Hedgeye Introduces First Watch as a New Long Investment Recommendation
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 20 2025
0mins
Should l Buy FWRG?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Investment Potential: First Watch (NASDAQ: FWRG) is viewed as a promising investment with potential for over 30% upside, based on a price target exceeding $22 by applying an 11x EV/EBITDA multiple to 2026 estimates.
Growth Opportunities: Analyst Bennett Cheer highlights that First Watch has significant growth potential, with over 600 existing restaurants and visibility towards approximately 2,200 possible locations.
Execution and Margin Expansion: The company's success hinges on effective execution and margin expansion, which could lead to doubling the investment value within 2-3 years.
Future Plans: First Watch plans to open 62-67 new locations in 2025, indicating an acceleration in unit growth without needing a full buildout to achieve substantial shareholder returns.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy FWRG?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on FWRG
Wall Street analysts forecast FWRG stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 15.710
Low
17.00
Averages
21.75
High
24.00
Current: 15.710
Low
17.00
Averages
21.75
High
24.00
About FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. is a daytime dining concept company. The Company is engaged in serving made-to-order breakfast, brunch and lunch using fresh ingredients. Its menu includes elevated executions of classic favorites alongside specialties, such as its Quinoa Power Bowl, Lemon Ricotta Pancakes, Chickichanga, Morning Meditation fresh juice and signature Million Dollar Bacon. It operates and franchises restaurants in 29 states operating under the First Watch trade name, which are focused on made-to-order breakfast, brunch and lunch. It uses a variety of marketing channels, including affiliate partnerships, social media interactions, digital marketing, direct mailers, public relations initiatives and local community sponsorships, e-mail communications, promotions and partnerships. The Company operates restaurants through its wholly owned subsidiary, First Watch Restaurants, Inc., and is a franchisor through its wholly owned subsidiary, First Watch Franchise Development Co.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
US December Core CPI Rises 2.6% YoY, Significant Food Price Increases
- Core CPI Data: The US December core Consumer Price Index rose 2.6% year-over-year, slightly below economists' expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that could influence future monetary policy decisions.
- Food Price Increases: Food prices rose 3.1% year-over-year in December, with dining out prices up 4.1% and at-home food prices up 2.4%, directly impacting consumer spending and corporate profits.
- Beef Price Surge: Beef prices soared, with uncooked ground beef up 15.5%, roasts up 17.5%, and steaks up 17.8%, reflecting a combination of supply shortages and strong demand, with this trend expected to last for several years.
- Coffee Price Rise: Coffee prices increased by 19.8% year-over-year in December, and despite tariff relief in November, it remains unclear when retail prices will decline, potentially affecting the profitability of several coffee chain companies.
See More
First Watch Restaurant Group to Host Investor Meetings at ICR Conference on January 12
- Executive Meeting Schedule: First Watch's CEO Chris Tomasso and CFO Mel Hope will host a fireside chat at the 28th Annual ICR Conference on January 12, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. ET, aimed at conveying the company's latest developments and strategic direction to investors.
- Investor Engagement: Management will hold meetings with institutional investors on the same day, further strengthening relationships with investors and showcasing the company's growth potential, which is expected to attract more investor interest.
- Brand Influence: First Watch is renowned for its “Follow the Sun” culinary philosophy and high-quality breakfast and brunch offerings, operating over 620 restaurants across 32 states, committed to enhancing brand visibility and expanding market share.
- Community Contribution: The company has donated over $1.7 million to community organizations to date, demonstrating its commitment to social responsibility, which not only enhances brand image but may also attract more consumers who value corporate social responsibility.
See More
First Watch Appoints Rachel Tipograph to Board of Directors
- New Board Member: First Watch Restaurant Group has appointed Rachel Tipograph to its Board of Directors, bringing deep expertise in digital transformation and customer acquisition to support the company's brand expansion strategy.
- Rich Industry Experience: Tipograph, founder and CEO of MikMak, has over 11 years of technology and business experience, positioning her to help First Watch navigate the rapidly changing market landscape.
- Enhanced Leadership Team: With Tipograph joining existing board members, including Chairman Ralph Alvarez, the company strengthens its leadership capabilities in digital marketing and business strategy, aiming to drive brand innovation and market expansion.
- Brand Development Strategy: This appointment reflects First Watch's commitment to leveraging digital transformation to enhance customer experience, which is expected to drive continued growth in the competitive dining market.
See More
First Watch Appoints Rachel Tipograph to Board of Directors
- New Board Member: First Watch Restaurant Group appoints Rachel Tipograph to its Board of Directors, bringing her extensive expertise in digital transformation and customer acquisition, which is expected to drive the company's strategic development in innovation and expansion.
- Industry Background: Tipograph, the founder and CEO of MikMak, has over 11 years of experience in technology and business, particularly in digital marketing for global brands and retailers, providing valuable industry insights for First Watch.
- Leadership Team Enhancement: Tipograph's addition will strengthen the leadership team alongside existing board members like Ralph Alvarez, creating a robust team to tackle market challenges and drive growth strategies for First Watch.
- Brand Expansion Potential: With over 620 restaurants across 32 states, Tipograph's digital expertise is poised to enhance First Watch's position in the competitive dining market, further expanding its customer base and market share.
