NIO falls short of Q3 revenue expectations and provides Q4 forecast
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 25 2025
0mins
Should l Buy NIO?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Q3 Financial Performance: NIO reported a Q3 2025 non-GAAP EPS of -$0.15, beating expectations by $0.07, while total revenue reached $3.06 billion, missing estimates by $80 million.
Vehicle Sales and Deliveries: Vehicle sales amounted to RMB19.2 billion, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase, with deliveries reaching 87,071 units, a 40.8% increase from Q3 2024.
Margins Improvement: The vehicle margin improved to 14.7% in Q3 2025, up from 13.1% in Q3 2024, while gross margin also increased to 13.9% compared to 10.7% in the previous year.
Q4 2025 Projections: NIO anticipates vehicle deliveries between 120,000 and 125,000, and total revenues between RMB32.76 billion and RMB34.04 billion, indicating significant growth compared to Q4 2024.
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Analyst Views on NIO
Wall Street analysts forecast NIO stock price to rise
7 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
4 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 4.950
Low
4.00
Averages
5.90
High
7.00
Current: 4.950
Low
4.00
Averages
5.90
High
7.00
About NIO
NIO Inc is a holding company mainly engaged in the design, development, manufacturing and sales of smart electric vehicles. The Company offers premium smart electric vehicles under the NIO brand, family-oriented smart electric vehicles through the ONVO brand, and small smart high-end electric cars with the FIREFLY brand. The Company focuses on building in-house capabilities including battery swapping, assisted and intelligent driving, digital technologies, electric powertrain and battery, vehicle engineering and design, among others, to control the design and development of the vehicle software and hardware architecture and the critical components.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Nio Reports Delivery Growth and Profit Expectations
- Significant Delivery Growth: Nio's deliveries approached 125,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, marking a 71.7% year-over-year increase, with December deliveries reaching 48,135 units, up 54.6% from the previous year, indicating strong sales momentum driven by its new brands Onvo and Firefly, enhancing market competitiveness.
- Rising Gross Margins: Nio's gross profit margins have steadily improved over the past few years, and despite its new brands being priced lower than the flagship brand, the company anticipates achieving an adjusted operating profit of between $100 million and $172 million in Q4 2025, signaling a positive shift in financial health.
- Battery Swap Network Challenges: While Nio's battery swapping network could potentially become a competitive advantage, its significant upfront investment and ongoing operational costs currently weigh on financials, especially as alternative fast-charging options gain traction in the market, posing profitability challenges.
- Investor Confidence Boost: Nio's announcement of its first adjusted operating profit has bolstered investor optimism about its future, particularly as the company aims for breakeven in 2026, despite the competitive pressures it faces from rivals in the electric vehicle sector.
See More
Analysis of Current Electric Vehicle Market Trends
- Sales Growth: Global EV sales surged 21% in 2025, with a notable 33% increase in Europe, indicating strong demand that could enhance market share for related companies.
- China's Market Dominance: EV sales in China grew by 19%, with Tesla holding a 4.4% market share, surpassing Nio, which highlights increasing competitive pressure on Nio in a rapidly consolidating market.
- Challenges for Nio: Nio reported a 15% year-over-year increase in vehicle sales in the latest quarter, yet its net losses reached $488.9 million, indicating a precarious position amid market consolidation and a lack of profitability.
- Rivian's Market Opportunity: Rivian ranks sixth in the U.S. market, achieving an 8% revenue growth in 2025, and while still unprofitable, it is approaching profitability faster than Nio, suggesting a stronger competitive position.
See More
Nio Anticipates First Adjusted Profit Amidst Challenges
- First Adjusted Profit: Nio anticipates reporting its first adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for Q4 2025, marking a significant step towards achieving at least breakeven for the full year 2026.
- Significant Sales Growth: In Q4 2025, Nio's sales surged 71.7% year-over-year to nearly 125,000 vehicles, with December deliveries also rising 54.6% to a new high of 48,135 units, indicating strong traction for its new brands Onvo and Firefly.
- Improving Gross Margins: Despite the financial strain from its battery swapping network, Nio has consistently improved its gross profit margin, currently at 11.25%, which lays a foundation for future profitability.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: While Nio's gross margins are improving, its operating margins lag behind competitors due to the high operational costs of its battery swapping network, which may impact its long-term profitability.
