Healthcare Stocks Performance in Economic Recession
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 04 2026
0mins
Should l Buy JNJ?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Defensive Healthcare Advantage: Large-cap healthcare stocks like Johnson & Johnson and CVS Health exhibit strong performance during economic downturns, with low beta values (0.33 for JNJ and 0.46 for CVS) indicating smaller losses during market declines, thus providing a stable income source for risk-averse investors.
- Rising Recession Risks: The ongoing conflict in Iran has led to soaring energy and food prices, increasing the risk of a global economic recession, prompting investors to gravitate towards healthcare stocks to mitigate potential market volatility and uncertainty.
- High-Risk, High-Reward Strategy: Smaller healthcare companies such as Grail and Viking Therapeutics present high-risk, high-reward investment opportunities; despite Grail's multi-cancer early detection test failing to meet primary endpoints, follow-up data could potentially shift market perceptions positively.
- Portfolio Diversification: In light of increasing economic uncertainty, building a diversified portfolio of small healthcare companies can effectively mitigate stock-specific risks, particularly those reliant on clinical trial outcomes, which may offer potential returns amidst market fluctuations.
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Analyst Views on JNJ
Wall Street analysts forecast JNJ stock price to fall
20 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 234.540
Low
190.00
Averages
218.50
High
240.00
Current: 234.540
Low
190.00
Averages
218.50
High
240.00
About JNJ
Johnson & Johnson and its subsidiaries are engaged in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of a range of products in the healthcare field. The Company’s segments include Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment is focused on various therapeutic areas, including immunology, infectious diseases, neuroscience, oncology, pulmonary hypertension, cardiovascular and metabolism. Its products include REMICADE (infliximab), SIMPONI (golimumab), SIMPONI ARIA (golimumab), STELARA (ustekinumab), TREMFYA (guselkumab), EDURANT (rilpivirine), and INVEGA SUSTENNA/XEPLION (paliperidone palmitate). The MedTech segment includes a portfolio of products used in cardiovascular, orthopedics, surgery, and vision categories. The Cardiovascular portfolio includes electrophysiology products to treat heart rhythm disorders and circulatory restoration products (Shockwave) for the treatment of calcified coronary artery disease (CAD) and peripheral artery disease (PAD).
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Earnings Beat Expectations: Johnson & Johnson's Q1 2026 earnings report exceeded expectations with approximately $4 billion in revenue from its blood cancer treatment Darzalex, yet investor response was muted, leading to a slight decline in stock price post-release.
- Drug Sales Dynamics: Tremfya, used for treating inflammatory bowel disease and psoriasis, generated $1.6 billion in sales; however, the expiration of Stelara's patent resulted in a significant drop in sales from $1.6 billion in Q1 2025 to $656 million in Q1 2026, highlighting increased competitive pressures.
- Stock Price Analysis: Despite a robust 52% increase in stock price over the past year, recent muted market reactions following the earnings report have led to a pullback, indicating a lack of significant news to drive stock price movements in the short term, warranting caution from investors.
- Long-Term Investment Outlook: Johnson & Johnson has consistently increased its dividend for 64 consecutive years, showcasing stability, and with a promising drug pipeline, despite a higher forward price-to-earnings ratio, it remains attractive by blending stability with upside potential.
See More
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- Revenue and Earnings Growth: Intuitive Surgical reported $10.1 billion in revenue for 2025, marking a 21% increase, with earnings per share (EPS) of $7.87, up 22.5%, reflecting strong performance and sustained market demand in the medical device sector.
- Surgical System Usage: The da Vinci robotic platform has performed over 20 million surgeries, with the da Vinci Xi system alone used in over 3 million procedures last year, solidifying its leadership in the global multiport robotic surgery market.
- Increased Market Competition: Despite holding a dominant position in robotic surgery, the entry of competitors like Johnson & Johnson and Medtronic, along with Restore Robotics' alternative tools, may pressure its market share, although revenue and procedure volumes continue to rise.
- Technological Innovation and Investment: Intuitive Surgical invested $1.3 billion in R&D last year, and the rollout of the da Vinci 5 system, featuring force feedback technology, is expected to be a major growth catalyst for 2026, further strengthening its market position.