See More
Restaurant Leaders Share Strategies for Attracting Customers During Tough Times
Rising Costs: Increasing bills and higher menu prices are making dining out less appealing.
Job Market Concerns: A shaky job market is prompting people to reconsider their spending habits, including eating out.
Leftovers Advantage: Eating dinner at home allows for the benefit of banking leftovers, which can save money.
Home Dining Benefits: The combination of financial pressures and the convenience of home-cooked meals is encouraging more people to dine at home.
See More
First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) Stock Surpasses 200-Day Moving Average
Stock Performance: FWRG's stock has a 52-week low of $12.90 and a high of $22.71, with the last trade recorded at $17.68.
Market Analysis: The article mentions other stocks that have recently crossed above their 200-day moving average, indicating potential market trends.
Author's Perspective: The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent Nasdaq, Inc.
Investment Insight: The information provided may be useful for investors looking to analyze stock performance and market movements.
See More
US December Core CPI Rises 2.6% YoY, Significant Food Price Increases
- Core CPI Data: The US December core Consumer Price Index rose 2.6% year-over-year, slightly below economists' expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that could influence future monetary policy decisions.
- Food Price Increases: Food prices rose 3.1% year-over-year in December, with dining out prices up 4.1% and at-home food prices up 2.4%, directly impacting consumer spending and corporate profits.
- Beef Price Surge: Beef prices soared, with uncooked ground beef up 15.5%, roasts up 17.5%, and steaks up 17.8%, reflecting a combination of supply shortages and strong demand, with this trend expected to last for several years.
- Coffee Price Rise: Coffee prices increased by 19.8% year-over-year in December, and despite tariff relief in November, it remains unclear when retail prices will decline, potentially affecting the profitability of several coffee chain companies.
See More
First Watch Restaurant Group to Host Investor Meetings at ICR Conference on January 12
- Executive Meeting Schedule: First Watch's CEO Chris Tomasso and CFO Mel Hope will host a fireside chat at the 28th Annual ICR Conference on January 12, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. ET, aimed at conveying the company's latest developments and strategic direction to investors.
- Investor Engagement: Management will hold meetings with institutional investors on the same day, further strengthening relationships with investors and showcasing the company's growth potential, which is expected to attract more investor interest.
- Brand Influence: First Watch is renowned for its “Follow the Sun” culinary philosophy and high-quality breakfast and brunch offerings, operating over 620 restaurants across 32 states, committed to enhancing brand visibility and expanding market share.
- Community Contribution: The company has donated over $1.7 million to community organizations to date, demonstrating its commitment to social responsibility, which not only enhances brand image but may also attract more consumers who value corporate social responsibility.
See More
First Watch Appoints Rachel Tipograph to Board of Directors
- New Board Member: First Watch Restaurant Group has appointed Rachel Tipograph to its Board of Directors, bringing deep expertise in digital transformation and customer acquisition to support the company's brand expansion strategy.
- Rich Industry Experience: Tipograph, founder and CEO of MikMak, has over 11 years of technology and business experience, positioning her to help First Watch navigate the rapidly changing market landscape.
- Enhanced Leadership Team: With Tipograph joining existing board members, including Chairman Ralph Alvarez, the company strengthens its leadership capabilities in digital marketing and business strategy, aiming to drive brand innovation and market expansion.
- Brand Development Strategy: This appointment reflects First Watch's commitment to leveraging digital transformation to enhance customer experience, which is expected to drive continued growth in the competitive dining market.
See More
First Watch Appoints Rachel Tipograph to Board of Directors
- New Board Member: First Watch Restaurant Group appoints Rachel Tipograph to its Board of Directors, bringing her extensive expertise in digital transformation and customer acquisition, which is expected to drive the company's strategic development in innovation and expansion.
- Industry Background: Tipograph, the founder and CEO of MikMak, has over 11 years of experience in technology and business, particularly in digital marketing for global brands and retailers, providing valuable industry insights for First Watch.
- Leadership Team Enhancement: Tipograph's addition will strengthen the leadership team alongside existing board members like Ralph Alvarez, creating a robust team to tackle market challenges and drive growth strategies for First Watch.
- Brand Expansion Potential: With over 620 restaurants across 32 states, Tipograph's digital expertise is poised to enhance First Watch's position in the competitive dining market, further expanding its customer base and market share.
See More
Restaurant Leaders Share Strategies for Attracting Customers During Tough Times
Rising Costs: Increasing bills and higher menu prices are making dining out less appealing.
Job Market Concerns: A shaky job market is prompting people to reconsider their spending habits, including eating out.
Leftovers Advantage: Eating dinner at home allows for the benefit of banking leftovers, which can save money.
Home Dining Benefits: The combination of financial pressures and the convenience of home-cooked meals is encouraging more people to dine at home.
See More
First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) Stock Surpasses 200-Day Moving Average
Stock Performance: FWRG's stock has a 52-week low of $12.90 and a high of $22.71, with the last trade recorded at $17.68.
Market Analysis: The article mentions other stocks that have recently crossed above their 200-day moving average, indicating potential market trends.
Author's Perspective: The views expressed in the article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent Nasdaq, Inc.
Investment Insight: The information provided may be useful for investors looking to analyze stock performance and market movements.
See More
