Etsy Stock Down 82% from Peak, Caution Advised for Investors
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 01 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ETSY?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Unique Market Position: Etsy differentiates itself from Amazon by offering unique handcrafted and vintage goods, with a 2023 survey indicating that 83% of buyers believe its marketplace features items they can't find elsewhere, providing a competitive edge in the crowded e-commerce space.
- Declining Financial Performance: Despite Etsy's attractive price-to-sales ratio of 2.3, its gross merchandise sales for Q3 2025 were $2.4 billion, an 11% decline year-over-year, indicating reduced consumer spending on discretionary items, which negatively impacts revenue growth.
- Rising Cost Pressures: Increased expenses in product development and marketing are challenging Etsy's growth potential, despite its asset-light business model, leading investors to be cautious about the company's financial health.
- Cautious Investment Advice: While Etsy's stock appears cheap, analysts recommend waiting for clear fundamental improvements before investing, particularly in light of the overall slowdown in e-commerce growth.
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Analyst Views on ETSY
Wall Street analysts forecast ETSY stock price to rise
26 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
18 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 46.240
Low
52.00
Averages
67.71
High
80.00
Current: 46.240
Low
52.00
Averages
67.71
High
80.00
About ETSY
Etsy, Inc. operates two-sided online marketplaces that connect buyers and sellers around the world. The Company's primary marketplace, Etsy.com, is the global destination for goods made by independent sellers. In addition to its core Etsy marketplace, its House of Brand consists of Depop Limited (Depop), which is its fashion resale marketplace. Each marketplace primarily operates independently, while benefiting from shared expertise in product development, marketing, technology, and customer support. The Company's top six retail categories on the Etsy marketplace include homewares and home furnishings, jewelry and personal accessories, apparel, craft supplies, paper and party supplies, and toys and games.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Walmart Earnings Expectations: Analysts anticipate Walmart will report its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, with net sales expected to rise approximately 4% and operating income potentially increasing by 11%, further solidifying its status as a trillion-dollar company.
- Consumer Health Insights: Investors will closely monitor Walmart's commentary on consumer health and its 2026 financial guidance to assess future market trends and corporate strategy.
- FOMC Meeting Minutes Release: The minutes from the January FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, providing insights into policymakers' views on the path of interest rates, especially after holding rates steady at the start of the year, which has generated significant market interest.
- Personal Consumption Expenditures Data: On Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data will be released, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and the market will be keen to see if it confirms that inflation is steadily cooling or prompts the Fed to maintain a cautious stance.
See More
Etsy Options Trading Analysis and Strategies
- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $40.00 put option is $1.10, and if an investor sells-to-open this option, they commit to buying the stock at $40.00, effectively lowering their cost basis to $38.90, which represents a 16% discount compared to the current price of $47.66, making it attractive for potential Etsy investors.
- Yield Potential Analysis: Should the put option expire worthless, the premium would yield a 2.75% return on the cash commitment, or an annualized yield of 20.50%, referred to as YieldBoost, highlighting the strategy's potential appeal.
- Call Option Returns: The $50.00 call option has a current bid of $2.50, and if an investor buys Etsy shares at $47.66 and sells this call option, they could achieve a total return of 10.16% if the stock is called away at expiration, showcasing the profit potential of this strategy.
- Risk-Reward Tradeoff: The $50.00 call option represents a 5% premium over the current stock price, with a 54% chance of expiring worthless, allowing investors to retain both their shares and the premium collected, thereby enhancing their overall investment returns.
See More
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- Walmart's AI Strategy: Walmart is not investing heavily in artificial intelligence but is prepared to utilize AI tools developed by major tech companies.
- Collaboration with Big Tech: The retail giant is waiting to implement AI advancements that come from the significant research and development efforts of Big Tech firms.
See More
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- Values and Investment Decisions: An Italian investor explores the duality of Robinhood's tools while contemplating whether to hold its stock, emphasizing the importance of balancing personal values with social impact in investing, reflecting investors' concerns about ethical responsibility.
- Lessons from History: David Gardner reflects on past market fluctuations, highlighting that history is not just nostalgia but a source of confidence for investors, reminding them to maintain patience and optimism in uncertain markets.
- Optimism and Long-Term Investing: Tom shares his journey of wealth accumulation through long-term investing and compounding, emphasizing the key role of patience and a positive mindset in achieving investment success, encouraging more people to believe in their ability to succeed in investing.
See More
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- Position Change: Hussman Strategic Advisors disclosed in an SEC filing that it sold its entire position of 126,000 shares in TG Therapeutics, which previously represented 1.0% of its assets under management, indicating a cautious outlook on the company's future performance.
- Financial Performance: TG Therapeutics reported preliminary fourth-quarter revenue of $182 million for its main product as of January 30, and despite a significant 92.8% year-over-year growth to $161.7 million in the third quarter, the overall performance could not offset the 11.8% decline in its stock over the past year.
- Market Comparison: The underperformance of TG Therapeutics' stock, losing 11.8%, contrasts sharply with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500's gains of 20% and 15.8%, respectively, highlighting a lack of competitive edge in the biotechnology sector that may pose higher risks for investors.
- Investor Implications: The complete exit by Hussman suggests a diminishing confidence in TG Therapeutics, prompting investors to closely monitor the company's future strategic partnerships and clinical program developments to assess potential growth opportunities in oncology and immunology markets.
See More
Hussman Increases Etsy Stake to 1.13% of AUM
- Increased Holdings: Hussman Strategic Advisors added 42,000 shares of Etsy in Q4 2025, valued at $2.56 million, raising its total Etsy holdings to $4.66 million, an increase of $1.87 million from the previous quarter, indicating confidence in Etsy's future growth potential.
- Stake Proportion Rise: This purchase brought Hussman's stake in Etsy to 1.13%, making it the fund's second-largest holding, reflecting a strategic emphasis on Etsy's potential in the e-commerce market, despite the core business showing sluggish growth.
- Market Performance: As of January 30, 2026, Etsy shares were priced at $52.96, down 5.53% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 18 percentage points, indicating market caution regarding its future growth prospects.
- Growth Potential: While Etsy's core marketplace growth is slow, its secondhand fashion app, Depop, achieved 39% GMS growth in Q3, with the U.S. market growing even faster at 59%, showcasing Etsy's success in diversifying its business, which may support future shareholder returns.
See More
