated circuit manufacturing services. It offers advanced process technologies, specialised process solutions, advanced photomask and silicon stacking, and packaging-related technologies, while supporting a comprehensive design ecosystem. The Company's products serve diverse electronic sectors including artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, wired and wireless communications, automotive and industrial equipment, personal computing, information applications, consumer electronics, smart internet of things, and wearable devices.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
TSMC Controls 99% of AI Processor Foundry Market
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- Revenue Growth Momentum: In 2025, TSMC achieved a 36% revenue increase to $122.4 billion, with January 2026 revenue growing nearly 37% year-over-year, indicating potential to exceed its 30% growth target and boosting investor confidence.
- AI Chip Market Outlook: RBC Capital Markets projects AI chip sales to rise from $220 billion last year to over $550 billion by 2028, placing TSMC in a prime position to capitalize on this lucrative market as the preferred foundry for AI chip designs.
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- Strong Financial Performance: In Q4, TSMC reported revenue of $33.7 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share rising 35% to $3.14, while gross and operating margins improved to 59.9% and 50.8%, respectively, indicating enhanced profitability during expansion.
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- Alphabet's Gemini Success: Alphabet's Gemini chatbot now boasts 750 million monthly active users, a 67% increase from nine months ago, and has secured a partnership with Apple to make Gemini the underlying AI model for an upcoming version of Siri, which is expected to generate billions in revenue for Alphabet.
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- Alphabet's AI Success: Alphabet's Gemini chatbot has reached 750 million monthly active users, a 67% increase in nine months, and its collaboration with Apple to integrate Gemini into Siri is expected to generate billions in revenue, further boosting its cloud computing growth.
- Taiwan Semiconductor's Competitive Edge: Holding a 70% market share in the global semiconductor market, TSMC's advanced chip manufacturing and high yield rates position it well, with projected revenue growth of 30% to $122.4 billion by 2025, reflecting strong performance amid surging AI processor demand.
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See More
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- Market Dominance: TSMC controls 99% of the foundry market for AI server compute and custom AI processors, positioning itself as a critical technology enabler for emerging AI giants like Anthropic, thereby solidifying its leadership in the semiconductor industry.
- Revenue Growth Momentum: In 2025, TSMC achieved a 36% revenue increase to $122.4 billion, with January 2026 revenue growing nearly 37% year-over-year, indicating potential to exceed its 30% growth target and boosting investor confidence.
- AI Chip Market Outlook: RBC Capital Markets projects AI chip sales to rise from $220 billion last year to over $550 billion by 2028, placing TSMC in a prime position to capitalize on this lucrative market as the preferred foundry for AI chip designs.
- Investment Appeal: TSMC's forward earnings multiple of 26 aligns closely with the Nasdaq-100 index, and its earnings are expected to grow faster than the broader market, suggesting that investors are unlikely to go wrong with this semiconductor giant.
See More
S&P 500 Index Achieves Three Years of Strong Performance
- Market Performance Review: The S&P 500 has achieved double-digit gains for three consecutive years, reflecting the ongoing bull market that has attracted significant investment into growth stocks like AI and quantum computing, although overall market momentum has recently slowed.
- Interest Rate Policy Impact: Following the Fed's interest rate cuts that began in 2024, the recent decision to hold rates steady has heightened investor concerns over uncertainty, leading to diminished confidence in tech stocks, despite strong earnings reports from companies like Meta and Taiwan Semiconductor.
- Valuation Level Warning: The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio has surpassed 39, a level only reached once before, just prior to the dot-com bubble burst, indicating that current market valuations are high and may signal potential future correction risks.
- Historical Trend Analysis: Historical data shows that the S&P 500 typically declines after reaching peak valuations, although such declines are not always long-lasting; investors should focus on a long-term strategy of holding quality stocks to navigate short-term market fluctuations.
