Jefferies Upgrades Vistra Corp to Buy, Sees 30% Upside
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5 days ago
0mins
Source: CNBC
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Vistra Corp from hold to buy, arguing that the current share price does not accurately reflect the likelihood of future data center deals, indicating a potential undervaluation in the market.
- Price Target Increase: The investment bank raised Vistra's 12-month price target from $191 to $203, suggesting about a 30% upside from Monday's close, reflecting an optimistic outlook on the company's future growth prospects.
- Market Reaction: Vistra shares rose as much as 5.5% in early trading on Tuesday, indicating a positive market response to the upgrade, despite the stock being down approximately 25% since announcing a 1,200 megawatt power supply deal last September.
- Attractive Investment Opportunity: Jefferies analysts noted that while it is impossible to 'call bottom', the current market valuation of around $52 billion presents an attractive entry point for investors, especially given the strong demand for nuclear power from data center developers.
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Analyst Views on VST
Wall Street analysts forecast VST stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 163.100
Low
217.00
Averages
240.09
High
287.00
Current: 163.100
Low
217.00
Averages
240.09
High
287.00
About VST
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company that provides essential resources to customers, businesses, and communities from California to Maine. It operates a reliable power generation fleet of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities while taking an innovative, customer-centric approach to its retail business. Its segments include Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The Retail segment is engaged in retail sales of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial customers. The Texas and East segments are engaged in electricity generation, wholesale energy sales and purchases, commodity risk management activities, fuel procurement, and logistics management. The West segment represents results from the CAISO market, including its battery ESS projects at its Moss Landing power plant site. The Asset Closure segment is engaged in the decommissioning and reclamation of retired plants and mines.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Salesforce and Vistra See High Options Trading Volume
- Salesforce Options Activity: Salesforce Inc experienced options trading volume of 67,941 contracts, equating to approximately 6.8 million shares, which represents about 50.2% of its average daily trading volume of 13.5 million shares over the past month, indicating strong market interest in its future performance.
- High Strike Call Focus: Notably, the $200 strike call option expiring on February 20, 2026, saw 3,208 contracts traded today, representing around 320,800 underlying shares, suggesting investor expectations for a price increase in Salesforce stock.
- Vistra Options Activity: Vistra Corp recorded options trading volume of 31,185 contracts, translating to approximately 3.1 million shares, or about 48.9% of its average daily trading volume of 6.4 million shares over the past month, reflecting active market interest in its stock.
- Bullish Call Interest: The $180 strike call option expiring on March 20, 2026, had a trading volume of 3,295 contracts today, representing approximately 329,500 underlying shares, indicating investor confidence in a potential price rise for Vistra.
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Emerging Opportunities in Utility Stocks
- Stability and Cash Flow: Constellation Energy, the largest producer of carbon-free electricity in the U.S., reported a net income of $930 million last year, despite a year-over-year decline; however, its adjusted operating earnings improved from $860 million to $952 million, showcasing its steady cash flow and diversified energy portfolio.
- Price Volatility and Growth Potential: Vistra exhibits higher volatility with a beta of 1.44, and although its stock has slightly declined year-to-date, it trades at a reasonable forward P/E ratio of 15.5, indicating market optimism about its growth prospects, particularly due to its long-term nuclear agreement with Meta.
- Positive Signal from Buyback Policy: Vistra has completed $5.6 billion in share repurchases since 2021 and recently authorized an additional $1 billion, which is viewed as a bullish signal for long-term investors, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
- Diverse Investment Choices: Investors should choose stocks based on personal goals, with Constellation Energy being ideal for those seeking stability and cash flow, while Vistra may appeal to those willing to endure volatility for additional growth potential.
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Constellation Energy and Vistra: A Comparative Analysis
- Market Performance Decline: As of February 9, 2026, Constellation Energy's stock has fallen over 23%, reflecting market concerns about its profitability, although it still offers stable cash flow and a $1.55 annual dividend per share, making it attractive for income investors.
- Profitability Fluctuations: Constellation's adjusted operating earnings improved from $860 million in Q3 2024 to $952 million in 2025, despite a net income of $930 million, which decreased from the previous year, indicating that the company still needs to enhance operational efficiency to improve profitability metrics.
- Vistra's Diversification Advantage: Vistra's flexibility in the electricity market is evident in its diversified asset portfolio, including natural gas, nuclear, and renewable energy, while its long-term nuclear agreement with Meta has garnered investor interest, even though its stock has slightly declined year-to-date.
