Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu Opens to Lowest Ticket Sales in Franchise History
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 22 2026
0mins
Source: Newsfilter
- Record Low Pre-Sales: According to Comscore, 'Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu' achieved only $12 million in Thursday night previews, marking the lowest advanced ticket sales in franchise history, previously held by 'Solo: A Star Wars Story' at $14.1 million.
- Opening Weekend Projections: Box office analysts estimate the film will generate around $80 million over its three-day opening weekend and approximately $95 million during the four-day Memorial Day holiday, indicating one of the weakest openings for a 'Star Wars' film in modern cinematic history.
- Market Competition and Opportunities: Despite facing limited competition, the film may benefit from the popularity of the television series and the extended holiday weekend; however, its performance will serve as a stress test for future 'Star Wars' theatrical releases amid a lackluster cinema run for the franchise and Marvel.
- Consumer Products Potential: Beyond box office revenue, Disney is expected to gain from a robust consumer products launch tied to the film, particularly with Grogu's popularity among fans, which could drive retail sales significantly, reminiscent of Hasbro's nearly $500 million in sales following the 2015 release of 'The Force Awakens.'
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Analyst Views on DIS
Wall Street analysts forecast DIS stock price to rise
19 Analyst Rating
16 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 99.500
Low
123.00
Averages
137.29
High
152.00
Current: 99.500
Low
123.00
Averages
137.29
High
152.00
About DIS
The Walt Disney Company is a diversified worldwide entertainment company. The Company's segments include Entertainment, Sports and Experiences. The Entertainment segment generally encompasses its non-sports focused global film and episodic content production and distribution activities. The lines of business within the Entertainment segment along with their business activities include Linear Networks, Direct-to-Consumer, and Content Sales/Licensing. The Sports segment encompasses its sports-focused global television and direct-to-consumer (DTC) video streaming content production and distribution activities. The lines of business within the Sports segment include ESPN and Star. The Experiences segment includes Parks and Experiences and Consumer Products. Parks and Experiences consists of Walt Disney World Resort in Florida, Disneyland Resort in California, Disney Cruise Line, and others. Consumer Products includes licensing of its trade names, characters, visual, literary and other IP.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Attractive Valuation: As of now, Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) has a forward P/E ratio of just 12.9, which is a notable 40% discount compared to the S&P 500, highlighting the stock's appeal in the current market, especially given its strong intellectual property portfolio.
- Earnings Growth Expectations: Management anticipates adjusted earnings per share to grow by 12% this fiscal year, with double-digit growth expected in fiscal 2027, and analysts predict a 10% increase in fiscal 2028, providing potential return momentum for investors.
- Diversified Business Strength: Despite the decline in cable TV, Disney's theme parks and cruise businesses continue to grow, while its direct-to-consumer streaming services like Disney+ and Hulu maintain strong positions in the industry, showcasing the company's success in diversifying its business.
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- Significant Cost Reduction: Particle6 claims that using Norwood instead of human actors can slash production costs by 90%, which may appeal more to film studios' profit motives than to the objections of actors.
- Value of Human Artistry: A spokesperson from the SAG-AFTRA actors' union argues that AI lacks life experience and emotion, suggesting that audiences may not be interested in computer-generated content disconnected from human experience, raising doubts about AI's applicability in film.
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See More
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- Spin-off Discussions Raise Concerns: While analysts have considered separating Disney's parks business, this segment accounts for a significant portion of the company's operating income, suggesting that a spin-off could actually hurt the stock price, prompting investors to carefully assess the potential risks of such a move.
- Financial Data Reveals Challenges: In the first half of fiscal 2026, Disney's revenue rose 6% year-over-year to $51 billion, with the entertainment segment increasing by 8%, while the parks division contributed $5.9 billion in operating income, highlighting its critical role in the company's overall financial health.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Although Disney Experiences is the only segment to report operating income growth in the current fiscal year, the long-term challenges posed by streaming competition and insufficient content development cast a shadow over the overall stock outlook, necessitating investor attention to the company's strategic adjustments.
See More
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- Parks Division Growth: Despite overall revenue stagnation, Disney's parks division reported a 6% revenue increase in the first half of fiscal 2026, contributing $5.9 billion to the company's operating income, making it the only segment to show growth and highlighting its resilience in the current market environment.
- Controversial Spin-Off Discussions: Some analysts have suggested spinning off the parks business; however, given the synergies between the parks and content divisions, such a move could undermine Disney's overall value and potentially lead to stock sell-offs by investors.
- Content Development Challenges: Disney faces significant challenges in content creation, as evidenced by its reliance on the success of
See More
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- Price Target Adjustment: Raymond James has lowered Disney's price target from $119 to $111, yet the revised target still suggests an upside potential of approximately 11.5%, reflecting analysts' optimism about the company's long-term performance.
- Retail Investor Sentiment: Retail investors on Stocktwits are expressing ‘extremely bullish’ sentiments towards Disney's stock, with many believing the shares are undervalued, particularly in light of the upcoming AI advertising agent launch.
- Market Outlook Analysis: Despite challenges related to short-term park attendance, Wall Street remains largely bullish on Disney's growth potential, with JPMorgan recently raising its price target to $140, demonstrating confidence in its direct-to-consumer channels.
See More
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- Box Office Performance: Over the Fourth of July holiday, ‘Minions & Monsters’ topped the box office with an estimated $61.4 million, although its traditional three-day weekend earnings of $36.7 million indicate a decline in franchise strength.
- Franchise Fatigue: The film's opening marks the lowest in the Despicable Me/Minions series, which has grossed over $5.6 billion globally, suggesting potential audience fatigue according to industry analysts.
- Profit Potential: With a production budget of approximately $85 million, the film is well-positioned to turn a profit if it maintains the strong legs typical of family releases, despite its disappointing opening.
- Market Trends: The holiday weekend capped one of the strongest summer box office seasons since before the pandemic, with family-friendly releases continuing to drive theater attendance, indicating a recovery in the market.
See More
