MicroStrategy Faces Potential MSCI Exclusion, Risking Up to $9 Billion in Demand
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 19 2025
0mins
Should l Buy MSTR?
Source: Newsfilter
- Potential Exclusion Impact: MSCI's proposal to exclude companies with digital assets over 50% could lead to MicroStrategy facing up to $9 billion in demand loss, severely impacting its market appeal.
- Market Value Fluctuation: Analysts estimate that $2.5 billion of MicroStrategy's market value is derived from MSCI, and exclusion could trigger $2.8 billion in stock outflows, exacerbating the company's financial strain.
- Industry Reaction: The MSCI proposal has sparked widespread concern, with expectations that other index providers may follow suit, potentially 'chilling' the entire digital asset treasury sector.
- Passive Investment Impact: Passive asset managers hold about 30% of a large-cap company's free float, and exclusion from MSCI could trigger significant outflows, affecting MicroStrategy's funding capabilities and competitive position.
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Analyst Views on MSTR
Wall Street analysts forecast MSTR stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 138.950
Low
229.00
Averages
453.17
High
705.00
Current: 138.950
Low
229.00
Averages
453.17
High
705.00
About MSTR
Strategy Inc., formerly MicroStrategy Incorporated, is a bitcoin treasury and business intelligence company. The Company provides cloud-native, artificial intelligence (AI)-powered enterprise analytics software to thousands of global customers. The Company’s Strategy ONE platform provides access to AI-powered workflows, unlimited data sources, cloud-native technologies, and performance to speed up time from data to action. Strategy One delivers visualization, reporting, and embedded analytics capabilities across retail, banking, technology, manufacturing, insurance, consulting, healthcare, telecommunications, and the public sector. Its Strategy Mosaic is a universal intelligence layer that provides enterprises with consistent definitions and governance across data sources, regardless of where that data resides or which tools access it. The Strategy Mosaic offers data clarity and connection by eliminating trade-offs between flexibility, control, and speed.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Long-term Strategy: Strategy Inc. aims to consistently increase its Bitcoin holdings over time, with a focus on creating value for shareholders through a dual-pronged approach that leverages both equity and credit markets.
Market Confidence: The premium on Strategy's stock reflects investor confidence in its operational strategy and ability to generate value, distinguishing it from traditional Bitcoin holdings and indicating a strong long-term outlook for the company.
See More
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- Bitcoin Acquisition Funding: The trading activity funded an estimated purchase of 1,420 BTC for Strategy's Bitcoin accumulation strategy, reflecting the company's proactive positioning in the cryptocurrency market, which may enhance the value of its asset portfolio.
- Increased Dividend Rate: Strategy raised the dividend rate on STRC to 11.5% with monthly cash distributions, aiming to keep shares trading close to their $100 par value, thereby reducing price volatility and boosting investor confidence.
- Sales Agreement Amendment: The amendment to Strategy's Omnibus Sales Agreement allows multiple agents to sell the same class of securities on a single trading day, enhancing operational flexibility that could accelerate Bitcoin purchases during optimal market conditions, thereby improving competitive positioning.
See More
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- Oil Price Plunge: WTI crude oil prices dropped by 12% following President Trump's assertion that the Iran war is 'pretty much' over, which not only alleviates inflationary pressures on the US economy but may also influence the Fed's monetary policy direction.
- Strong Home Sales: February existing home sales in the US rose by 1.7% month-over-month to 4.09 million, exceeding market expectations of 3.88 million, indicating resilience in the housing market that could support the stock market.
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See More
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- Market Stress Test: Analyst Fedor Shabalin noted that the DATCO model faced a stress test, with BTC peaking at $126,000 in October 2025 before falling to approximately $69,000 by March 2026, compressing mNAV premiums across the sector and impacting equity accretion for most DATCOs.
- Capital Structure Advantage: MSTR and ASST are well-positioned to navigate the current environment through their differentiated capital structures and disciplined BTC accumulation strategies, with both companies having established dedicated cash reserves to support preferred obligations, ensuring near-term dividend sustainability.
- Long-Term Appreciation Potential: Beyond attractive dividend yields, the analyst believes that investors in both common and preferred securities can benefit from the potential long-term appreciation of underlying BTC holdings, a value creation mechanism that MSTR has demonstrated over six years of BTC accumulation.
See More
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- Strong Home Sales Data: February existing home sales in the US rose 1.7% month-over-month to 4.09 million, exceeding expectations of 3.88 million, indicating resilience in the housing market that could further support stock performance.
- Iran Situation Impact: Despite increased Iranian attacks in the Persian Gulf causing the largest refinery in the UAE to halt operations, oil prices have fallen to $84 per barrel due to President Trump's comments, reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Corporate Earnings Situation: With over 95% of S&P 500 companies having reported earnings, 74% exceeded expectations, and Q4 earnings growth is projected at 8.4%, providing support for the stock market and indicating sustained corporate profitability growth potential.
See More
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MicroStrategy (MSTR): MicroStrategy's stock rose by 1.86%, now trading at $141.54.
Circle (CRCL): Circle's stock experienced a significant increase of 8.05%, currently trading at $120.73.
Riot Blockchain (RIOT) and Bit Digital Inc. (BTBT): Riot Blockchain's stock rose by 1.29% to $14.89, while Bit Digital Inc. increased by 2.95%, trading at $21.315.
See More
