Goldman Sachs Updates U.S. Conviction List with New Additions
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Mar 02 2026
0mins
Should l Buy COP?
Source: seekingalpha
- New Additions: Goldman Sachs updated its U.S. conviction list at the start of the month, adding ConocoPhillips (COP) and Loar Holdings (LOAR), while removing Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), MSG Entertainment (MSGE), and Valero Energy (VLO), indicating a proactive approach to new investment opportunities.
- ConocoPhillips Outlook: Analysts highlighted that ConocoPhillips is on the verge of a positive free cash flow inflection, expected to transition over the next three years from heavy project investments to an ‘investment harvesting’ phase, with major projects coming online and reduced capex, significantly improving its financial health.
- Loar Holdings Growth Potential: As an aerospace parts supplier, Loar Holdings is recognized as a high-quality Aerospace & Defense ‘earnings compounder,’ with strong margins and free cash conversion, positioned well for long-term growth and margin expansion in its early stages.
- Market Reaction: Goldman’s update reflects keen insights into market dynamics, particularly in the energy and aerospace sectors, prompting investors to monitor these companies' performances and potential returns in the evolving economic landscape.
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Analyst Views on COP
Wall Street analysts forecast COP stock price to fall
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 117.030
Low
98.00
Averages
115.67
High
133.00
Current: 117.030
Low
98.00
Averages
115.67
High
133.00
About COP
ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company. Its Alaska segment primarily explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. The Lower 48 segment consists of operations located in the 48 contiguous states in the United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Canadian operations consist of the Surmont oil sands development in Alberta, the liquids-rich Montney unconventional play in British Columbia and commercial operations. The Europe, Middle East and North Africa segment consists of operations principally located in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, Qatar, Libya, Equatorial Guinea and commercial and terminalling operations in the United Kingdom. Asia Pacific segment has exploration and production operations in China, Malaysia, Australia and commercial operations in China, Singapore and Japan. Other International segment includes interests in Colombia as well as contingencies associated with prior operations in other countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Escalating U.S. Military Actions: U.S. Defense Secretary warned of the most intense strikes on Iran, with Central Command confirming the sinking of several Iranian ships, including 16 mine layers, indicating a significant increase in U.S. military presence in the region, which could impact global oil prices and market sentiment.
- Oil Price Volatility: Asia-Pacific markets traded higher as global oil prices softened, with G7 discussions on using emergency crude reserves to ease supply constraints, highlighting international efforts to stabilize oil prices, which may influence future market trends.
- Focus on U.S. Inflation Data: U.S. stock futures hovered near flat ahead of key consumer inflation data, with economists expecting a 2.4% year-over-year rise in CPI, which will provide clearer insights into the strength of the U.S. economy and influence investor decisions.
See More
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- Military Escalation: The U.S. Central Command reported that American forces sank several Iranian ships, including 16 minelayers, near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, responding to Iran's threat of mining the waterway, which could severely impact global energy supplies.
- Oil Price Volatility: Oil prices surged to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday due to escalating conflict, although they have since retreated, with U.S. WTI crude trading at $83.8 and global benchmark Brent at $87.9, reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Iranian Naval Capability: Despite CNN's report of Iran laying a few mines recently in the Strait, Iran retains over 80% of its small boats and minelayers, potentially laying hundreds of mines, which could further escalate regional tensions.
- U.S. Navy Response Strategy: President Trump stated he ordered the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance for all maritime trade through the Gulf, although the U.S. Navy has declined shipping industry requests for escort due to high attack risks, potentially affecting energy transport security.
See More
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- Crude Export Figures: Since the onset of the conflict on February 28, Iran has exported at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil to China via the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that despite the escalating tensions, Iran is maintaining its energy supply relationship with its primary market to meet demand.
- Shipping Security Risks: The war has significantly reduced shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with the International Maritime Organization reporting that ten vessels were attacked by Iran shortly after the conflict began, resulting in at least seven seafarer fatalities, thereby increasing shipping risks and uncertainties.
- Alternative Export Channels: Iran has resumed loading crude oil at the Jask oil and gas terminal, which, despite its lower efficiency, signals Tehran's exploration of alternative export routes outside the Strait of Hormuz to mitigate potential supply disruptions.
- China's Strategic Reserves: In 2023, China accelerated its oil stockpiling efforts, with imports rising 15.8% year-on-year in the first two months, demonstrating that amid escalating global energy supply risks, China is proactively preparing for future energy demands.
See More
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- Historic Investment: President Trump announced that the U.S. will get its first oil refinery in 50 years, funded by Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries, with a staggering $300 billion deal marking the largest in U.S. history.
- Enhanced National Security: The new refinery, located at the port of Brownsville, Texas, is designed to process 100% American shale oil, aiming to bolster national security and significantly increase U.S. energy production capabilities.
- Significant Economic Impact: Trump stated that the project will deliver billions of dollars in economic impact, further driving the domestic energy sector's growth and creating numerous job opportunities in related industries.
- Environmental Commitment: The refinery is set to be the cleanest in the world, reflecting a commitment to environmental sustainability while showcasing the U.S.'s strategic shift towards sustainable energy production.
See More
Oil Prices Plunge Amid Middle East Tensions Impacting Markets
- Oil Price Volatility: Oil prices closed over 11% lower as traders anticipated that several countries would tap into emergency crude reserves to mitigate supply disruptions caused by the ongoing Middle East conflict, highlighting the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
- Mixed U.S. Stock Market: Despite the significant drop in oil prices, U.S. stocks ended the day mixed as investors weighed the pullback against the risks of further escalation, reflecting the complex reactions to fluctuating energy prices.
- Semiconductor Industry Pressure: Analysts warned that the prolonged conflict in the Middle East could impact the semiconductor industry's access to key materials, while rising energy costs might suppress demand for chips, introducing uncertainty into the industry's outlook.
- Oracle's Strong Earnings: Oracle reported earnings that exceeded expectations and issued strong guidance, boosting its stock by nearly 10% in after-hours trading, alleviating investor concerns regarding the company's hefty debt load and showcasing its growth potential in the AI sector.
See More
Investors Must Exercise Caution Amid Market Volatility
- Increased Market Volatility: Amid the backdrop of the Iran war, both stock and oil markets experienced sharp fluctuations, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both closing moderately lower, reflecting investor anxiety and market uncertainty.
- Investor Psychology Impact: CNBC's Jim Cramer cautioned that frequent buying and selling in the current market environment could lead to mistakes, advising investors to remain calm and avoid anxiety due to market swings.
- Oil Market Turmoil: Oil prices saw wild fluctuations during the trading day as traders anticipated a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves globally, but a statement from the U.S. Energy Secretary on social media further unsettled the market, causing oil prices to settle well off their session lows.
- Hedge Fund Pressure: Cramer noted that the current market uncertainty puts pressure on hedge fund managers, who must respond to client concerns, while individual investors can choose to do nothing, thus maintaining an advantage in this chaotic environment.
See More