See More
Intuitive Surgical: Leader in Robotic Surgery Market
- Market Dominance: Intuitive Surgical's da Vinci Xi system is the most widely used multiport robotic surgery system globally, utilized in over 3 million surgeries last year; despite a more than 17% drop in stock price this year, its market share remains robust.
- Training Barrier: Most surgeons trained on the da Vinci platform during residency face significant retraining to switch to competitors' systems, making hospitals reluctant to disrupt established workflows in high-stakes surgery, thereby solidifying Intuitive's market position.
- Economic Cycle Advantage: With over 12,100 systems installed globally, 81% of Intuitive's revenue comes from recurring sales of instruments, accessories, and services, making it unlikely for hospitals to replace existing da Vinci systems even if they purchase a competitor's robot due to substantial capital already invested.
- Innovation Drive: The company invested $1.3 billion in R&D last year, with the rollout of the da Vinci 5 expected to be a major catalyst for 2026; its force feedback technology can reduce applied force by up to 43%, improving surgical outcomes and enhancing competitive strength.
See More
Johnson & Johnson's Stock Pullback Amid Strong Momentum
- Earnings Beat: Johnson & Johnson's Q1 2026 earnings surpassed expectations, with notable sales growth from drugs like Darzalex generating $4 billion and Tremfya at $1.6 billion, indicating ongoing progress in its pharmaceutical segment.
- Muted Stock Reaction: Despite positive earnings, the stock fell 0.15%, reflecting investor concerns, particularly after Stelara's patent expiration led to a sales drop from $1.6 billion to $656 million due to increased generic competition.
- Market Outlook: In the short term, Johnson & Johnson's stock may lack significant news catalysts, but its promising drug pipeline and a history of 64 consecutive years of dividend increases suggest long-term stability.
- Valuation Concerns: While the company offers a mix of stability and upside potential, its forward price-to-earnings ratio is higher than in recent quarters, prompting investors to carefully consider the merits of holding shares during this pullback.
See More
Teva's FDA Approval of Long-Acting Drug Could Be Major Catalyst
- New Drug Approval Outlook: Teva's New Drug Application for long-acting schizophrenia drug olanzapine has been accepted by the FDA, and if approved, it is expected to significantly enhance patient adherence, driving sales growth and becoming the company's most meaningful catalyst.
- Specialty Drug Sales Surge: Teva's Austedo generated $2.26 billion in sales in 2025, marking a 34% year-over-year increase, with expectations to reach between $2.4 billion and $2.55 billion in 2026, showcasing strong momentum in the specialty drug sector.
- Biosimilar Market Expansion: Teva plans to launch six new biosimilars in 2026 and 2027, potentially competing with Amgen and Johnson & Johnson, which will further solidify its position as the second-largest player in the biosimilar market.
- Investor Confidence Boost: Analysts are optimistic about Teva's future, with 12 out of 15 analysts rating the stock as a
See More
Teva Pharmaceutical Shares Surge 130% with Optimistic Outlook
- FDA Approval Catalyst: Teva's long-acting olanzapine injectable suspension NDA has been accepted by the FDA, with a decision expected later this year; approval could significantly enhance patient adherence, with combined annual sales with Uzedy projected to exceed $2 billion.
- Specialty Drug Sales Surge: Teva's specialty drug Austedo generated $2.26 billion in sales in 2025, a 34% year-over-year increase, with expectations for 2026 sales to rise between $2.4 billion and $2.55 billion, reflecting strong market demand and competitive positioning in the specialty drug sector.
- Biosimilar Expansion: Teva plans to launch six new biosimilars in 2026 and 2027, further solidifying its position as the second-largest player in the biosimilar market, with anticipated competition against giants like Amgen and Johnson & Johnson, driving future revenue growth.
- Market Risk Factors: Despite several catalysts propelling stock price growth, a market crash or significant pipeline issues could derail Teva's momentum; however, the company's pipeline is relatively de-risked, and with a forward P/E of only 11.7, it presents a compelling value investment opportunity.
See More