See More
French President Celebrates Successful Rocket Launch of 32 Amazon Leo Satellites
- Successful Rocket Launch: The French president celebrated the successful launch of Europe's most powerful rocket, which deployed 32 Amazon Leo satellites into orbit, marking a significant advancement in Europe's space capabilities and enhancing its competitiveness in the global space market.
- Pause on Tech Security Measures: Ahead of the Trump-Xi Jinping meeting, the Trump administration reportedly paused several critical technology security measures targeting China, a decision that could influence the future trajectory of U.S.-China tech relations and reduce market uncertainties.
- Apple Court Victory: Apple secured a courtroom win as a jury rejected claims from Optis Wireless that it infringed on 4G wireless patents, a result that will help protect Apple's intellectual property and strengthen its market position.
- AI Industry Developments: Elon Musk criticized AI startup Anthropic for alleged bias while announcing a $30 billion funding round that pushed its valuation to $380 billion, highlighting the intense competition and rapid evolution within the AI sector.
See More
Analysis of Electric Vehicle Market Prospects
- Lucid Delivery Growth: Lucid delivered 15,841 vehicles in 2025, marking a 55% increase year-over-year, with over one-third of deliveries occurring in Q4, indicating strong market demand despite ongoing profitability challenges.
- Production Capacity Improvement: Lucid's Q4 production surged 116% sequentially and 148% year-over-year, demonstrating significant progress in resolving production bottlenecks, which is expected to further drive future delivery records.
- Nio Delivery Milestone: Nio's Q4 deliveries exceeded 326,000 vehicles, a nearly 72% increase year-over-year, with December achieving a new monthly high, showcasing robust growth momentum despite fierce price competition in the EV market.
- Profitability Outlook Enhancement: Nio anticipates an adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for Q4 2025, marking a significant step towards achieving the necessary scale for future profitability.
See More
Lucid and Nio Deliveries Surge Significantly
- Lucid Delivery Growth: Lucid delivered 15,841 vehicles in 2025, marking a 55% increase year-over-year, with over one-third of deliveries occurring in Q4, indicating strong momentum in the EV market despite ongoing profitability challenges.
- Production Capacity Boost: Lucid's Q4 production surged 116% sequentially and 148% year-over-year, demonstrating the company's ability to effectively ramp up production of its newly launched Gravity SUV after resolving bottlenecks, setting the stage for future delivery records.
- Nio Delivery Milestone: Nio delivered over 326,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, a nearly 72% increase year-over-year, achieving a new monthly delivery record in December, showcasing its robust growth potential in the EV market despite fierce price competition.
- Improved Profit Outlook: Nio is expected to achieve an adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for Q4 2025, marking a significant step towards proving its ability to achieve economies of scale and future profitability, although it still faces risks associated with its battery swap network strategy.
See More
Nio Reports Delivery Growth and Profit Expectations
- Significant Delivery Growth: Nio's deliveries approached 125,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, marking a 71.7% year-over-year increase, with December deliveries reaching 48,135 units, up 54.6% from the previous year, indicating strong sales momentum driven by its new brands Onvo and Firefly, enhancing market competitiveness.
- Rising Gross Margins: Nio's gross profit margins have steadily improved over the past few years, and despite its new brands being priced lower than the flagship brand, the company anticipates achieving an adjusted operating profit of between $100 million and $172 million in Q4 2025, signaling a positive shift in financial health.
- Battery Swap Network Challenges: While Nio's battery swapping network could potentially become a competitive advantage, its significant upfront investment and ongoing operational costs currently weigh on financials, especially as alternative fast-charging options gain traction in the market, posing profitability challenges.
- Investor Confidence Boost: Nio's announcement of its first adjusted operating profit has bolstered investor optimism about its future, particularly as the company aims for breakeven in 2026, despite the competitive pressures it faces from rivals in the electric vehicle sector.
See More
Analysis of Current Electric Vehicle Market Trends
- Sales Growth: Global EV sales surged 21% in 2025, with a notable 33% increase in Europe, indicating strong demand that could enhance market share for related companies.