- Positive Buyback Policy: Vistra has completed $5.6 billion in share repurchases since 2021 and recently authorized another $1 billion, demonstrating confidence in future growth, although its higher volatility, with a beta of 1.44, requires investors to weigh risks against potential rewards.
See More
Jefferies Upgrades Vistra to Buy with $203 Price Target
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Vistra from Hold to Buy with a price target increase from $191 to $203, reflecting the analyst's optimism about future data center contracts despite a 25% stock drop since September.
- Cash Flow Appeal: The analyst highlighted that Vistra's free cash flow yield of approximately 12% for FY 2028 offers a compelling entry point compared to the 7%-8% yield seen over the past year, indicating a strong foundation for future growth potential.
- Market Dynamics Benefit: With heavy exposure to capacity markets and high electricity generation output, along with a large fleet of CCGTs, gas peakers, and nuclear plants, Vistra is expected to benefit from current positive power dynamics, with growth potential stemming from multiple factors rather than a single one.
- Development Opportunities: The analyst anticipates Vistra to articulate and quantify its opportunities for contracted brownfield development to unlock further equity value, and with over 10 GW in PJM and a large fleet, the company is seen as well-positioned for uprate and brownfield expansions to support growth.
See More
Jefferies Upgrades Vistra Corp to Buy, Sees 30% Upside
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Vistra Corp from hold to buy, arguing that the current share price does not accurately reflect the likelihood of future data center deals, indicating a potential undervaluation in the market.
- Price Target Increase: The investment bank raised Vistra's 12-month price target from $191 to $203, suggesting about a 30% upside from Monday's close, reflecting an optimistic outlook on the company's future growth prospects.
- Market Reaction: Vistra shares rose as much as 5.5% in early trading on Tuesday, indicating a positive market response to the upgrade, despite the stock being down approximately 25% since announcing a 1,200 megawatt power supply deal last September.
- Attractive Investment Opportunity: Jefferies analysts noted that while it is impossible to 'call bottom', the current market valuation of around $52 billion presents an attractive entry point for investors, especially given the strong demand for nuclear power from data center developers.
See More
Market Watch: Tech Stocks and Earnings Dynamics
- Chip Stock Focus: With Taiwan Semi reporting a 37% year-over-year sales increase, attention on chip stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom is rising, indicating a robust rebound in artificial intelligence demand that could drive stock performance.
- DuPont Earnings Beat: DuPont's fourth-quarter net sales, EBITDA, and adjusted EPS exceeded expectations, with adjusted EPS ranging from $2.25 to $2.30 compared to the consensus of $2.14, while management's 2026 outlook also surpassed market expectations, highlighting the company's strong growth potential.
- CVS Strong Quarter but Stock Drops: CVS reported an adjusted EPS of $1.09 for the fourth quarter, beating expectations of $0.99; however, the stock fell over 2% due to the full-year EPS midpoint being below market estimates, reflecting concerns about future profitability.
- Tesla Solar Investment Outlook: Morgan Stanley praised Tesla's decision to increase spending on solar manufacturing, estimating that Tesla Solar could add $20 billion to $50 billion in equity value to its energy valuation, demonstrating the company's strategic positioning in the renewable energy sector.
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Salesforce and Vistra See High Options Trading Volume
- Salesforce Options Activity: Salesforce Inc experienced options trading volume of 67,941 contracts, equating to approximately 6.8 million shares, which represents about 50.2% of its average daily trading volume of 13.5 million shares over the past month, indicating strong market interest in its future performance.
- High Strike Call Focus: Notably, the $200 strike call option expiring on February 20, 2026, saw 3,208 contracts traded today, representing around 320,800 underlying shares, suggesting investor expectations for a price increase in Salesforce stock.
- Vistra Options Activity: Vistra Corp recorded options trading volume of 31,185 contracts, translating to approximately 3.1 million shares, or about 48.9% of its average daily trading volume of 6.4 million shares over the past month, reflecting active market interest in its stock.
- Bullish Call Interest: The $180 strike call option expiring on March 20, 2026, had a trading volume of 3,295 contracts today, representing approximately 329,500 underlying shares, indicating investor confidence in a potential price rise for Vistra.
See More
Emerging Opportunities in Utility Stocks
- Stability and Cash Flow: Constellation Energy, the largest producer of carbon-free electricity in the U.S., reported a net income of $930 million last year, despite a year-over-year decline; however, its adjusted operating earnings improved from $860 million to $952 million, showcasing its steady cash flow and diversified energy portfolio.
