Nomura Upgrades Nio to Buy with $6.60 Price Target
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 10 2026
0mins
Nomura upgraded Nio to Buy from Neutral with a $6.60 price target. Nio is improving from a business and financial perspective over the past two quarters, and the firm believes that Nio is finally entering into a healthy business cycle, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Nomura is cutting Nio's 2026-27 shipments but still forecasting 25% shipment CAGR for 2025-2028.
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Analyst Views on NIO
Wall Street analysts forecast NIO stock price to rise
7 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 5.020
Low
4.00
Averages
5.90
High
7.00
Current: 5.020
Low
4.00
Averages
5.90
High
7.00
About NIO
NIO Inc is a holding company mainly engaged in the design, development, manufacturing and sales of smart electric vehicles. The Company offers premium smart electric vehicles under the NIO brand, family-oriented smart electric vehicles through the ONVO brand, and small smart high-end electric cars with the FIREFLY brand. The Company focuses on building in-house capabilities including battery swapping, assisted and intelligent driving, digital technologies, electric powertrain and battery, vehicle engineering and design, among others, to control the design and development of the vehicle software and hardware architecture and the critical components.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Delivery Volume Growth: In May, Firefly delivered 5,663 vehicles, accounting for 15% of Nio's total deliveries, with a total of 22,226 vehicles delivered in the first five months of 2026, indicating strong market performance and growth potential.
- Market Positioning: Firefly plans to expand into nearly 40 countries, with Hong Kong potentially becoming the next distributor-led market, as Nio aims to reduce costs through partnerships with local entities, a strategy already successful in Singapore and Thailand.
- Future Targets: Firefly surpassed 50,000 cumulative deliveries in March and aims for 100,000 by year-end, with CEO William Li emphasizing a cautious approach to overseas expansion to improve return on investment.
See More
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- Sales Growth Amidst Challenges: Nio delivered 37,705 vehicles in May 2026, marking a 62.3% year-over-year increase, and year-to-date deliveries reached 150,526 vehicles, up nearly 69%, showcasing its robust sales performance despite a struggling domestic market.
- Significant Contribution from Sub-brands: Nio's sub-brands, Onvo and Firefly, delivered 12,029 and 5,663 vehicles respectively, further enhancing overall sales and indicating the success of its multi-brand strategy in capturing market share.
- Improved Gross Margin: The vehicle gross margin for Nio in Q1 was 18.8%, a significant increase from 10.2% in the same quarter last year, reflecting improvements in cost control and operational efficiency despite domestic market pressures.
- Cautious Future Outlook: While Nio shows strong delivery and margin performance, it is expected to face market fluctuations in the second half of 2026, and investors should monitor whether it can achieve its full-year adjusted operating profit target, which will be crucial for sustained growth amid challenges.
See More
Nio Defies Domestic Decline with Strong Delivery Growth
- Delivery Growth: Nio delivered 37,705 vehicles in May 2026, marking a 62.3% year-over-year increase, and its year-to-date deliveries reached 150,526 vehicles, up nearly 69%, indicating strong growth potential despite a challenging market environment.
- Margin Improvement: The company's vehicle margin for Q1 stood at 18.8%, significantly up from 10.2% in the same quarter last year and better than the 18.1% margin in Q4 2025, reflecting effective cost control and efficiency enhancements.
- Market Challenges: Despite Nio's strong performance, China's overall NEV sales plummeted 38% in April, driven by new vehicle taxes, reduced subsidies, and an economic slowdown, leading to cautious consumer sentiment that could impact future sales.
- Export Strategy Lag: Nio's slower pace in exporting vehicles overseas, while its sub-brands Onvo and Firefly begin to contribute to deliveries, may not fully offset domestic market weaknesses in the short term, prompting investors to watch for the company's ability to achieve its full-year adjusted operating profit guidance in the second half of the year.
See More
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- Market Growth Outlook: Grand View Research forecasts a 26.7% CAGR for the global EV market from 2026 to 2033, indicating strong growth potential despite challenges such as reduced government subsidies and supply chain disruptions.
- Rivian's Production Issues: Rivian's stock has plummeted from $78 in 2021 to around $16 today, yet it anticipates delivering 62,000-67,000 vehicles in 2023; however, production challenges and high starting prices have limited its market appeal, resulting in a market cap of only $20 billion.
- Nio's Market Share Growth: Nio's annual deliveries surged from 43,728 in 2020 to 326,028 by 2025, with its current stock price at $5, while its share in China's premium EV market continues to expand, projecting revenues nearing $25.8 billion by 2028.
- Improving Profitability: Nio has recently spun off its unprofitable chip-making segment, reducing operating costs, and has maintained profitability over the past two quarters, with analysts expecting it to achieve its first full-year profit in 2027, suggesting significant undervaluation of its stock.
See More
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- Production and Sales Challenges: Despite producing 57,232 vehicles in 2023, Rivian anticipates a decline in production for 2024 and 2025 due to supply chain issues and increased competition, reflecting uncertainty in its market position.
- Nio's Market Expansion: Nio aims to nearly double its annual revenue to 174.4 billion yuan ($25.8 billion) from 2025 to 2028 by launching its ONVO and Firefly sub-brands, showcasing growth potential in China's premium EV market.
- Improving Profitability: Nio has remained profitable for the past two quarters and is expected to achieve its first full-year profit in 2027, indicating success in cost control and market share enhancement, which may attract more investor interest.
See More
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