- China's Market Dominance: EV sales in China grew by 19%, with Tesla holding a 4.4% market share, surpassing Nio, which highlights increasing competitive pressure on Nio in a rapidly consolidating market.
- Challenges for Nio: Nio reported a 15% year-over-year increase in vehicle sales in the latest quarter, yet its net losses reached $488.9 million, indicating a precarious position amid market consolidation and a lack of profitability.
- Rivian's Market Opportunity: Rivian ranks sixth in the U.S. market, achieving an 8% revenue growth in 2025, and while still unprofitable, it is approaching profitability faster than Nio, suggesting a stronger competitive position.
See More
Nio Anticipates First Adjusted Profit Amidst Challenges
- First Adjusted Profit: Nio anticipates reporting its first adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for Q4 2025, marking a significant step towards achieving at least breakeven for the full year 2026.
- Significant Sales Growth: In Q4 2025, Nio's sales surged 71.7% year-over-year to nearly 125,000 vehicles, with December deliveries also rising 54.6% to a new high of 48,135 units, indicating strong traction for its new brands Onvo and Firefly.
- Improving Gross Margins: Despite the financial strain from its battery swapping network, Nio has consistently improved its gross profit margin, currently at 11.25%, which lays a foundation for future profitability.
- Increased Competitive Pressure: While Nio's gross margins are improving, its operating margins lag behind competitors due to the high operational costs of its battery swapping network, which may impact its long-term profitability.
See More
French President Celebrates Successful Rocket Launch of 32 Amazon Leo Satellites
- Successful Rocket Launch: The French president celebrated the successful launch of Europe's most powerful rocket, which deployed 32 Amazon Leo satellites into orbit, marking a significant advancement in Europe's space capabilities and enhancing its competitiveness in the global space market.
- Pause on Tech Security Measures: Ahead of the Trump-Xi Jinping meeting, the Trump administration reportedly paused several critical technology security measures targeting China, a decision that could influence the future trajectory of U.S.-China tech relations and reduce market uncertainties.
- Apple Court Victory: Apple secured a courtroom win as a jury rejected claims from Optis Wireless that it infringed on 4G wireless patents, a result that will help protect Apple's intellectual property and strengthen its market position.
- AI Industry Developments: Elon Musk criticized AI startup Anthropic for alleged bias while announcing a $30 billion funding round that pushed its valuation to $380 billion, highlighting the intense competition and rapid evolution within the AI sector.
See More
Analysis of Electric Vehicle Market Prospects
- Lucid Delivery Growth: Lucid delivered 15,841 vehicles in 2025, marking a 55% increase year-over-year, with over one-third of deliveries occurring in Q4, indicating strong market demand despite ongoing profitability challenges.
- Production Capacity Improvement: Lucid's Q4 production surged 116% sequentially and 148% year-over-year, demonstrating significant progress in resolving production bottlenecks, which is expected to further drive future delivery records.
- Nio Delivery Milestone: Nio's Q4 deliveries exceeded 326,000 vehicles, a nearly 72% increase year-over-year, with December achieving a new monthly high, showcasing robust growth momentum despite fierce price competition in the EV market.
- Profitability Outlook Enhancement: Nio anticipates an adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for Q4 2025, marking a significant step towards achieving the necessary scale for future profitability.
See More
Lucid and Nio Deliveries Surge Significantly
- Lucid Delivery Growth: Lucid delivered 15,841 vehicles in 2025, marking a 55% increase year-over-year, with over one-third of deliveries occurring in Q4, indicating strong momentum in the EV market despite ongoing profitability challenges.
- Production Capacity Boost: Lucid's Q4 production surged 116% sequentially and 148% year-over-year, demonstrating the company's ability to effectively ramp up production of its newly launched Gravity SUV after resolving bottlenecks, setting the stage for future delivery records.
- Nio Delivery Milestone: Nio delivered over 326,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, a nearly 72% increase year-over-year, achieving a new monthly delivery record in December, showcasing its robust growth potential in the EV market despite fierce price competition.
- Improved Profit Outlook: Nio is expected to achieve an adjusted operating profit between $100 million and $172 million for Q4 2025, marking a significant step towards proving its ability to achieve economies of scale and future profitability, although it still faces risks associated with its battery swap network strategy.
See More