- Price Volatility and Growth Potential: Vistra exhibits higher volatility with a beta of 1.44, and although its stock has slightly declined year-to-date, it trades at a reasonable forward P/E ratio of 15.5, indicating market optimism about its growth prospects, particularly due to its long-term nuclear agreement with Meta.
- Positive Signal from Buyback Policy: Vistra has completed $5.6 billion in share repurchases since 2021 and recently authorized an additional $1 billion, which is viewed as a bullish signal for long-term investors, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
- Diverse Investment Choices: Investors should choose stocks based on personal goals, with Constellation Energy being ideal for those seeking stability and cash flow, while Vistra may appeal to those willing to endure volatility for additional growth potential.
See More
Constellation Energy and Vistra: A Comparative Analysis
- Market Performance Decline: As of February 9, 2026, Constellation Energy's stock has fallen over 23%, reflecting market concerns about its profitability, although it still offers stable cash flow and a $1.55 annual dividend per share, making it attractive for income investors.
- Profitability Fluctuations: Constellation's adjusted operating earnings improved from $860 million in Q3 2024 to $952 million in 2025, despite a net income of $930 million, which decreased from the previous year, indicating that the company still needs to enhance operational efficiency to improve profitability metrics.
- Vistra's Diversification Advantage: Vistra's flexibility in the electricity market is evident in its diversified asset portfolio, including natural gas, nuclear, and renewable energy, while its long-term nuclear agreement with Meta has garnered investor interest, even though its stock has slightly declined year-to-date.
- Positive Buyback Policy: Vistra has completed $5.6 billion in share repurchases since 2021 and recently authorized another $1 billion, demonstrating confidence in future growth, although its higher volatility, with a beta of 1.44, requires investors to weigh risks against potential rewards.
See More
Jefferies Upgrades Vistra to Buy with $203 Price Target
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Vistra from Hold to Buy with a price target increase from $191 to $203, reflecting the analyst's optimism about future data center contracts despite a 25% stock drop since September.
- Cash Flow Appeal: The analyst highlighted that Vistra's free cash flow yield of approximately 12% for FY 2028 offers a compelling entry point compared to the 7%-8% yield seen over the past year, indicating a strong foundation for future growth potential.
- Market Dynamics Benefit: With heavy exposure to capacity markets and high electricity generation output, along with a large fleet of CCGTs, gas peakers, and nuclear plants, Vistra is expected to benefit from current positive power dynamics, with growth potential stemming from multiple factors rather than a single one.
- Development Opportunities: The analyst anticipates Vistra to articulate and quantify its opportunities for contracted brownfield development to unlock further equity value, and with over 10 GW in PJM and a large fleet, the company is seen as well-positioned for uprate and brownfield expansions to support growth.
See More
Jefferies Upgrades Vistra Corp to Buy, Sees 30% Upside
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Vistra Corp from hold to buy, arguing that the current share price does not accurately reflect the likelihood of future data center deals, indicating a potential undervaluation in the market.
- Price Target Increase: The investment bank raised Vistra's 12-month price target from $191 to $203, suggesting about a 30% upside from Monday's close, reflecting an optimistic outlook on the company's future growth prospects.
- Market Reaction: Vistra shares rose as much as 5.5% in early trading on Tuesday, indicating a positive market response to the upgrade, despite the stock being down approximately 25% since announcing a 1,200 megawatt power supply deal last September.
- Attractive Investment Opportunity: Jefferies analysts noted that while it is impossible to 'call bottom', the current market valuation of around $52 billion presents an attractive entry point for investors, especially given the strong demand for nuclear power from data center developers.
See More
Market Watch: Tech Stocks and Earnings Dynamics
- Chip Stock Focus: With Taiwan Semi reporting a 37% year-over-year sales increase, attention on chip stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom is rising, indicating a robust rebound in artificial intelligence demand that could drive stock performance.
- DuPont Earnings Beat: DuPont's fourth-quarter net sales, EBITDA, and adjusted EPS exceeded expectations, with adjusted EPS ranging from $2.25 to $2.30 compared to the consensus of $2.14, while management's 2026 outlook also surpassed market expectations, highlighting the company's strong growth potential.
- CVS Strong Quarter but Stock Drops: CVS reported an adjusted EPS of $1.09 for the fourth quarter, beating expectations of $0.99; however, the stock fell over 2% due to the full-year EPS midpoint being below market estimates, reflecting concerns about future profitability.
- Tesla Solar Investment Outlook: Morgan Stanley praised Tesla's decision to increase spending on solar manufacturing, estimating that Tesla Solar could add $20 billion to $50 billion in equity value to its energy valuation, demonstrating the company's strategic positioning in the renewable energy sector.
See More