See More
Goldman Sachs Updates 10-Year Global Equity Forecast
- Optimistic European Outlook: Goldman Sachs projects a 7.5% annual return for European stocks over the next decade, driven by strong earnings growth and a dividend yield of about 3%, which is likely to attract more investor interest in the European market.
- Emerging Market Potential: Emerging market stocks are expected to return 12.8% annually, primarily supported by robust earnings growth in China and India, highlighting the significance and appeal of these markets in the global economy.
- Vanguard ETF Advantages: The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF boasts an expense ratio of just 0.06%, significantly lower than the average 0.81% for similar funds, providing investors with a cost-effective avenue for European stock exposure, thereby enhancing its market competitiveness.
- US vs. European Stocks: While US stocks outperformed European stocks over the past decade, Goldman believes that due to high valuations in the US market, European stocks may surpass them in the next decade, prompting investors to reassess their asset allocation strategies.
See More
TSMC on Track to Join $3 Trillion Club
- Market Position Solidified: TSMC's current market capitalization stands at $1.9 trillion, and as the world's largest semiconductor foundry with a 71% share of the global chip market, investors could see a 58% return if it secures membership in the $3 trillion club.
- Strong Financial Performance: In Q4, TSMC reported revenue of $33.7 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share rising 35% to $3.14, while gross and operating margins improved to 59.9% and 50.8%, respectively, indicating enhanced profitability during expansion.
- Future Growth Expectations: Management forecasts first-quarter revenue of $35.2 billion, representing a 38% year-over-year growth, suggesting that the company will continue to thrive amid rising demand for high-end semiconductors.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: Annual sales of high-end semiconductors are projected to approach $1 trillion by 2026, positioning TSMC to benefit from this trend, with analysts predicting revenues of $193.9 billion and $232.8 billion in 2027 and 2028, respectively.
See More
Three Tech Giants Set to Benefit from AI Surge
- Nvidia's Market Leadership: As a leading designer of AI processors, Nvidia is poised to benefit from the increasing spending on AI data center infrastructure, particularly as Alphabet and Meta ramp up capital expenditures to $185 billion and $135 billion respectively, driving demand for Nvidia's processors.
- Alphabet's Gemini Success: Alphabet's Gemini chatbot now boasts 750 million monthly active users, a 67% increase from nine months ago, and has secured a partnership with Apple to make Gemini the underlying AI model for an upcoming version of Siri, which is expected to generate billions in revenue for Alphabet.
- Taiwan Semiconductor's Market Share: Taiwan Semiconductor holds a 70% share of the global semiconductor manufacturing market, with revenue projected to increase by 30% to $122.4 billion by 2025, and diluted earnings expected to rise by 47% to $10.65 per ADR, showcasing its strong performance amid surging AI processor demand.
- Long-Term Competitive Advantage: Research from Morningstar indicates that TSMC's organic growth driven by major tech trends could last for decades, with management confidently forecasting a 30% increase in sales this year, further solidifying its market position.
See More
Three Tech Stocks Worth Holding Long-Term
- Nvidia's Market Position: As the leading designer of AI processors, Nvidia's stock remains attractive despite bubble concerns, with a current P/E ratio of 47, slightly above the tech sector average of 43, indicating strong demand amid increasing AI infrastructure spending.
- Alphabet's AI Success: Alphabet's Gemini chatbot has reached 750 million monthly active users, a 67% increase in nine months, and its collaboration with Apple to integrate Gemini into Siri is expected to generate billions in revenue, further boosting its cloud computing growth.
- Taiwan Semiconductor's Competitive Edge: Holding a 70% market share in the global semiconductor market, TSMC's advanced chip manufacturing and high yield rates position it well, with projected revenue growth of 30% to $122.4 billion by 2025, reflecting strong performance amid surging AI processor demand.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: All three companies excel in the AI sector, with reasonable P/E ratios of 47, 30, and 34 for Nvidia, Alphabet, and TSMC respectively, suggesting that investors can expect substantial returns over the coming years.
See More
